8:00 Killarney
This 15-runner 1m3f103y handicap at Killarney is a competitive affair featuring largely modest performers, many of whom are unproven over the trip or on the ground. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Young Churchill heading the figures on 56, followed closely by Tassarolo on 53 and God Of Thunder on 50. Several runners sport first-time headgear while the steadily-run, tactical nature of the race, as indicated by the pace shape, suggests that being handy could prove advantageous.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which prominent or handy runners may hold an edge. God Of Thunder is the one most likely to race on or close to the pace from his draw in stall seven, while most of the field, including the selection Young Churchill, tend to be held up and produce their efforts late. The key question is whether those racing prominently can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the lap of a closer in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Young Churchill KTB Selection56/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and finished only seventh of 14 last time.
- 2Tassarolo53/100Modest performer who won over this trip on his only attempt and has already scored at Killarney from just two starts here.
- 3God Of Thunder50/100Limited performer who has been out of form for a while with a string of poor efforts.
- 4Limestone Red48/100Limited sort who has shown little since a pair of placed efforts on AW early this year.
- 5Limbocall48/100Limbocall is a limited performer who has shown very little in five starts to date and was well beaten on both outings this year.
- 6Arch Enemy46/100Limited performer who has been in and out this year and showed only modest form when sixth last time.
- 7Deuteronomy44/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and arrives here with a string of poor efforts.
- 8Kevin The Great44/100Limited performer who has not made much impression this year and arrives here in modest form.
- 9Voice Of Northeast42/100Limited performer who has shown little in 11 starts and was well held in both recent runs.
- 10Vervain41/100Limited performer who has been out of form since winning over 1m6f on AW last year.
- 11Alto Sax40/100Limited performer who has shown bits of ability on his day but has been inconsistent this year.
- 12Highway Sixty One37/100Limited horse who has shown ordinary form at best this year and now tries first-time headgear.
- 13Monroe Dasher36/100Limited performer who has shown very little in five starts and was well beaten on his only previous visit to this track.
- 14Crypto Crash34/100Crypto Crash is a limited performer on the balance of his 18 runs and recent form figures of 0409-0.
- 15Fantasy Fara32/100Limited performer who has shown very little in six starts to date and makes no appeal from a wide draw.
The contenders
Young Churchill KTB Fit 56/100
Young Churchill is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and finished only seventh of 14 last time. He has run just once at Killarney, finishing fifth, while the trainer holds a solid 18 percent strike rate here from 40 runs. The 5yo drops back in trip today as a fresh question and remains unproven on the ground. From a wide draw in stall 14 he is likely to be held up and produce his effort late. Richard John O'Brien and W J Lee team up with a combined record of 12/97 and an A/E of 0.84.
Tassarolo KTB Fit 53/100
Tassarolo is a modest performer who won over this trip on his only attempt and has already scored at Killarney from just two starts here. His recent form is ordinary and the first-time headgear is now reached for after three modest efforts on the Flat this year. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at the track adds a further note of caution. Denis Gerard Hogan and Chris Hayes have a solid 17% strike rate when teaming up with an A/E of 1.67. The 5yo is unproven on the ground and will need to bounce back to his best.
God Of Thunder KTB Fit 50/100
God Of Thunder is a limited performer who has been out of form for a while with a string of poor efforts. He drops back in trip having been placed at this distance without winning and tries first-time headgear. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement on what is the horse's first run here. From stall seven the 7yo is likely to race prominently, on or close to the lead. Denis Gerard Hogan teams up with Daniel King, who has a 12% strike rate at Killarney and an A/E of 1.16.
Limestone Red KTB Fit 48/100
Limestone Red is a limited sort who has shown little since a pair of placed efforts on AW early this year. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up in trip for the first time and makes his debut at this track. The trainer has an 11 percent strike rate from 19 runs here. Tracey Collins and Gavin Ryan have a modest 3% strike rate when teaming up with an A/E of 0.25. The 6yo is unproven on the ground and will need to find improvement.
