7:50 Limerick
The 7:50 at Limerick is the second division of the Cosgrave Transport Handicap over 7f on good to yielding ground. A field of 14 modest performers lines up, with official ratings clustered in the low to mid 60s and recent form suggesting few are in top form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Methgal on 60, with Zabriskie Point just behind on 59, pointing to a competitive but low-grade contest where course experience and how the strong pace unfolds could be decisive.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace likely and at least two habitual front-runners present, the race is expected to be run at a solid clip that could cause the leaders to fold late. Methgal and Harry Longabaugh are the main pace influences, while prominent racers such as Queen Of Newark will track them closely. This shape should play into the hands of hold-up performers like Zabriskie Point and Exceeding, posing the key question of whether any of the pace-setters can withstand the late challenge from those coming from off the speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Methgal KTB Selection60/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip from nine attempts but has otherwise struggled to make a serious impact.
- 2Zabriskie Point59/100Modest performer who has shown bits of form this year without winning, including a placed effort on this ground.
- 3Dinamine50/100Modest performer who has run well here without winning, finishing placed on three of his four visits to Limerick.
- 4Queen Of Newark48/100Modest filly who has shown little in handicaps and was well held when dropped back into that grade at Down Royal last time.
- 5Tynamite47/100Modest 12-year-old who has been on the go a long time and arrives in poor form after two heavy defeats this year.
- 6Concaire45/100Modest performer who has shown just one spark in four starts, finishing sixth of 14 on handicap debut at Roscommon last month.
- 7Unfamiliar45/100Modest performer who has failed to win in seven starts and has shown very little spark on her last few outings.
- 8Gobi Star42/100Gobi Star is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with six straight poor efforts.
- 9Run Forrest Run41/100Modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been largely out of form for some time.
- 10Sosperi41/100Modest performer who showed little in five runs last season and now tries headgear for the first time.
- 11Exceeding41/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip from 12 attempts but has been largely out of form this year with a best RPR of just 62.
- 12Green Icon39/100Modest performer who has struggled for form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 13Harry Longabaugh38/100Harry Longabaugh is a modest performer who has failed to build on his maiden form in two handicap starts this year.
- 14Pick A Window33/100Limited performer who has shown very little in five maidens and now starts handicap life from a basement mark.
The contenders
Methgal KTB Fit 60/100
Methgal is a modest performer who has won once over this trip from nine attempts but has otherwise struggled to make a serious impact. The 4-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence and lines up from draw 7. He has shown little on good to yielding ground in two starts and this is his first visit to Limerick. Trainer P J F Murphy has an 8% strike rate at the track from 24 runs with an A/E of 1.18, while claiming jockey Conor Cusack boasts a 100% strike rate at Limerick from one ride and an A/E of 3.25. The combination of trainer and jockey records reads 3/20 with an A/E of 1.31 and positive LSP of +£9.83. Recent form of 812290 gives him a recent win to his name though he has been below that level lately, with figures of RPR 64 and TS 55.
Zabriskie Point KTB Fit 59/100
Zabriskie Point is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year without winning, including a placed effort on this ground. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence, drawn widest in 12. He has won over today's trip but is 0-18 in recent seasons and now makes his first visit to Limerick. Trainer Adrian McGuinness has an 8% strike rate at Limerick from 144 runs with an A/E of 0.74, offset by jockey Sam Coen's 33% strike rate at the track from six rides and an A/E of 3.26. The pair's combined record stands at 12/107 with an A/E of 0.84. He has been placed once from one run on good to yielding and recent form of 983525 shows consistent if modest efforts, backed by figures of RPR 66 and TS 56.
Dinamine KTB Fit 50/100
Dinamine is a modest performer who has run well here without winning, finishing placed on three of his four visits to Limerick. The 8-year-old typically settles in midfield with medium confidence from draw 10 and steps up from 6f to a trip he has won over in the past. His record on good to yielding ground reads a solid 1-2-4 from four starts. Trainer Michael Mulvany and jockey Wesley Joyce both have modest records at the track, the trainer on 8% from 64 runs with an A/E of 0.86 and the jockey on 7% from 14 rides with an A/E of 0.8. Their combined record is 37/485 with an A/E of 0.91. Recent form of 3531-0 includes a win last season, and he brings figures of RPR 67 and TS 57.
Queen Of Newark KTB Fit 48/100
Queen Of Newark is a modest filly who has shown little in handicaps and was well held when dropped back into that grade at Down Royal last time. The 3-year-old usually races handily on or close to the lead with high confidence and is drawn in stall one which could help. She did manage a placed effort at this trip on her third start. Trainer Matthew J Smith has an 8% strike rate here from 49 runs with an A/E of 0.66, while jockey Robbie Colgan operates at 3% from 258 rides with an A/E of 0.42. The pair's record together is 10/120 with an A/E of 1.24. She has been placed once from two runs on good to yielding and recent form of 70-030 gives her figures of RPR 69 and TS 54.
Tynamite KTB Fit 47/100
Tynamite is a modest 12-year-old who has been on the go a long time and arrives in poor form after two heavy defeats this year. He has placed three times from four runs at Limerick, though he has achieved little on good-to-yielding ground in two tries and is now dropping back to 7f having been well held over a mile last time. The yard’s 10% strike-rate here from 125 runs is in line with expectations. Trainer David Marnane and jockey Rebecca Parsons have a combined record of 0/16 with an A/E of 0.00. His recent form of 787-00 reflects his current level, with figures of RPR 64 and TS 37.
The rest of the field
ConcaireKTB Fit 45/100
Concaire is a modest performer who has shown just one spark in four starts, finishing sixth of 14 on handicap debut at Roscommon last month. He drops back to 7f today having been beaten over 7½f on his latest run, with the trip untried beyond a single unsuccessful attempt, and remains unproven on good to yielding ground. Trainer and jockey records at Limerick are modest.
UnfamiliarKTB Fit 45/100
Unfamiliar is a modest performer who has failed to win in seven starts and has shown very little spark on her last few outings. Stepping back up to 7f poses a fresh question having been well held over this trip on previous attempts, and she remains unproven on good to yielding. The trainer has a poor record at Limerick while the jockey operates at a solid 13% strike rate here.
Gobi StarKTB Fit 42/100
Gobi Star is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with six straight poor efforts. He steps up from 6f to a trip he has won at before though that was some time ago and he has shown little on his two runs on this sort of ground. The trainer has a modest 2% strike rate at Limerick from 48 runs while the jockey fares better with 12% from 284 rides.
Run Forrest RunKTB Fit 41/100
Run Forrest Run is a modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been largely out of form for some time. Only one win in the last 23 starts at this trip and his sole run here was a modest fifth. Trainer remains winless from seven attempts at Limerick while the jockey's modest strike rate at the track adds little confidence.
SosperiKTB Fit 41/100
Sosperi is a modest performer who showed little in five runs last season and now tries first-time headgear. He drops back from 1m4f to 7f where he has been beaten twice already and remains unproven on good to yielding. Trainer has had too few runners at Limerick to judge while the jockey operates at an 8% strike rate here from 84 rides.
ExceedingKTB Fit 41/100
Exceeding is a modest performer who has won once over this trip from 12 attempts but has been largely out of form this year with a best RPR of just 62. He has run twice at Limerick without placing and remains unproven on good to yielding ground. Trainer's modest 8% strike rate here from a big sample adds little encouragement while the 7lb claimer has too few rides at the track to assess.
Green IconKTB Fit 39/100
Green Icon is a modest performer who has struggled for form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has won over today's trip in the past but showed little on his only previous run here and was well beaten on his one start on similar ground. Trainer's modest record at Limerick adds little encouragement.
Harry LongabaughKTB Fit 38/100
Harry Longabaugh is a modest performer who has failed to build on his maiden form in two handicap starts this year. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having looked short of pace over 6f last time, which raises a fresh question at this trip, and remains unproven on good to yielding. The trainer has only one run at Limerick while the jockey's modest 5% strike rate from 65 rides here offers little encouragement.
Pick A WindowKTB Fit 33/100
Pick A Window is a limited performer who has shown very little in five maidens and now starts handicap life from a basement mark. He steps up to 7f for the first time having looked stretched at 6½f last time, which may bring about some improvement on pedigree, though he showed little on his one run on good to yielding. Trainer has a modest 5% strike-rate at Limerick from 37 runs while jockey remains winless from 24 rides here.
KTB verdict
The strong pace should suit those coming from off the speed, but the KTB Selection is Methgal. He is a front-runner who can get first run in a race that looks likely to collapse late, and while his record on this ground is limited the selection has the best recent win in the field and a positive trainer-jockey combination at the track. Zabriskie Point is the obvious danger as a hold-up type with placed form on the surface, while Dinamine's course placings and Queen Of Newark's draw give them each a chance in a race where several hold modest claims.
KTB Selection Methgal
This is the narrative read of the 7:50 Limerick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Limerick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Methgal and Harry Longabaugh are the main front-runners, with Queen Of Newark prominent.
How does the pace shape affect hold-up horses?
The strong pace that could collapse late favours hold-up horses such as Zabriskie Point and Exceeding.
Which runner has the best course record at Limerick?
Dinamine has finished placed on three of four visits to Limerick, while Tynamite has been placed three times from four runs here.
Who tries headgear for the first time?
Sosperi wears first-time headgear.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Limerick in this field?
Conor Cusack has a 100% strike rate at Limerick from one ride with an A/E of 3.25, while Sam Coen is 33% from six rides with an A/E of 3.26.
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