8:09 Ballinrobe
The 8:09 at Ballinrobe is a 1m7f119y Jennings Meats Flat Race on good ground featuring a field of 13 largely unexposed or modest performers. With so many runners arriving either unraced or with minimal racecourse exposure the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, led by Ealu Tapa on 58 and Srah on 57. Trainer and jockey course statistics carry extra weight in a race short on hard form, while the lack of proven stamina and ground preferences for several runners adds layers of uncertainty.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is expected to be on the steady side with few confirmed front-runners in the line-up. Most principals and field runners are likely to settle in mid-division or towards the rear early, meaning the race could develop into a test of positioning and a late kick. The key question is whether any horse can produce an improved effort on this small sample of form, or whether one of the debutants can translate pedigree promise into a winning performance on debut.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ealu Tapa KTB Selection58/100Lightly raced 5-year-old with just one run on the board and that was poor enough.
- 2Srah57/100Srah is a newcomer with no prior runs so the form picture is blank.
- 3Josh's Jury50/100Josh's Jury made a low-key start when eighth of 14 on debut over this trip at Downpatrick.
- 4Moundofthehostages50/100Moundofthehostages has been well beaten on both starts so far and remains very lightly raced with only two runs in the last year.
- 5Merci Vieil Ami47/100Merci Vieil Ami is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
- 6Ballybollen47/100Ballybollen is a newcomer from the Henry De Bromhead yard which has a 12% strike rate from 136 runs at Ballinrobe.
- 7Hometomayo44/100Hometomayo has shown little so far with a recent fourth at this trip the only finish from four starts.
- 8Saviour Blu43/100Saviour Blu has shown very little in two starts so far with a recent unseated adding to the sketchy profile.
- 9Millers Point42/100Millers Point makes his debut for a trainer with a modest 6% strike-rate at Ballinrobe from 62 runs.
- 10Tommy's Ticket40/100Tommy's Ticket showed little on his sole start when finishing sixth and has only that one run in the last year.
- 11Pamelaisbrass39/100Pamelaisbrass has shown very little in two starts to date and arrives with a modest recent form line of 6-0.
- 12Long Story39/100Long Story has shown little in two runs this year both over today's trip, finishing seventh on each occasion.
- 13Colga Boys38/100Colga Boys is a debutant with no racecourse experience to go on.
The contenders
Ealu Tapa KTB Fit 58/100
Ealu Tapa is the KTB Selection. This lightly raced 5-year-old has only one run on the board and that was poor enough. Peter Fahey has a 13% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 112 runs while the claiming jockey Mr A P Ryan is operating at a useful 19% from his 16 rides at the track. Dropping back in trip is a fresh question and the going remains unknown on this small sample. The combination of yard and rider course stats nevertheless gives him the strongest profile in a race light on established form.
Srah KTB Fit 57/100
Srah is a newcomer with no prior runs so the form picture is blank. John Patrick Ryan has a solid 11% strike rate from 332 runs at Ballinrobe while the 7 lb claiming jockey Mr D McGill has struck at a 22% rate from just nine rides here. By Rajj, who has a 7% overall win rate from 476 runners, the pedigree and sales background will carry most weight on debut. The yard and rider combination at this venue nevertheless commands respect in an open-looking bumper.
Josh's Jury KTB Fit 50/100
Josh's Jury made a low-key start when eighth of 14 on debut over this trip at Downpatrick. The small sample makes it impossible to gauge whether the trip, ground or track will suit. Steve Jones has a 0% strike rate at Ballinrobe from one run while Mr O McGill has a 33% strike rate from three rides at the venue. With so little to go on the form has to be treated with real caution and he needs to improve markedly from that initial effort.
Moundofthehostages KTB Fit 50/100
Moundofthehostages has been well beaten on both starts so far and remains very lightly raced with only two runs in the last year. The drop back in trip to an untried 1m7½f poses a fresh question. Patrick Magee has a 12% strike rate from 17 runs at Ballinrobe while jockey Mr Finn Tegetmeier has had too few rides here to judge. He has 1 run on good ground without placing and overall this looks a difficult ask on what he has shown to date.
Merci Vieil Ami KTB Fit 47/100
Merci Vieil Ami is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. By Diamond Boy, who has a 12% overall win rate from 2185 runners, the pedigree and sales background offer the only clues and the low data confidence means any conclusions are tentative at best. Denis Ahern has no recorded runs at Ballinrobe while Mr Finian Maguire’s 3% strike rate from 39 rides here is modest. He will need to be above average to make an impact on his first start.
The rest of the field
BallybollenKTB Fit 47/100
Ballybollen is a newcomer from the Henry De Bromhead yard which has a 12% strike rate from 136 runs at Ballinrobe. Mr J L Gleeson has a 14% strike rate from 14 rides at the track. By Nathaniel, who has a 12% overall win rate from 7108 runners, assessment leans on pedigree and sales background with no racecourse form available.
HometomayoKTB Fit 44/100
Hometomayo has shown little so far with a recent fourth at this trip the only finish from four starts. The horse pulled up on its sole visit to Ballinrobe and drops back in trip having been well held over further last time. Charles Reilly is operating at a 0% strike rate from nine runs at the track while the jockey has no recorded rides here. He has 1 run on good without placing.
Saviour BluKTB Fit 43/100
Saviour Blu has shown very little in two starts so far with a recent unseated adding to the sketchy profile. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 187 runs suggests this is not a track where they tend to find winners. Mr J C Barry has a solid 10% strike rate here from 52 rides but that is the main positive in an otherwise thin case. He has 1 run on good without placing.
Millers PointKTB Fit 42/100
Millers Point makes his debut for a trainer with a modest 6% strike-rate at Ballinrobe from 62 runs. Mr H C Swan is similarly limited here with an 8% strike-rate from 25 rides. By Ol' Man River, who has an 8% overall win rate from 484 runners, with no racecourse form and only low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on his sales and pedigree background.
Tommy's TicketKTB Fit 40/100
Tommy's Ticket showed little on his sole start when finishing sixth and has only that one run in the last year. The yard has a 0% strike rate from seven runs at Ballinrobe while the jockey is also 0% from nine rides here. First-time headgear is reached for on this lightly-raced maiden. He is unproven on good ground.
PamelaisbrassKTB Fit 39/100
Pamelaisbrass has shown very little in two starts to date and arrives with a modest recent form line of 6-0. John G Carr posts a 4% strike rate from 108 runs at Ballinrobe while the 7lb claimer has had too few rides here to judge. Dropping back in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with only two career runs behind it. He has 1 run on good without placing.
Long StoryKTB Fit 39/100
Long Story has shown little in two runs this year both over today's trip, finishing seventh on each occasion. The horse was also seventh on its only previous visit to Ballinrobe. John Neilan has a 0% strike rate from 34 runs at this track while the limited data on both horse and jockey at the course makes any firm conclusions risky. He has 1 run on good without placing.
Colga BoysKTB Fit 38/100
Colga Boys is a debutant with no racecourse experience to go on. Paul John Gilligan's modest 4% strike rate from 110 runs at Ballinrobe offers little encouragement and the 7 lb claimer has had too few rides here to form any reliable view. By Feel Like Dancing, who has a 7% overall win rate from 213 runners, pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment but with low data confidence this is guesswork at best.
KTB verdict
Ealu Tapa is the KTB Selection. His yard and jockey both hold above-average course records at Ballinrobe and in a race where so many runners bring minimal or no form that combination stands out. The drop in trip and unknown ground are the main concerns but he still holds the call on the supplied numbers. Main dangers are the debutant Srah, who benefits from a strong yard-jockey course axis, and Josh's Jury if he can build on his initial effort at Downpatrick.
KTB Selection Ealu Tapa
This is the narrative read of the 8:09 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course-trainer and jockey combination at Ballinrobe?
Ealu Tapa, with Peter Fahey on 13% from 112 runs and Mr A P Ryan on 19% from 16 rides.
How many runners in the field have previous racecourse form?
Eight runners have previous racecourse form while five are debutants.
Which horse is the only one to have raced at Ballinrobe before?
Hometomayo pulled up on his sole visit while Long Story finished seventh on his only previous visit.
Which principals are unproven on good ground?
Ealu Tapa, Josh's Jury and Tommy's Ticket are unproven on good ground.
What is the best recent finishing position among horses with form?
Hometomayo's recent fourth at this trip is the best finishing position shown.
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