8:46 Chepstow
This Class 6 handicap over 1m2f at Chepstow on good to firm ground features a field of nine limited performers where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by Midnight Media on a Fit rating of 61, with Fozzy Osbourne, Crimson Road and Tiger Beetle completing the main quartet on 55, 50 and 45 respectively. Overall the KTB numbers point to a modest contest in which trainer and jockey course records, as well as the ability to handle the trip and ground, will play significant parts.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with low confidence, as there is no obvious front-runner. Those ridden close to the pace are therefore expected to be favoured, and both Midnight Media and All About George have a prominent run style that should see them race handily. The key question is whether the race will develop into a sprint for the line or whether the prominent runners can dictate matters from the front in a steadily run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Midnight Media KTB Selection61/100Limited horse who has shown just fair form at best and is stepping up in trip for the first time today.
- 2Fozzy Osbourne55/100Limited horse who has shown only modest form in four starts, finishing third of eight here over a mile on his most recent outing.
- 3Crimson Road50/100Limited performer who has been out of the frame in all three starts this year and looks vulnerable from a low draw.
- 4Tiger Beetle45/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and arrives here with a first-time hood.
- 5Brodie's Boy45/100Limited class performer with a recent string of modest efforts that offers little encouragement.
- 6Time For Action44/100Limited performer who has been well beaten on all three starts this year and looks no better than his recent form figures suggest.
- 7All About George41/100Limited performer who has shown little in seven runs to date and was well held in both starts this season.
- 8City Escape35/100Limited performer who has been consistent enough to place a few times at this track without ever looking like winning.
- 9Prophet Squeeze32/100Limited performer who has shown very little in recent starts and arrives here in first-time headgear.
The contenders
Midnight Media KTB Fit 61/100
Midnight Media is a limited horse who has shown just fair form at best. He steps up in trip for the first time today having produced a recent placed effort over this distance that offers some encouragement, though his overall profile remains modest. The William Muir & Chris Grassick yard have a 22% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.26 from 23 runs, while jockey Ryan Kavanagh boasts an 18% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.16 from 17 rides. The combination of those solid course records provides a positive angle in a race where his prominent run style should allow him to race on or close to the lead. He has had one run on good to firm without winning or placing and has no previous course form on record.
Fozzy Osbourne KTB Fit 55/100
Fozzy Osbourne is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in four starts, most recently finishing third of eight here over a mile. He now steps up to an untested 1m2f which asks a fresh question of him. The Grace Harris stable has a 9% strike rate at Chepstow from 427 runs, while Joe Leavy operates at a 16% strike rate from 56 rides at the track. He has been placed once from two starts on good to firm without winning and finished third on his sole previous visit to Chepstow. His held-up run style means he will be produced with a late effort in what is expected to be a tactical affair.
Crimson Road KTB Fit 50/100
Crimson Road is a limited performer who has been out of the frame in all three starts this year and looks vulnerable from his low draw. The John & Rhys Flint yard post a 13% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.32 from 60 runs, while William Carson has an 8% strike rate from 245 rides here. He has recorded two wins from ten starts on good to firm and two wins from ten attempts at today's trip, which represent the main positives in his profile. With no course form on record he will need to improve on recent efforts if he is to feature.
Tiger Beetle KTB Fit 45/100
Tiger Beetle is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and now sports first-time headgear. He has placed once from seven starts on good to firm without winning and holds a win at today's trip, yet his two efforts at Chepstow read only modestly. The Thomas Faulkner yard have a 4% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.48 from 48 runs, which is a further negative, although jockey Zoe Lewis has a 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.8 from 14 rides. His prominent run style could see him race handily in a race that may suit those close to the pace.
The rest of the field
Brodie's BoyKTB Fit 45/100
Brodie's Boy is a limited class performer with a recent string of modest efforts that offers little encouragement. He drops back in trip having been placed once at this distance without winning, while first-time headgear is now tried. Both trainer and jockey sit on 9% strike rates at Chepstow from large samples and he has had two runs on good to firm without winning or placing.
Time For ActionKTB Fit 44/100
Time For Action is a limited performer who has been well beaten on all three starts this year and looks no better than his recent form figures suggest. He steps up to 1m2f for the first time today having failed to make an impact at the trip on his sole previous attempt. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at the track from 24 runs while the jockey fares better with 16% from 44 rides. He has no runs on good to firm and is therefore unproven on the ground.
All About GeorgeKTB Fit 41/100
All About George is a limited performer who has shown little in seven runs to date and was well held in both starts this season. First-time headgear is now fitted but he has failed to trouble the judge at this trip on his three previous attempts. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at Chepstow. He has had two runs on good to firm without winning or placing and his prominent run style should see him race handily.
City EscapeKTB Fit 35/100
City Escape is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place a few times at this track without ever looking like winning. He has won over today's trip in the past but his recent form is modest and the first-time headgear is an unknown on ground he has failed to score on. The trainer's poor record here adds to the negatives. He has had four runs on good to firm without winning or placing and has three previous efforts at Chepstow yielding no win or place.
Prophet SqueezeKTB Fit 32/100
Prophet Squeeze is a limited performer who has shown very little in recent starts and arrives here in first-time headgear. He has failed to place in two runs on good to firm and three attempts at this trip, while his sole course visit produced a modest seventh. The trainer holds a 13% strike rate at Chepstow but the jockey is operating below expectations with a 10% record from ten rides.
KTB verdict
Midnight Media is the KTB Selection. He is a limited horse who has shown just fair form at best yet his recent placed effort at this distance offers encouragement, and the combination of trainer and jockey records at Chepstow stands out in this modest field. His prominent run style is also a plus in a muddling, tactical race that should suit those ridden close to the pace. The main dangers are Fozzy Osbourne, who finished third here last time and now tries the longer trip, and Crimson Road, whose two wins from ten starts at the trip provide his chief hope from a low draw.
KTB Selection Midnight Media
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Midnight Media | 11/8 | Bet365 |
| Fozzy Osbourne | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Crimson Road | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| Tiger Beetle | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Brodie's Boy | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Time For Action | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| All About George | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| City Escape | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Prophet Squeeze | 50/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 8:46 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Fozzy Osbourne has a placed effort from one run at Chepstow, while Midnight Media, Crimson Road and Tiger Beetle have no course wins.
How many of the field are wearing first-time headgear?
Four horses are wearing first-time headgear: Tiger Beetle, Brodie's Boy, All About George and City Escape, with Prophet Squeeze also in first-time headgear.
Which runner has the best trainer strike rate at Chepstow?
Midnight Media's trainer has a 22% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.26 from 23 runs.
Who has previously won at this trip?
Crimson Road has two wins from ten at today's trip, Tiger Beetle holds a win at the trip, and City Escape has won over today's trip in the past.
Which horses are likely to race prominently?
Midnight Media and All About George both have a prominent run style and are expected to race handily or close to the lead.
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