8:13 Leopardstown
This 1m7f Q.R. race at Leopardstown on good to firm ground brings together a compact field of six where class and stamina will both be tested. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Delta and Murat separated by just a single point, while Sirius and Friary Road sit on identical 51 ratings. Official figures and recent form suggest a race that could be decided by which horse handles the step up in trip or the surface best, and the trainer-jockey combinations add further layers with several strong course records on show.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed front-runners declared the pace shape looks likely to be on the steady side, though several runners have shown the ability to race prominently or track the pace. Delta from draw six and Murat from stall two could both take a hand early, while Sirius from the inside gate may be dropped in. The key question is whether the race will develop into a test of stamina at this trip, particularly for those stepping up in distance for the first time.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Delta KTB Selection60/100Useful performer who showed strong form when second here over further last season.
- 2Murat59/100Murat won on his only previous start here and that sets a solid standard.
- 3Sirius51/100Useful performer who showed smart form when winning at this level last year before a lengthy absence.
- 4Friary Road51/100Modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability in recent starts.
- 5The Mediator45/100The Mediator is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning for some time, showing steady placed form at shorter trips.
- 6Catalani40/100Catalani has had just four career runs in the last year and remains lightly raced overall.
The contenders
Delta KTB Fit 60/100
Delta is a useful performer who showed strong form when second here over further last season. He has not fired in two starts this year and his sole run on good to firm ground brought no reward. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien and Mr P W Mullins combination carries plenty of weight, with the trainer recording a 12 percent strike rate at Leopardstown from over a thousand runs and the jockey posting a strong 31 percent strike rate from 194 rides at the track. A 7/18 record when teaming up underlines the positive angle, while the 4-year-old's placed effort on his only previous visit to Leopardstown adds to the appeal from draw six. Recent form figures of 315-40 reflect ability that remains well above average for this level.
Murat KTB Fit 59/100
Murat won on his only previous start here and that sets a solid standard. He steps up in trip today having last run over a mile and a half, which asks a fresh question of him. The Peter Lawlor yard holds a strong 15 percent strike rate at Leopardstown from a small sample while the jockey Mr H C Swan operates at 12 percent from 34 rides at the track. Course form of one win from one run is a major plus, and although the 7-year-old is unproven on good to firm he brings a recent effort that keeps him firmly in the mix. Draw two could prove handy if the pace is not strong.
Sirius KTB Fit 51/100
Sirius is a useful performer who showed smart form when winning at this level last year before a lengthy absence. He steps up in trip today having not raced beyond 1m4f and is unproven on good to firm ground. W P Mullins has a solid 17 percent strike rate at Leopardstown from over 2,000 runs, though the jockey Mr David Dunsdon has only two rides here so far and a 0 percent strike rate from that small sample. The 4/21 record when this trainer and jockey combine still offers encouragement, and the recent form figures of 14/01- highlight the level he showed prior to his break. Racing from draw one he could be ideally placed to track the early pace.
Friary Road KTB Fit 51/100
Friary Road is a modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability in recent starts. He has run three times at Leopardstown without placing and drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at this distance. T M Walsh has a solid 13 percent strike rate at the track from 344 runs, while the 7lb claimer Mr L P Shanahan boasts a strong 17 percent strike rate from just six rides here and the pair combine at a 2/5 level. Recent form figures of 28339- paint a picture of a horse who stays competitive at a modest level without threatening to land a big one. The 6-year-old remains unproven on good to firm.
The rest of the field
The MediatorKTB Fit 45/100
The Mediator is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning for some time, showing steady placed form at shorter trips. He now steps up to 1m7f for the first time while making his debut at Leopardstown and trying good to firm ground, both unknowns, with first-time headgear also added.
CatalaniKTB Fit 40/100
Catalani has had just four career runs in the last year and remains lightly raced overall. The drop back from 2m7f to an untried 1m7f poses a fresh question while both trainer and jockey have only four visits apiece to Leopardstown so their local form is impossible to read with confidence. With so little data available the whole profile has to be treated with real caution.
KTB verdict
Delta is the KTB Selection and brings the strongest blend of proven ability and course experience to the table. His second at Leopardstown last season over further remains the best piece of form on display, and the booking of Mr P W Mullins combined with Joseph Patrick O'Brien's respectable local record gives every reason to expect a bold showing. Murat sets a solid standard with his course win and cannot be dismissed, while Sirius has the class if he can translate last year's smart form to this longer trip and different surface. Friary Road adds depth but looks modest in comparison, and the race could hinge on which of the top two handles the conditions and distance best.
KTB Selection Delta
This is the narrative read of the 8:13 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course form at Leopardstown?
Murat won on his only previous start here.
How many times has Delta run at Leopardstown and what is his record?
Delta has run once at Leopardstown and finished second.
Who holds the strongest trainer-jockey strike rate at the track in this race?
The Joseph Patrick O'Brien and Mr P W Mullins combination has a 7/18 (39%) record with an A/E of 1.15.
Which runners are stepping up in trip for the first time?
Murat, Sirius and The Mediator are all stepping up in trip.
What headgear is The Mediator wearing for the first time?
First-time headgear.
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