8:30 Kempton (AW)
This Class 5 handicap at Kempton over 1m2f219y on standard to slow ground brings together a compact field of five modest performers. The KTB Fit Scores are headed by a pair on 59, Joseph and Madjid, with Pershalla on 51 the only other runner to break the 50 barrier. Recent form is mixed and several runners head into the race with question marks over the trip or the surface.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader scenario with medium confidence. Madjid is the clear front-runner and is expected to secure an uncontested lead from his high draw. Joseph and Pershalla are both held-up types who will look to produce their efforts late, while Thatcham is another who usually comes from off the pace. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will prove hard for the closers to peg back on this surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Joseph KTB Selection59/100
Joseph is a modest performer who has been placed without winning on his last three starts. He has run well at this track in the past, with a second and a fourth from three starts at Kempton, and remains competitive on standard to slow going having been placed once from three attempts. The four-year-old is dropping back in trip today after his most recent run over 1m4f. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer John Butler records a 10% strike rate at Kempton from 822 runs while jockey David Egan has a solid record here with a 12% strike rate.
-
2Madjid59/100
Madjid is a modest performer who has won here from his one run at Kempton. He showed improved form when winning his last two starts over longer trips on turf, though he now drops back in distance to a trip he has never tried. The three-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace and looks sure to take up the running in this small field. The yard has a 10% strike rate at this track from 97 runs. He remains unproven on standard to slow ground.
-
3Pershalla51/100
Pershalla is a modest performer who has won once from three starts at Kempton. She is dropping back in trip today after her last run over 1m3½f, though she has won at this distance before and holds a solid record on standard to slow ground with one win and one placing from three runs. The four-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late. Trainer Amanda Perrett has a 12% strike rate from 746 runs here while Cieren Fallon is aboard. She is stepping up in class.
-
4Thatcham40/100
Thatcham is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts, finishing fifth on his most recent outing. He steps up in trip today for a yard with an 11% strike rate at Kempton from a large sample. The trip is an unknown and the going suitability cannot be judged from such a light record. He is dropping in class.
-
5Rogue Desire36/100
Rogue Desire is a modest performer who has shown little in three runs this year after a placed debut. Stall 1 could help but the yard's poor 4% strike rate at Kempton offers no encouragement. The trip is a fresh question today and the small sample means going suitability remains unknown. He is stepping up in class.
KTB verdict
Joseph is the KTB Selection. He has been placed on his last three starts, has shown his ability at this track before, and remains competitive on the forecast surface while the trainer and jockey both have respectable records at Kempton. The drop back in trip from 1m4f looks a sensible move for a horse who is usually held up. Madjid is the obvious danger having won here on his only previous visit and with an uncontested lead on offer, while Pershalla cannot be ruled out given her course record and proven effectiveness on standard to slow ground.
KTB Selection Joseph
This is the narrative read of the 8:30 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Madjid is the clear front-runner and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has Joseph recorded at Kempton?
Joseph has placed but has no wins from three starts at the track.
What is the trainer strike rate at Kempton for Harry Charlton?
Harry Charlton has a 10% strike rate at Kempton from 97 runs.
Which runners are dropping back in trip for this race?
Joseph is dropping back from 1m4f and Pershalla is dropping back from 1m3½f.
Which horse is unproven on standard to slow ground?
Both Madjid and Rogue Desire have no runs on standard to slow ground.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies