7:50 Killarney
The 7:50 at Killarney is an apprentice handicap over 1m6f80y on good ground with a field of ten modest performers. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Chicago Moon on 64, with Trubshaw a narrow second on 63 and the remainder ranging from 57 down to 39. A lone-leader pace shape with high confidence suggests an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those racing off the pace to overcome in the closing stages.
How the race shapes up
With a lone-leader pace shape carrying high confidence, Trubshaw is expected to bowl along in front with little to no pressure in the early stages. Most of the field, including the selection Chicago Moon, Lady Plimsoll, Celestially, Numidia, Jurality, Charlie Brow'n, Queen Of Astolat and Espritroyale, are held-up types who will be produced late. Desert Friend is the only prominent runner likely to track the leader. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will give the front-runner an advantage that the closers cannot bridge in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Chicago Moon KTB Selection64/100Modest performer who has already won once over this course in two runs.
- 2Trubshaw63/100Modest performer who has won over this trip but has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts.
- 3Lady Plimsoll57/100Modest performer who has been consistent of late with three straight placed efforts and holds a solid 1-4 record on good ground.
- 4Celestially57/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with a placed effort at this trip on his last two starts.
- 5Numidia56/100Modest performer who has won two of his last three starts and now steps up in trip.
- 6Jurality51/100Modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year and arrives in reasonable form after a string of placed efforts.
- 7Charlie Brow'n43/100Modest performer who has placed here once and is 2 from 3 on good ground.
- 8Queen Of Astolat42/100Limited performer who has shown little sign of improving her modest form this year.
- 9Desert Friend39/100Desert Friend is a limited performer with a patchy recent record of 919044 and plenty of miles on the clock.
- 10Espritroyale39/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency of late, finishing second in two of his last three starts including over this trip.
The contenders
Chicago Moon KTB Fit 64/100
Chicago Moon is a modest performer who has already won once over this course in two runs. He steps up sharply in trip today having last run over a mile and three and a half furlongs so this longer distance is an unknown. The Henry De Bromhead yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Killarney from a big sample of 415 runs while the 7lb claimer Conor Cusack has a 100% strike rate at the track from one ride and an A/E of 3. Chicago Moon holds a 1-2 record on good ground and is 1-2 at the course. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be coming from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it. He is the KTB Selection.
Trubshaw KTB Fit 63/100
Trubshaw is a modest performer who has won over this trip but has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. First-time headgear is now tried in a bid to spark a revival. The Henry De Bromhead yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Killarney from a big sample of 415 runs while the jockey Gabriella Hill has no recorded rides here. He has been placed twice from eight starts on good ground without winning and has no course form on record. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is ideally suited to the lone-leader shape and could prove hard to peg back if allowed an uncontested lead.
Lady Plimsoll KTB Fit 57/100
Lady Plimsoll is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with three straight placed efforts and holds a solid 1-4 record on good ground. She steps up to 1m6f for the first time having been placed without winning at the trip in one previous try. The M D O'Callaghan yard has a 12% strike rate at Killarney from 42 runs while this is the jockey Reese Holohan's first ride at the track. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need to bridge the gap to a potential lone leader in the straight. Her recent placed form makes her a solid each-way contender in a race lacking depth.
Celestially KTB Fit 57/100
Celestially is a modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with a placed effort at this trip on his last two starts. He has been placed once from two runs here and handles good ground, though he remains winless after eight career outings. The Donnacha Aidan O'Brien yard has a strong 30% strike rate at Killarney from 30 runs while jockey Paddy Harnett operates at a 7% strike rate from 44 rides at the track. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be another closing late in a race where the leader may not come back. His course placings add interest in a modest event.
Numidia KTB Fit 56/100
Numidia is a modest performer who has won two of his last three starts and now steps up in trip. He has won at this distance before and holds a solid record on good ground with three wins from 12 starts. The Peter Lawlor yard has a 100% strike rate at Killarney from one run while jockey Mel Sheridan has a 0% strike rate from two rides here. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be produced with a late run. This is his first run at the course and the limited trainer and jockey data at Killarney make him harder to assess, though his recent winning form cannot be ignored.
The rest of the field
JuralityKTB Fit 51/100
Jurality is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year and arrives in reasonable form after a string of placed efforts. He has run twice at Killarney without placing and drops back in trip today having been placed once at this distance. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at the track from 99 runs while the jockey has a strong 23% record here from 13 rides.
Charlie Brow'nKTB Fit 43/100
Charlie Brow'n is a modest performer who has placed here once and is 2 from 3 on good ground. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance, which looks a positive on his record. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 350 runs at Killarney and the jockey has a 0% record from five rides.
Queen Of AstolatKTB Fit 42/100
Queen Of Astolat is a limited performer who has shown little sign of improving her modest form this year. She steps up in trip again today having failed to make an impact over 1m5½f last time, though she has tried this distance once before without success. The trainer strikes at 8% here from 245 runs while the jockey has a solid 15% record from 13 rides at the track.
Desert FriendKTB Fit 39/100
Desert Friend is a limited performer with a patchy recent record and plenty of miles on the clock. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has won at before, and his record on good ground reads a respectable 2-4-18. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 21 runs at Killarney while the jockey fares slightly better with a 10% record from 20 rides here.
EspritroyaleKTB Fit 39/100
Espritroyale is a modest performer who has shown some consistency of late, finishing second in two of his last three starts including over this trip. He has been placed without winning at the distance on his only attempt and the yard have a modest record here. The jockey also has a low strike rate at Killarney from a small sample of rides.
KTB verdict
Chicago Moon is the KTB Selection. He has already won over this course in two starts and the yard's solid 17% strike rate at Killarney from a large sample gives him a strong chance, even with the unknown of the step up in trip. The 7lb claimer has performed well on his one previous ride at the track. His main dangers are likely to be Trubshaw, who could take full advantage of the lone-leader shape with first-time headgear applied, and the consistent Lady Plimsoll who has been placed on her last three starts.
KTB Selection Chicago Moon
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 21 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Moon | 3/1 | BresBet |
| Trubshaw | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Lady Plimsoll | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Celestially | 9/2 | BetTom |
| Numidia | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Jurality | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Charlie Brow'n | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Queen Of Astolat | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Desert Friend | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Espritroyale | 5/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 7:50 Killarney. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Killarney racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Trubshaw, whose front-running style fits the lone-leader pace shape with high confidence.
How many wins has Chicago Moon recorded at Killarney?
One win from two runs at the course.
What is the trainer strike rate at Killarney for the yard of the selection?
Henry De Bromhead has a 17% strike rate at Killarney from 415 runs with an A/E of 1.
Which runner is trying first-time headgear?
Trubshaw.
How many of the field are held-up types?
Eight of the ten runners are usually held up, including the selection Chicago Moon.
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