8:30 Ballinrobe
The Tim Kelly Group Handicap Hurdle at Ballinrobe over 2m6f113y on good ground brings together a field of 19, with several having previous experience at the track. KTB's Fit ratings identify Tannery Park as the top horse on figures, though the race features a number of useful performers with course form and varying degrees of recent spark. The overall numbers point to a competitive heat where course records, trip suitability and trainer form at the venue will play significant roles.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is expected to be run at a solid gallop from early on. It's Time Again and Mini Getaway are likely to contest the lead or race prominently, which could set the race up for those coming from off the pace. This strong pace could cause the race to collapse late, posing the key question of which hold-up performers can time their effort best to pick up the pieces in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tannery Park KTB Selection68/100Tannery Park is a useful performer who has already won at this track and at today's trip.
- 2It's Time Again63/100Useful performer who has won three times from nine starts at Ballinrobe and also has a solid record on good ground with two wins from eleven runs.
- 3Joshua Chamberlain59/100Useful performer who has shown a mix of respectable efforts and lesser ones, including a pair of placed finishes at this track without winning.
- 4Pilgrims Walk56/100Useful performer who showed clear improvement when a close second over 3m here last month after two poor runs.
- 5Nothing Hectic54/100Nothing Hectic is a useful performer who won over this trip on his only attempt and has already scored at Ballinrobe.
- 6The Little Yank53/100Useful performer who has shown a bit of spark with two placed efforts this season after a long spell in the doldrums.
- 7Cornaroya Rocco52/100Useful performer on the balance of his ratings and placed form.
- 8Ranger Billy50/100Ranger Billy is a fair sort who has placed on both previous visits to Ballinrobe and showed a bit more spark when third last time out.
- 9Mini Getaway49/100Mini Getaway is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing third on his most recent visit here.
- 10Political Stance47/100Useful performer who showed his best effort when runner-up over 2m4½f at this track last season.
- 11Poetic Focus46/100Fair performer who has been struggling for form lately with a string of modest efforts.
- 12Urbs Intacta Manet45/100Fair performer who has failed to complete in three of six starts and arrives on the back of a poor effort at three miles.
- 13Everystep Oftheway44/100Fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately.
- 14La Tene44/100Modest performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing a respectable third here on his only visit.
- 15Chanceitlucky40/100Fair performer who showed his best effort when fourth at this track over 2m on his latest start.
- 16Moonshine Girl38/100Moonshine Girl is a fair mare who has been competitive without winning on her last two starts and has placed three times from 12 runs on good ground.
- 17Lost Features38/100Modest performer who has shown very little in nine starts and was pulled up on his penultimate outing.
- 18Tawny Lea38/100Tawny Lea has shown very little in four starts to date and remains a fair horse at best on the balance of her form.
- 19Queen Kulina35/100Fair mare who has shown enough in recent handicap chases to remain of interest at this level.
The contenders
Tannery Park KTB Fit 68/100
Tannery Park is a useful performer who has already won at this track and at today's trip. He has a solid course record here and the yard's 28% strike-rate at Ballinrobe adds some encouragement. The jockey's modest 6% record at the track is a clear negative. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace that is anticipated. With a KTB Fit of 68 he tops the ratings in a race where his Ballinrobe success and trip effectiveness stand out.
It's Time Again KTB Fit 63/100
It's Time Again is a useful performer who has won three times from nine starts at Ballinrobe and also has a solid record on good ground with two wins from eleven runs. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance once from five attempts, which looks a fair ask on the balance of his form. First-time headgear is now fitted while the yard's strong 20% strike rate here is offset by the jockey's modest 2% record from 48 rides at the track. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is one of those likely to set a strong gallop that could suit hold-up types later on. Rated with a KTB Fit of 63 he remains a major player at this venue.
Joshua Chamberlain KTB Fit 59/100
Joshua Chamberlain is a useful performer who has shown a mix of respectable efforts and lesser ones, including a pair of placed finishes at this track without winning. He acts on good ground and steps up in trip today for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has a solid 9% strike rate from 109 runs at Ballinrobe. Typically settling in midfield, he may benefit if the strong pace takes its toll on those up front. His KTB Fit of 59 places him firmly among the principals in a race where his course placed form offers some hope.
Pilgrims Walk KTB Fit 56/100
Pilgrims Walk is a useful performer who showed clear improvement when a close second over 3m here last month after two poor runs. Drops back in trip today which poses a fresh question while first-time headgear is also an unknown. Trainer has a solid 9% strike rate from 316 runs at Ballinrobe though the claiming jockey has only had two rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is well suited to the expected strong pace that could collapse late. With a KTB Fit of 56 he enters calculations despite the trip and headgear uncertainties.
Nothing Hectic KTB Fit 54/100
Nothing Hectic is a useful performer who won over this trip on his only attempt and has already scored at Ballinrobe. He has shown some consistency on good ground with a win and two places from five runs, though his recent form has been patchy with two pulled-ups and poor efforts in his last two starts. The trainer holds a solid record here while the jockey's modest strike-rate at the track is worth noting. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he should relish the strong pace on offer. His KTB Fit of 54 keeps him in the mix on his best form.
