8:59 Catterick
This Class 5 handicap over the extended 7f at Catterick on good ground features a field of ten where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. Vince Le Prince heads the numbers with a 61 rating, closely followed by Tattie Bogle on 60 and Coconut Bay on 57, while several others sit in the low-to-mid 50s. The official ratings cluster around the 78-83 mark, suggesting a competitive race in which course experience and the ability to handle a strong pace will be key.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace confidently predicted, the race is set to be run at a searching gallop thanks to two or more habitual front-runners. Coconut Bay and Uppercase are both noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, while Vince Le Prince and In A Hurry like to race handily. This shape is likely to test those up with the pace and could collapse late, handing the advantage to hold-up performers such as Tattie Bogle, Pouting, Habrdi, Qazaq, Jenni and Imperial Guard. The key question is whether the prominent runners can withstand the early pressure or if the race will fall into the lap of a patient closer.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Vince Le Prince KTB Selection61/100Vince Le Prince is a fair handicapper who has won three times at Catterick from ten runs and also has five wins from 39 starts at this trip.
- 2Tattie Bogle60/100Fair performer who arrives in decent nick having shown his usual consistency with form figures of 531823.
- 3Coconut Bay57/100Coconut Bay is a fair handicapper who has won three times at Catterick from 12 starts and also has a solid record at today's trip with six wins from 38 attempts…
- 4In A Hurry55/100Fair performer who has run well here in the past, finishing third of 12 over this trip last season.
- 5Pouting52/100Pouting is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and recent form but has struggled to land a blow this year.
- 6Habrdi51/100Habrdi is a fair handicapper who has been in and out of form this year and ran respectably when sixth over course and distance last time.
- 7Qazaq51/100Qazaq is a fair handicapper who has run to a similar level all year without winning.
- 8Uppercase49/100Uppercase is a fair maiden who has shown consistent form without winning, placing at this trip on three of four attempts.
- 9Jenni48/100Jenni is a fair mare who has run respectably at this track without winning.
- 10Imperial Guard42/100Imperial Guard is a fair performer on his best days but has been well below form in both starts this year.
The contenders
Vince Le Prince KTB Fit 61/100
Vince Le Prince is a fair handicapper who has won three times at Catterick from ten runs and also has five wins from 39 starts at this trip. He arrives in solid form with two seconds from his last four outings and an RPR of 83 that matches his class level though his Topspeed figure of 70 suggests he does not always produce his best. The Tim Easterby yard has a 12% strike rate here from a large sample while David Allan is 10% from 932 rides at the track. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is drawn in stall five which should allow him to take up a good early position in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. He has won here and holds a respectable record on good ground with one success from 18 starts. Overall he shapes as the one to beat.
Tattie Bogle KTB Fit 60/100
Tattie Bogle is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick having shown his usual consistency with form figures of 531823. Placed on his only previous run at Catterick and has won once from four starts on good ground while also successful at this trip in the past. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track though the wide draw in stall nine is far from ideal. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the strong pace that is anticipated. Charlie Johnston has a 15% strike rate at Catterick with an A/E of 1.05 from 53 runs, while Jason Hart posts a 14% strike rate from 493 rides at the track. His RPR of 80 puts him firmly in the mix.
Coconut Bay KTB Fit 57/100
Coconut Bay is a fair handicapper who has won three times at Catterick from 12 starts and also has a solid record at today's trip with six wins from 38 attempts. He steps up from 6f today having shown modest form on his last three starts but his career-high RPR of 80 suggests he remains competitive at this level when on song. The trainer holds a respectable record here while the jockey's strike rate is more modest. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be prominent in a race where the pace shape is strong. He has two wins from 12 starts on good ground and his three course victories underline his liking for Catterick.
In A Hurry KTB Fit 55/100
In A Hurry is a fair performer who has run well here in the past, finishing third of 12 over this trip last season. Has won on good ground and at this distance but has been below form on both starts this year and his recent efforts suggest he needs to improve to be competitive. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead with high confidence, he should be up with the pace in what is set to be a strongly run race. Daniel Tudhope boasts an 18% strike rate at Catterick from 465 rides while David O'Meara is 14% from 556 runs here.
Pouting KTB Fit 52/100
Pouting is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and recent form but has struggled to land a blow this year. She has no wins or places from five runs on good ground and was well held on her only attempt at this trip. The trainer holds a solid record here while the jockey's strike-rate is more modest. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is suited by the strong pace that looks likely. Drawn in stall one she has a good inside berth from which to mount a challenge. Her RPR of 78 keeps her in the equation at this level.
The rest of the field
HabrdiKTB Fit 51/100
Habrdi is a fair handicapper who has been in and out of form this year and ran respectably when sixth over course and distance last time. He has won twice at this trip but is 0-5 on good ground and his recent efforts suggest he is vulnerable to anything progressive. The yard and jockey both have solid 12% records at Catterick.
QazaqKTB Fit 51/100
Qazaq is a fair handicapper who has run to a similar level all year without winning. He has winning form at this trip and has shown he can be competitive on good ground, though his recent efforts have been a bit up and down. The yard and jockey both have established records at Catterick without setting the place alight.
UppercaseKTB Fit 49/100
Uppercase is a fair maiden who has shown consistent form without winning, placing at this trip on three of four attempts. Recent efforts include a solid third at Yarmouth last time though the Topspeed figure of 53 suggests he failed to build on an earlier career best of 81. The trainer has an 8 percent strike rate from 12 runs here while the jockey is operating at 13 percent from 16 rides.
JenniKTB Fit 48/100
Jenni is a fair mare who has run respectably at this track without winning. She has a win and three places from 15 runs on good ground but her recent form has been modest with two poor efforts this season. Stepping back up to 7f is a positive as she has won twice at the trip from 13 starts though the yard and jockey records here are only modest.
Imperial GuardKTB Fit 42/100
Imperial Guard is a fair performer on his best days but has been well below form in both starts this year. He steps up from 6f to a trip he has placed at without winning and acts on good ground having been placed twice from six runs. Trainer Michael Dods has a 10% strike rate here from 515 runs while jockey Connor Beasley posts a 14% strike rate from 301 rides.
KTB verdict
Vince Le Prince is the KTB Selection. He has won three times at Catterick, boasts solid recent form with two seconds from his last four starts, and his prominent run-style should see him ideally placed in a race where the pace is set to be strong. The Tim Easterby and David Allan combination also have respectable records at the track. Main dangers are Tattie Bogle, who is suited by the strong pace from the rear and arrives in consistent form, and Coconut Bay, who has a fine record at the course and trip and is likely to set the fractions.
KTB Selection Vince Le Prince
This is the narrative read of the 8:59 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Tattie Bogle, Pouting, Habrdi, Qazaq, Jenni and Imperial Guard are all usually held up and produce their effort late, which should suit the strong pace that is likely to collapse late.
How many course wins does Vince Le Prince have at Catterick?
Vince Le Prince has three course wins from ten runs at Catterick.
Which runners are likely to set the early pace?
Coconut Bay and Uppercase both tend to make the running or race on the pace, while Vince Le Prince and In A Hurry usually race handily on or close to the lead.
What is Coconut Bay's record at this trip?
Coconut Bay has six wins from 38 attempts at this trip.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Catterick in this field?
Daragh Bourke has a 17% strike rate at Catterick with an A/E of 1.82 from 12 runs.
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