Limbocall KTB Fit 48/100
Limbocall is a limited performer who has shown very little in five starts to date and was well beaten on both outings this year. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Killarney from 38 runs. Stepping up markedly in trip asks a fresh question of a horse whose pedigree offers no obvious clues either way. M D O'Callaghan teams up with Colin Keane, who boasts an 18% strike rate at the track. The 4yo is drawn in stall three and is unproven on the ground.
The rest of the field
Arch EnemyKTB Fit 46/100
Arch Enemy is a limited performer who has been in and out this year and showed only modest form when sixth last time. He has run just once at Killarney and finished fifth while the trainer has a poor 0% strike-rate from 15 runs here. Steps up in trip today with the ground also an unknown so plenty of question marks.
DeuteronomyKTB Fit 44/100
Deuteronomy is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and arrives here with a string of poor efforts. Three runs at this track have produced no better than a midfield finish and the yard is still waiting for its first winner from 18 attempts at Killarney. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up in trip for the first time.
Kevin The GreatKTB Fit 44/100
Kevin The Great is a limited performer who has not made much impression this year and arrives here in modest form. First-time headgear is tried as he drops back in trip to a distance he has never raced over before. Trainer's modest record at the track adds little encouragement.
Voice Of NortheastKTB Fit 42/100
Voice Of Northeast is a limited performer who has shown little in 11 starts and was well held in both recent runs. First-time headgear is now tried as he drops back in trip to something new. Trainer has a 10% strike rate from 77 runs at Killarney.
VervainKTB Fit 41/100
Vervain is a limited performer who has been out of form since winning over 1m6f on AW last year. Dropping back in trip today having been well held over 1m4f on his latest start and first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer has an 8% strike rate from 87 runs at Killarney while the 4yo is unproven on this ground.
Alto SaxKTB Fit 40/100
Alto Sax is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability on his day but has been inconsistent this year. Only one previous run at Killarney resulted in a modest fourth and he is completely unproven on this ground while stepping up markedly in trip. First-time headgear is now applied.
Highway Sixty OneKTB Fit 37/100
Highway Sixty One is a limited horse who has shown ordinary form at best this year and now tries first-time headgear. Trainer has yet to land a winner from 27 runs at Killarney while the yard's jockey has a 0% strike rate from his rides here. Dropping back in trip poses a fresh question on ground he has never encountered.
Monroe DasherKTB Fit 36/100
Monroe Dasher is a limited performer who has shown very little in five starts and was well beaten on his only previous visit to this track. The step up to an untested 1m3½f poses a fresh question while the yard's modest 8% strike rate at Killarney from a large sample offers no particular encouragement.
Crypto CrashKTB Fit 34/100
Crypto Crash is a limited performer on the balance of his 18 runs and recent form figures of 0409-0. He steps up markedly in trip today having never been beyond 1m1f which asks a fresh question of him while he is unproven on this ground. The yard has a 7% strike rate from 46 runs at Killarney.
Fantasy FaraKTB Fit 32/100
Fantasy Fara is a limited performer who has shown very little in six starts to date and makes no appeal from a wide draw. First-time headgear is reached for but the trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Killarney offers little encouragement. Trip is a fresh question while the going remains unknown.
KTB verdict
Young Churchill tops the KTB Fit scores and is taken as the selection. A modest performer who has been largely out of form this year, he has the benefit of a solid trainer record at Killarney and drops back in trip as a fresh question. The selection can come out on top in a race where the majority of the field have plenty to prove. Tassarolo, with a previous win over the trip and at the track, is the most obvious danger, while God Of Thunder could benefit from his prominent run style if the steadily-run pace shape plays into his hands.
KTB Selection Young Churchill
This is the narrative read of the 8:00 Killarney. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Killarney racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won over this trip before?
Tassarolo won over this trip on his only attempt.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Killarney in the field?
Richard John O'Brien has an 18% strike rate at Killarney from 40 runs.
Which runner is most likely to race prominently?
God Of Thunder usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
How many runners are trying first-time headgear?
Eight runners are fitted with first-time headgear: Tassarolo, God Of Thunder, Limestone Red, Deuteronomy, Kevin The Great, Voice Of Northeast, Vervain, Alto Sax, Highway Sixty One and Fantasy Fara.
Which horse has the strongest jockey record at the track?
Colin Keane has an 18% strike rate at Killarney from 288 rides.
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