8:32 Newmarket (July)
This Class 5 handicap over a mile at Newmarket's July course brings together a compact field of seven modest performers on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit ratings identify Mertoun as the clear top horse on 69, with King Of Charm, Born A Rebel and Rising Force forming the principal quartet, while the remainder sit lower on the numbers. With no obvious front-runner in a race that lacks a leader, the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handily placed could prove advantageous.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays. Most of the field have limited evidence on run-style, though Rising Force and Drifts Away are usually held up and produce their efforts late, while Crimson Rambler tends to race prominently on or close to the pace. The key question is whether the race will develop into a sprint for the line from a steady gallop, rewarding those who can secure a good position early from their draws.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mertoun KTB Selection69/100Modest performer who arrives in decent nick having won his last two starts.
- 2King Of Charm64/100Modest performer who won over this trip at the course last time and now tries first-time headgear.
- 3Born A Rebel57/100Modest performer who has run creditably on his last two starts and has already won over this trip.
- 4Rising Force56/100Modest performer who has been in and out of form this year.
- 5Drifts Away56/100Modest performer who showed a bit more when winning a 1m handicap at Yarmouth last time.
- 6Currumbin41/100Modest performer who has been out of the frame on his last two starts and now drops back from 1m3f to a trip at which he has placed but never won.
- 7Crimson Rambler41/100Modest performer who has shown consistency without winning for a while, placing in three of his last six starts including a third here over this trip.
The contenders
Mertoun KTB Fit 69/100
Mertoun is a modest performer who arrives in decent nick having won his last two starts. He has already shown he handles this trip and this ground, while the yard's solid record here adds some confidence. Stall 1 could prove ideal on a track where the jockey has struck at a high rate from very few rides. The three-year-old steps up in class but his recent form figures of 8-9211 underline his progress. Jane Chapple-Hyam's 10% strike rate at Newmarket (July) from 239 runs and Alexandra Egan's 29% strike rate at the venue from just seven rides both lend support.
King Of Charm KTB Fit 64/100
King Of Charm is a modest performer who won over this trip at the course last time and now tries first-time headgear. He has a solid record on good to firm with one win and four places from five starts, while both trainer and jockey have respectable strike rates here. Stall seven looks no disadvantage on his known form. The five-year-old's recent form figures read 8-0621 and he has won here once from two visits. Martin Dunne's 14% strike rate at Newmarket (July) from 14 runs and Alice Bond's 14% strike rate at the track from seven rides add to his claims.
Born A Rebel KTB Fit 57/100
Born A Rebel is a modest performer who has run creditably on his last two starts and has already won over this trip. He has also won here at Newmarket from five visits and the yard's 17% strike rate from 30 runs at the track adds some encouragement. First-time headgear is now applied on good to firm ground where he is 1-8. The five-year-old's recent form figures are -72024. Patrick Owens and Benoit de la Sayette combine with a 12% strike rate from 51 runs and an A/E of 1.33.
Rising Force KTB Fit 56/100
Rising Force is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year. He has won six times at this trip but his record on good to firm is only one win from eight starts and he was only fourth of six when he tried this track. Trainer and jockey both have solid rather than strong records here. The five-year-old drops in class with recent form figures of 101845. John Butler's 8% strike rate at Newmarket (July) from 87 runs and Neil Callan's 11% strike rate at the venue from 488 rides reflect steady rather than spectacular course form.
The rest of the field
Drifts AwayKTB Fit 56/100
Drifts Away is a modest performer who showed a bit more when winning a 1m handicap at Yarmouth last time. He has run only once here and finished seventh, while the yard's record at this track is modest. First-time headgear is now tried on ground he likes and at a trip where he has won five times from 14 starts.
CurrumbinKTB Fit 41/100
Currumbin is a modest performer who has been out of the frame on his last two starts and now drops back from 1m3f to a trip at which he has placed but never won. First-time headgear is tried in a bid to spark improvement. Trainer has a solid 14% strike-rate at the track from a smallish sample while the jockey's four rides here are too few to judge.
Crimson RamblerKTB Fit 41/100
Crimson Rambler is a modest performer who has shown consistency without winning for a while, placing in three of his last six starts including a third here over this trip. He drops back from 1m2f to a distance at which he is two from six, and first-time headgear is now tried. Trainer is 0-12 at the track while the jockey operates at a modest 8% strike rate here.
KTB verdict
Mertoun stands out as the KTB Selection. He arrives in decent nick having won his last two starts, has already shown he handles this trip and this ground, and stall 1 could prove ideal given the jockey's high strike rate at the venue from limited rides. The yard's solid record at Newmarket adds further confidence in a steadily-run, tactical affair. His main dangers are King Of Charm, who won over this trip at the course last time and now tries first-time headgear, and Born A Rebel, who has run creditably on his last two starts, has won over the trip and at the track, and now also dons first-time headgear.
KTB Selection Mertoun
This is the narrative read of the 8:32 Newmarket (July). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newmarket (July) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
The pace shape lacks a leader with low confidence and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horses are usually held up?
Rising Force and Drifts Away are usually held up and produce their effort late, though with limited evidence and low confidence.
Which runner tends to race prominently?
Crimson Rambler usually races handily, on or close to the lead, though with limited evidence and low confidence.
How many of the principals are trying first-time headgear?
Two of the principals, King Of Charm and Born A Rebel, are trying first-time headgear.
Which horse steps up in class while another drops in class?
Mertoun is stepping up in class while Rising Force is dropping in class.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Help and support: BeGambleAware.org and the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies