8:00 Sligo
This 1m5f103y Guinness Handicap at Sligo on good ground brings together an 11-runner field of largely unproven three-year-olds, most of whom are stepping up markedly in trip. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Grey Intentions, Chicago Moon and Private Larry all rated in the mid-50s, reflecting modest ability across the board and plenty of unknowns regarding stamina and the application of first-time headgear for several runners. With limited course form on record for the entire field, the race poses multiple questions about which horse can improve for the new distance on a track where certain trainers and jockeys hold clear records.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, driven by at least two habitual front-runners in Private Larry and Mare Crisium who tend to make the running or race prominently. This shape is likely to test those setting the fractions, with the possibility of the pace collapsing late in the straight. That scenario would play into the hands of the hold-up performers, several of whom are drawn towards the inside and will be looking to produce their effort from off the speed once the leaders tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Grey Intentions KTB Selection55/100Limited performer who has shown very little in five starts to date.
- 2Chicago Moon54/100Modest performer who showed some improvement when winning a 1m4f maiden at Gowran last time.
- 3Private Larry54/100Modest performer who has shown very little in seven starts this year before finally getting off the mark in a weak handicap at Down Royal last time.
- 4Mare Crisium52/100Modest performer who has shown little in five starts to date and now steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question.
- 5Sonny Corleone49/100Sonny Corleone is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts, finishing no better than fourth on his last two outings.
- 6Ellens Bay48/100Limited sort who has shown very little in three starts to date.
- 7Cascade Canyon45/100Modest performer who has failed to build on a promising debut and now tries a new trip with first-time headgear.
- 8Queen Of Astolat43/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with three straight placed efforts.
- 9Curious Jane41/100Limited filly who has shown very little in five starts to date.
- 10Elzaam Express38/100Limited sort who has shown very little in three starts to date.
- 11Canon Law37/100Canon Law is a limited performer on his eight starts to date and has shown only modest form at best this year.
The contenders
Grey Intentions KTB Fit 55/100
Grey Intentions is a limited performer who has shown very little in five starts to date. The step up in trip is an unknown and first-time headgear is now applied in hope of better. The trainer boasts a 27% strike rate at Sligo with an A/E of 2.05 from 15 runs, which stands out positively, although the jockey operates at a 10% strike rate from 21 rides here. With a KTB Fit of 55 this three-year-old is ranked top of the ratings. Usually held up and producing its effort late, Grey Intentions could be suited if the strong pace collapses. The selection represents a yard that knows its way around this venue.
Chicago Moon KTB Fit 54/100
Chicago Moon is a modest performer who showed some improvement when winning a 1m4f maiden at Gowran last time. He steps up in trip again today with first-time headgear applied. The yard posts a 12% strike-rate at Sligo from 34 runs which is respectable, while the jockey has a solid 15% record here from 177 rides. With a KTB Fit of 54 this three-year-old holds a strong recent form line of 93751. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he is well placed to benefit if the anticipated strong pace takes its toll on the leaders. He holds a 1-2 record on good ground that adds further encouragement.
Private Larry KTB Fit 54/100
Private Larry is a modest performer who has shown very little in seven starts this year before finally getting off the mark in a weak handicap at Down Royal last time. He drops back from 2m1f to a trip he has never tried, which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has no recorded runners at Sligo and the jockey operates at a 7% strike rate from 27 rides here. Rated 54 on KTB Fit, this front-runner tends to make the running or race on the pace. With a 1-2 record on good ground he could set a strong gallop that shapes the race, though whether he sees out the distance remains to be seen.
Mare Crisium KTB Fit 52/100
Mare Crisium is a modest performer who has shown little in five starts to date and now steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question. The yard's poor record at Sligo offers no encouragement while the apprentice takes the ride with no previous course experience. Holding a KTB Fit of 52, this three-year-old has a recent form string of 68594. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, she could be one of those helping to force the strong tempo. Her sole run on good ground brought no win or place, adding to the doubts surrounding her prospects.
Sonny Corleone KTB Fit 49/100
Sonny Corleone is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts, finishing no better than fourth on his last two outings. He steps up markedly in trip today with first-time headgear, which asks a fresh question of him on ground that remains unknown given the small sample. Gordon Elliott has a 16% strike rate from 276 runs at Sligo while Chris Hayes posts an 11% strike rate from 202 rides here. With a KTB Fit of 49 this hold-up type will be looking to come from off the pace if the race develops as expected. The combination of yard and jockey at this venue offers some hope despite his limitations.
The rest of the field
Ellens BayKTB Fit 48/100
Ellens Bay is a limited sort who has shown very little in three starts to date. The step up to 1m5½f today asks a fresh question and could bring some improvement, though the bare form offers little encouragement. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate here from 44 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first course winner from 21 rides.
Cascade CanyonKTB Fit 45/100
Cascade Canyon is a modest performer who has failed to build on a promising debut and now tries a new trip with first-time headgear. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Sligo from limited runners while the jockey posts a 15% strike rate here from 62 rides. Typically settling in midfield, this one remains a watching brief given the small overall sample and lack of recent spark.
Queen Of AstolatKTB Fit 43/100
Queen Of Astolat is a modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with three straight placed efforts. She drops back in trip today having last run over further and that asks a fresh question of her. The trainer records a 7% strike rate from 161 runs at Sligo while the jockey is operating at 11% from 47 rides here.
Curious JaneKTB Fit 41/100
Curious Jane is a limited filly who has shown very little in five starts to date. First-time headgear is now fitted as she steps up markedly in trip, which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has a solid record at Sligo but the claiming jockey is still seeking a first win here.
Elzaam ExpressKTB Fit 38/100
Elzaam Express is a limited sort who has shown very little in three starts to date. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up markedly in trip, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Sligo but this one has a lot to prove.
Canon LawKTB Fit 37/100
Canon Law is a limited performer on his eight starts to date and has shown only modest form at best this year. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him while his record on good ground is unconvincing from just two runs. The yard has a solid 12 percent strike rate at Sligo from 17 runs though the jockey is operating at a more modest 8 percent from 171 rides here.
KTB verdict
The race looks set to be run at a strong gallop that could stretch the front-runners and create opportunities for those racing off the pace. Grey Intentions is the KTB Selection. While a limited performer with little to show from five starts, the trainer's 27% strike rate at Sligo from 15 runs provides a significant positive and the first-time headgear may help unlock improvement over this new trip. His hold-up style aligns well with the expected pace shape. Main dangers include Chicago Moon, who arrives on the back of a Gowran maiden success and holds a respectable yard record at the venue, and Private Larry, who got off the mark last time but faces a drop in trip and the unknown of first-time headgear.
KTB Selection Grey Intentions
This is the narrative read of the 8:00 Sligo. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Sligo racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Private Larry and Mare Crisium both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many runners are making their first attempt at this distance or further?
The majority of the field, including Grey Intentions, Chicago Moon, Mare Crisium, Sonny Corleone, Ellens Bay, Cascade Canyon, Curious Jane, Elzaam Express and Canon Law, are stepping up markedly in trip.
Which trainer has the strongest record at Sligo in this race?
Eddie & Patrick Harty with a 27% strike rate at Sligo and an A/E of 2.05 from 15 runs.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Grey Intentions, Chicago Moon, Private Larry, Sonny Corleone, Cascade Canyon, Curious Jane and Elzaam Express are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Which jockey has the most experience at Sligo among the riders in this field?
W J Lee with 177 rides at the track and a 15% strike rate.
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