The rest of the field
The Little YankKTB Fit 53/100
The Little Yank is a useful performer who has shown a bit of spark with two placed efforts this season after a long spell in the doldrums. Only one previous run at Ballinrobe resulted in a fair fourth and the drop back from 3m1f looks a positive given his placed record at this trip. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate here from a big sample while the 7lb claimer is hard to assess with just a single ride at the track.
Cornaroya RoccoKTB Fit 52/100
Cornaroya Rocco is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and placed form. He showed a bit when second at this trip range last time but pulled up on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe and the trainer's 1% strike rate from 140 runs here is poor. The jockey's 11% record at the track offers some compensation while the longer trip is an unknown.
Ranger BillyKTB Fit 50/100
Ranger Billy is a fair sort who has placed on both previous visits to Ballinrobe and showed a bit more spark when third last time out. He steps up in trip today having failed to win in two previous tries at this distance, while the first-time headgear is an unknown on a horse whose recent form has been patchy. The trainer’s modest 4% strike-rate here and the jockey’s 7% record at the track add further caution.
Mini GetawayKTB Fit 49/100
Mini Getaway is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing third on his most recent visit here. He drops back in trip today having been placed both starts at this distance, and he has also handled good ground in the past. The trainer holds a 0% strike rate from 14 runs at Ballinrobe while the jockey has a solid 13% strike rate from 32 rides at the venue.
Political StanceKTB Fit 47/100
Political Stance is a useful performer who showed his best effort when runner-up over 2m4½f at this track last season. The step up in trip is an unknown at this stage. Trainer has a 9% strike rate here from 100 runs while jockey posts a stronger 16% from 43 rides.
Poetic FocusKTB Fit 46/100
Poetic Focus is a fair performer who has been struggling for form lately with a string of modest efforts. Steps up in trip today having placed once at this distance without winning, while his record on good ground shows no wins or places from six runs. Trainer has a 10% strike rate here from 69 runs while the jockey is operating at 19% from 59 rides.
Urbs Intacta ManetKTB Fit 45/100
Urbs Intacta Manet is a fair performer who has failed to complete in three of six starts and arrives on the back of a poor effort at three miles. Drops back in trip today for the first time, which asks a fresh question, while the first-time headgear is another unknown. Trainer has a 0% strike rate from seven runs at Ballinrobe but the jockey has a solid 14% record from 72 rides here.
Everystep OfthewayKTB Fit 44/100
Everystep Oftheway is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately. Ballinrobe form is modest with one run producing an eighth and the trainer's 4% strike rate from 69 runs here offers little encouragement. Drops back in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question while his placed effort on good ground remains his best recent effort.
La TeneKTB Fit 44/100
La Tene is a modest performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing a respectable third here on his only visit. He has placed on good ground and steps up in trip today having already tried this sort of distance twice without success. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate from a big sample at Ballinrobe while the jockey is still seeking his first winner from seven rides here.
ChanceitluckyKTB Fit 40/100
Chanceitlucky is a fair performer who showed his best effort when fourth at this track over 2m on his latest start. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him, while the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Ballinrobe offers little encouragement. Jockey has a solid 9% record here from 119 rides.
Moonshine GirlKTB Fit 38/100
Moonshine Girl is a fair mare who has been competitive without winning on her last two starts and has placed three times from 12 runs on good ground. She has been placed twice from four runs at Ballinrobe but has struggled on her other visits here, while dropping back from 3m to a trip at which she is 0-4 adds a fresh question. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard's modest 4% strike rate at the track is a negative.
Lost FeaturesKTB Fit 38/100
Lost Features is a modest performer who has shown very little in nine starts and was pulled up on his penultimate outing. He ran respectably when fifth over course and distance on good ground last time but that remains his only piece of form of note. The yard has a poor record at Ballinrobe and this looks another tough assignment.
Tawny LeaKTB Fit 38/100
Tawny Lea has shown very little in four starts to date and remains a fair horse at best on the balance of her form. The yard has a 0% strike-rate from 14 runs at Ballinrobe while the jockey is operating at 4% from 26 rides here. Stepping up markedly in trip is an unknown that could suit or expose her further.
Queen KulinaKTB Fit 35/100
Queen Kulina is a fair mare who has shown enough in recent handicap chases to remain of interest at this level. Dropping back from 3m looks a reasonable move though she has failed to win in two previous tries at this trip and her record on good ground is placed but winless. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates here.
KTB verdict
Tannery Park stands out as the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer with a prior win at the track and over today's trip, allied to a solid course record and the yard's strong 28% strike rate at Ballinrobe. His hold-up run-style aligns perfectly with the strong pace that is likely to unfold, potentially allowing him to come home strongly if the leaders fold. The main dangers are It's Time Again, who boasts three course wins and first-time headgear, and Pilgrims Walk, who showed marked improvement when second over further here last month and will also relish the late pace.
KTB Selection Tannery Park
This is the narrative read of the 8:30 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are most likely to set the strong pace?
It's Time Again and Mini Getaway, both of whom tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many previous wins does It's Time Again have at Ballinrobe?
Three wins from nine starts at Ballinrobe.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Ballinrobe for Tannery Park's stable?
28% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 1.65 from 18 runs.
Which principal runners are suited by the expected strong pace due to their hold-up style?
Tannery Park, Pilgrims Walk and Nothing Hectic are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
What recent form has Pilgrims Walk shown at this track?
A close second over 3m here last month after two poor runs.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies