8:38 Haydock
This Class 5 handicap over 6f 212y at Haydock on good ground brings together eleven modest performers in a field where the KTB Fit scores range from 67 down to 41. The race lacks a natural leader and is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy could prove advantageous. Farandaway tops the KTB Fit ratings on the back of a consistent recent record that features two wins, while the principals beneath him bring varying degrees of course experience, recent form and yard support at the track.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field, the pace is expected to be steady and the race tactical. Prominent runners such as Distinct Spirit may find themselves able to dictate matters from a handy position, while the majority of the field, including the selection, tend to be held up and will be looking to produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the lack of early pace will play into the hands of those racing prominently or allow the hold-up performers to close with maximum effect in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Farandaway KTB Selection67/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of 321212 that includes two wins.
- 2Distinct Spirit63/100Modest performer who arrives in decent nick after two wins from his last three starts.
- 3Evocative Spark60/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of 911714 that includes two wins.
- 4Tokyo Joe58/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed fair form when fourth over C&D on his only visit here.
- 5Criminal Shore57/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives off the back of a 1m sixth.
- 6Montezin56/100Modest performer who has been out of form for a while with a string of modest efforts.
- 7Raffles Angel54/100Modest performer with a solid record on good ground and a course win at Haydock from a single run.
- 8Invincible Ruby53/100Modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins and two places from her last five starts.
- 9Magic Music53/100Modest performer who has won once at this trip from seven attempts.
- 10Potomac River47/100Modest performer who has shown ability at this trip, finishing placed once in six attempts.
- 11Bajan Bandit41/100Modest performer who has won over this trip in the past but is dropping back from a mile on his last run.
The contenders
Farandaway KTB Fit 67/100
Farandaway is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 321212 that includes two wins. He has won at this trip from just two attempts and has been competitive on good ground without yet winning on it. The trainer holds an 11% strike rate at Haydock from 54 runs while this is the horse's first visit to the track. Oliver Stammers takes the ride with a 15% strike rate at the venue. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and should be suited by a steadily-run race. The selection has the best recent consistency in the field and is taken to capitalise.
Distinct Spirit KTB Fit 63/100
Distinct Spirit is a modest performer who arrives in decent nick after two wins from his last three starts. He drops back to 6f having won at the trip before, and acts on good ground with two wins from five runs. The trainer strikes at a solid 15% rate here from 41 runs, though the jockey has no record at Haydock. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, he could be well placed in a race that lacks an obvious front-runner. His recent upward curve makes him a serious contender if he can handle the drop in trip.
Evocative Spark KTB Fit 60/100
Evocative Spark is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 911714 that includes two wins. He has placed on his only visit to Haydock and acts on good ground with three wins from 12 starts. He steps back up to a trip he has won at four times from 16 attempts and now tries first-time headgear. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Haydock while the jockey has a 9% strike rate at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a steadily-run affair.
Tokyo Joe KTB Fit 58/100
Tokyo Joe is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed fair form when fourth over C&D on his only visit here. He drops back to 6f today having last run over 7½f, a trip at which he is 0-5 but has been placed. Ed Walker has a solid 20% strike rate at Haydock from a big sample while Tom Marquand is on board. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right in a tactical contest. His course-and-distance experience gives him a clear point of reference against some of his rivals.
Criminal Shore KTB Fit 57/100
Criminal Shore is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives off the back of a 1m sixth. He drops back to 6f today where he is 0-7 and has never looked particularly well suited by the shorter trip. First-time headgear is tried while the yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Haydock. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be aiming to come from off the pace. The combination of the drop in trip and the new headgear leaves him with questions to answer.
The rest of the field
MontezinKTB Fit 56/100
Montezin is a modest performer who has been out of form for a while with a string of modest efforts. He drops back from a mile to a trip where he has placed without winning and tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 34 runs at Haydock.
Raffles AngelKTB Fit 54/100
Raffles Angel is a modest performer with a solid record on good ground and a course win at Haydock from a single run. Recent form has been consistent in weaker company yet she now steps back up in trip having failed to trouble the judge when tried at this distance before. The trainer has a 10% strike rate here from ten runs while Jason Hart rides.
Invincible RubyKTB Fit 53/100
Invincible Ruby is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins and two places from her last five starts. She has won on good ground and at today's trip, though she is making her first visit to Haydock. The trainer has a 10% strike rate here from 137 runs while Hector Crouch is aboard.
Magic MusicKTB Fit 53/100
Magic Music is a modest performer who has won once at this trip from seven attempts. He has shown some spark on this track but finished only sixth on his sole visit and has failed to place in two runs on good ground. The trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate here from a decent-sized sample.
Potomac RiverKTB Fit 47/100
Potomac River is a modest performer who has shown ability at this trip, finishing placed once in six attempts. Recent form has been patchy with three runs this year producing a best of sixth, and the wide draw in stall 11 adds another negative. The trainer is operating at a 0% strike rate from nine rides at Haydock.
Bajan BanditKTB Fit 41/100
Bajan Bandit is a modest performer who has won over this trip in the past but is dropping back from a mile on his last run. He has course winning form here from six visits and the yard's record at Haydock is respectable. First-time headgear is now tried on a horse whose recent form has been ordinary.
KTB verdict
Farandaway has the strongest recent record among these modest performers and looks the one to beat. His two wins from six starts this year, coupled with his proven ability at the trip and competitive efforts on good ground, give him a clear edge. The steadily-run nature of the race should suit his hold-up style, and the trainer-jockey combination adds further appeal. Distinct Spirit, arriving on the back of two recent wins, and Evocative Spark, who has placed here before and tries first-time headgear, are the most obvious dangers. Tokyo Joe and Criminal Shore bring course knowledge and yard form respectively but need to improve on recent efforts to figure prominently.
KTB Selection Farandaway
This is the narrative read of the 8:38 Haydock. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Haydock racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent form figures in the race?
Farandaway, whose figures read 321212 and include two wins.
How many runners in the field are trying first-time headgear?
Three: Evocative Spark, Montezin and Criminal Shore, plus Bajan Bandit also in first-time headgear.
Which horse has course winning form at Haydock?
Raffles Angel has a course win from one visit and Bajan Bandit has course winning form from six visits.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Haydock among those represented?
Ed Walker has a 20% strike rate at Haydock from 282 runs.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Montezin and Invincible Ruby are both dropping in class.
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