8:20 Windsor
This Class 6 handicap over 1m2f at Windsor on good to firm ground brings together an evenly-matched field of 11 modest performers. KTB's Fit Scores are tightly bunched, with Grey Fox heading the numbers on 62, followed by Fast Steps and Sansanetti both on 56. Several runners are dropping in class while first-time headgear is a recurring theme across the card.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a truly-run affair with several prominent runners likely to contest the early fractions from low draws. Super Hit and Fast Steps are expected to be forward, while Grey Fox and Sansanetti can sit just off the pace. The key question is whether the headgear applied to so many will sharpen them sufficiently to produce improved efforts in what looks an open race.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Grey Fox KTB Selection62/100Modest performer with a solid course record here including four wins from 13 starts.
- 2Fast Steps56/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of three consecutive placed efforts and a course win from 13 starts here.
- 3Sansanetti56/100Sansanetti is a limited horse who has won four times from nine starts at this trip including a recent success.
- 4Saliko54/100Saliko is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 5Super Hit53/100Super Hit is a modest performer who has been in and out this year but showed his best when winning a similar race at Goodwood last month.
- 6Norflondonforever52/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs back from a break.
- 7Thiscouldbefun51/100Thiscouldbefun is a modest performer who has shown some consistency without winning for a while.
- 8Guinness Lad50/100Guinness Lad is a limited performer who has shown enough at this level to be competitive, winning once and placing three times from seven starts at today's trip…
- 9Danehill Star49/100Modest performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 214332 and has won five times over today's trip.
- 10Pay Attention43/100Limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and looks up against it from stall 10.
- 11My O My39/100Limited horse who has shown very little in ten starts this year and makes no appeal on recent form.
The contenders
Grey Fox KTB Fit 62/100
Grey Fox is a modest performer with a solid course record here including four wins from 13 starts. He drops back to his winning trip today having been out over further last time and acts on good to firm ground with four successes from 16 runs. First-time headgear is an unknown but the yard has a good 14% strike rate at Windsor with an A/E of 1.38 from 72 runs. The trainer and jockey combination shows an 8/36 record with a positive A/E of 1.34 and LSP of +£9.76. Recent form of 549-66 is modest yet his course wins give him a clear edge at this venue. From draw 5 he should be able to find a decent position early.
Fast Steps KTB Fit 56/100
Fast Steps is a modest performer with a solid recent record of three consecutive placed efforts and a course win from 13 starts here. He has won at today's trip and on this ground though both are far from his best distances. First-time headgear is the unknown and the yard's modest strike rate at Windsor continues with a 10% record and A/E of 0.86 from 799 runs. The trainer and jockey partnership is productive with 55/313 wins, an A/E of 1.00 and LSP of +£28.02. Recent form reads 47-332 and he has shown enough to be competitive at this level. Drawn in 2 he is likely to be prominent under Oisin Murphy.
Sansanetti KTB Fit 56/100
Sansanetti is a limited horse who has won four times from nine starts at this trip including a recent success. He acts on good to firm ground with one win and a placing from just two runs on it. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 441 runs at Windsor while this is his first run here. Recent form of 11-664 shows a win earlier this year before two modest efforts. From draw 3 he can be handy in a race where pace is likely to be contested. The trainer and jockey record stands at 19/109 with an A/E of 1.17 and LSP of +£15.64.
Saliko KTB Fit 54/100
Saliko is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has run just once at Windsor when finishing fourth and holds a solid 14% strike-rate through the yard here from 21 runs with an A/E of 1.25. He has won twice at this trip but is unproven on good to firm ground and now tries headgear for the first time. Recent form reads -79406 and he drops in class from a middle draw of 4. The yard's record at the track offers some encouragement even if his own form this season has been poor.
Super Hit KTB Fit 53/100
Super Hit is a modest performer who has been in and out this year but showed his best when winning a similar race at Goodwood last month. He has won on good to firm and at today's trip, though his first run at Windsor adds a small unknown. First-time headgear is now tried by a yard with a solid 13% strike rate here and an A/E of 0.84 from 38 runs. Recent form of 267413 underlines that Goodwood success and he is likely to go forward from draw 1. The trainer and jockey combination has a 3/20 record with an A/E of 0.62.
The rest of the field
NorflondonforeverKTB Fit 52/100
Norflondonforever is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs back from a break. He steps up to 1m2f today having failed to land a blow at the trip on his previous two attempts while the trainer has only four runs at Windsor which is too small a sample to judge.
ThiscouldbefunKTB Fit 51/100
Thiscouldbefun is a modest performer who has shown some consistency without winning for a while. He has placed once from two runs at Windsor and holds a respectable record on good to firm ground with one win and three places from six starts. Stepping up to this trip for the first time asks a fresh question while first-time headgear adds another unknown.
Guinness LadKTB Fit 50/100
Guinness Lad is a limited performer who has shown enough at this level to be competitive, winning once and placing three times from seven starts at today's trip. He has course experience with a win from four runs here and goes well on good to firm, recording one win and four places from five starts. The first-time headgear is an unknown and he now drops back in trip from 1m3½f.
Danehill StarKTB Fit 49/100
Danehill Star is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 214332 and has won five times over today's trip. Placed three times from six starts on good to firm but was only sixth on his one visit to Windsor. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard's modest 8% strike rate here from 641 runs offers no particular encouragement.
Pay AttentionKTB Fit 43/100
Pay Attention is a limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and looks up against it from stall 10. Has placed without winning at both today’s trip and on good to firm ground, though the single run here produced a respectable third. First-time headgear is now tried and the yard’s small Windsor sample gives little guidance.
My O MyKTB Fit 39/100
My O My is a limited horse who has shown very little in ten starts this year and makes no appeal on recent form. First-time headgear is tried as he drops back in trip having failed to trouble the judge in two runs at this distance. The trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Windsor adds no encouragement.
KTB verdict
Grey Fox is the KTB Selection. His solid course record of four wins from 13 starts at Windsor stands out in a race where several others bring limited recent form or unknowns in the shape of first-time headgear. The drop back to his winning trip and proven ability on good to firm ground further strengthen the case. Main dangers include Fast Steps with his recent placed efforts, Sansanetti who has won at the trip, and Super Hit who showed his best at Goodwood last month.
KTB Selection Grey Fox
This is the narrative read of the 8:20 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Windsor?
Grey Fox has four wins from 13 starts at the track.
How many runners are trying first-time headgear?
Seven runners are fitted with first-time headgear: Grey Fox, Fast Steps, Saliko, Super Hit, Thiscouldbefun, Guinness Lad and Danehill Star, plus Pay Attention and My O My.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Windsor among the principals?
Emma Lavelle has a 14% strike rate at Windsor with an A/E of 1.38 from 72 runs.
Which horse is dropping back to a trip at which it has won four times?
Sansanetti has won four times from nine starts at this trip.
What is the recent form of the KTB Selection?
Grey Fox has recent form figures of 549-66.
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