8:55 Kempton (AW)
This Class 6 handicap division at Kempton over a mile on standard to slow going features an 11-runner field where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are all dropping in class, which adds an extra layer of competitiveness to proceedings on a surface that has suited several of them before. KTB's numbers point to a race with a handful of viable contenders, though the selection stands out with the highest Fit rating and positive course history.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo with no obvious front-runner dominating, though several runners prefer to be handy. Spirit Lead Me from draw three and Between Me And U from draw two are likely to track the pace closely, while those drawn wider such as Opening Bat and Union Island may settle midfield. The key question is whether the race develops into a sprint for the line from the final bend, in which case those with proven placed form on this surface could hold the advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Spirit Lead Me KTB Selection60/100
- 2Opening Bat58/100
- 3Look Back Smiling56/100
- 4Between Me And U54/100
- 5Union Island52/100
- 6Devious Devan47/100
- 7Finn Ironside44/100
- 8Cherry Hill39/100
- 9Beau Jardine38/100
- 10Sub Thirteen37/100
- 11Hawaiian King31/100
The contenders
Spirit Lead Me KTB Fit 60/100
Spirit Lead Me tops the KTB Fit ratings at 60 and is the clear selection. A 4-year-old with two wins from six starts at Kempton, he has shown he handles standard to slow going with two victories from six attempts. Dropping in class looks a positive move and the trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at the track from 626 runs. The jockey also performs well here with a 14% strike rate and 1.06 A/E from 14 rides. Recent form of 689998 is modest but the ability to win over this course and the inside draw should see him involved in the finish.
Opening Bat KTB Fit 58/100
Opening Bat carries a KTB Fit score of 58 and arrives as one of the more interesting contenders dropping in class. The 4-year-old has won here from two starts at Kempton and boasts a record of one win from two on standard to slow going. Harry Charlton's 9% strike rate at the track is modest yet the jockey Lewis Edmunds has a strong 15% strike rate and 1.39 A/E from 263 rides at Kempton. Recent form reads 338-00, which suggests he may need to rediscover his best, but his course-winning ability cannot be ignored.
Look Back Smiling KTB Fit 56/100
Look Back Smiling is rated 56 on KTB Fit and is another dropping into this lower grade. The 6-year-old has been competitive on standard to slow going without winning, placing once from four starts. He has run just once at Kempton, finishing fourth, and the trainer's 11% strike rate with 1.09 A/E from 216 runs at the track offers some encouragement. Oisin Murphy takes the ride with an 18% strike rate and 0.9 A/E from an impressive 1404 rides here. Recent form of 069-04 indicates he retains ability and he should be in the mix.
Between Me And U KTB Fit 54/100
Between Me And U has a KTB Fit of 54 and holds solid placed form on this surface. The 5-year-old has been placed on both starts on standard to slow going and has two thirds from two runs at Kempton. Michael Herrington's partnership with David Probert shows a healthy 21% strike rate and 1.73 A/E with positive returns. The trainer's record at Kempton is 10% with 0.76 A/E, while the jockey's 11% strike rate from 2167 rides is respectable. Recent form of 326-67 is a touch patchy but his course and going profile makes him a definite player from a low draw.
Union Island KTB Fit 52/100
Union Island is next in with a KTB Fit score of 52. The 5-year-old has recent form of 015434 which includes a win and consistent efforts in similar company. Charlie Johnston's record at Kempton stands at 11% with 0.81 A/E from 263 runs, while the claiming jockey has a 13% strike rate here. He has three runs on standard to slow going without placing and no course form on record, which leaves him with a bit to prove at this venue. Nevertheless his recent efforts suggest he can be competitive if the race shape suits.
The rest of the field
Devious DevanKTB Fit 47/100
Devious Devan has a KTB Fit of 47 and is dropping in class. Recent form of 7-8017 includes a win but he has shown little on this surface or at Kempton from two starts.
Finn IronsideKTB Fit 44/100
Finn Ironside is rated 44 on KTB Fit. The 5-year-old has been competitive on standard to slow going without winning and the trainer has an 8% strike rate at the track, though the jockey is yet to score from 17 rides here.
Cherry HillKTB Fit 39/100
Cherry Hill has a KTB Fit of 39. A previous winner here from eight starts at Kempton, she has a record of one win from eight on standard to slow but recent form of 00-800 is poor.
Beau JardineKTB Fit 38/100
Beau Jardine carries a KTB Fit of 38. The 8-year-old has been placed on this surface and at Kempton from nine starts without winning, though the trainer has a 0% strike rate at the track from 47 runs.
Sub ThirteenKTB Fit 37/100
Sub Thirteen is rated 37. Recent form of 662083 shows some consistency but the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Kempton and the horse is yet to win or place in two runs here on standard to slow.
Hawaiian KingKTB Fit 31/100
Hawaiian King has the lowest KTB Fit at 31. The 4-year-old has two runs on standard to slow without placing and similar efforts at Kempton from two starts, with both trainer and jockey showing modest records at the venue.
KTB verdict
Spirit Lead Me emerges as the KTB Selection with the highest Fit score, proven course form including two wins from six starts at Kempton, and a favourable draw. He has handled standard to slow going successfully before and the drop in class looks well timed. The main dangers are Opening Bat, who has won over the course, and Look Back Smiling, whose jockey booking and placed form on the surface add to his claims, while Between Me And U also has strong placed form at this track and trip.
KTB Selection Spirit Lead Me
This is the narrative read of the 8:55 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Kempton in this race?
Spirit Lead Me with two wins from six starts at the track.
How many of the principals are dropping in class?
All five principals are dropping in class.
Which runner has the strongest jockey record at Kempton according to the A/E?
Lewis Edmunds riding Opening Bat with an A/E of 1.39 from 263 rides.
Which horse has been placed at Kempton without winning?
Between Me And U has two thirds from two starts at the track, and Beau Jardine has been placed from nine runs here.
What is the going record of the selection?
Spirit Lead Me has two wins from six starts on standard to slow going.
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