6:10 Ascot
The Copper Horse Stakes is a competitive Class 2 handicap over 1m6f34y at Ascot on good to firm ground, featuring a field of 16 runners where stamina and course experience are likely to be key. The KTB Fit Scores highlight Ascending as the top-rated on 69, followed closely by Daiquiri Bay and Valiancy on 63, with the rest of the field showing modest to useful ability on the balance of their ratings and recent form. Overall the numbers point to a race where proven performers at the track and trip hold an edge, though several runners step up or down in distance and class while others remain unproven on the surface.
How the race shapes up
With a field of this size and a pace shape that suggests a truly run affair, the race is likely to be contested at a solid gallop from the start. Several prominent runners including Real Dream from stall 1 and Paddy The Squire could vie for the lead early, while mid-pack types such as Ascending and Enemy look set to track the pace before making their moves. The key question is whether the wide draws of the top principals like Valiancy in 14 and Enemy in 18 will prove a hindrance in a big-field handicap or if their class can overcome the traffic issues posed by a strongly run 1m6f.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ascending KTB Selection69/100Useful performer who has won once from two starts at this track.
- 2Daiquiri Bay63/100Useful performer who showed his best form when winning a 1m4f handicap at Sandown last time.
- 3Valiancy63/100Valiancy is a useful performer who arrives in form after winning four of his last five starts.
- 4Enemy60/100Enemy is a useful performer with a solid record here including a win from six runs at Ascot.
- 5Stressfree59/100Useful performer who has been competitive in recent starts without winning.
- 6Gamrai58/100Useful performer who has shown a solid level of consistency with form figures of 124-12.
- 7Real Dream57/100Real Dream is a useful performer who has won at this track from just two runs and also has a win over today's trip on his record.
- 8Hallelujah U57/100Hallelujah U is a useful performer who has mixed form this year and was well held when last seen over 2m.
- 9Yashin55/100Yashin is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at Ascot itself.
- 10Paddy The Squire54/100Paddy The Squire is a useful performer who arrives in solid form having won twice last season.
- 11Sing Us A Song49/100Sing Us A Song is a useful performer who has shown solid form this year with placed efforts on his last two starts.
- 12Green Cape49/100Green Cape is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race record with two wins from nine starts.
- 13Incensed45/100Incensed is a useful performer who arrives in decent form after two placed efforts this year.
- 14Duraji44/100Useful performer who ran creditably when third at Sandown last time after a break.
- 15Aeronautic44/100Useful performer who has run to a similar level on both starts this year without progressing.
- 16Ernst Blofeld41/100Useful performer who showed his best form when winning at Kempton last time but that was over 1m4f and he now steps up in trip for the first time.
The contenders
Ascending KTB Fit 69/100
Ascending arrives as a useful performer with a strong record at this venue, having won once from two starts at Ascot. He has a solid record on good to firm ground with one win from four starts and two places, and is dropping back in trip today having been placed on both his previous attempts at this distance. The seven-year-old is dropping in class which should suit, and he has the benefit of a good draw in stall 6 from which to track the pace. Trainer Henry De Bromhead holds a 9% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.9 from 22 runs, while jockey W J Lee is operating at 11% with an A/E of 1.23 from 36 rides here. Recent form of 1126-7 underlines his consistency at this level.
Daiquiri Bay KTB Fit 63/100
Daiquiri Bay is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning a 1m4f handicap at Sandown on his most recent start. He now steps up in trip having been placed without winning over this distance on his sole attempt, and his two runs at Ascot have produced no better than fifth. The four-year-old has a respectable record on good to firm with one win from three starts and two places. Trainer Alan King has a 13% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.95 from a large sample of 459 runs, while Rossa Ryan matches that with a 10% record from 223 rides. His recent form of 4353-1 suggests he is in good order heading into this assignment.
Valiancy KTB Fit 63/100
Valiancy is a useful performer who arrives in excellent form after winning four of his last five starts. He steps up in trip having already won once over today's distance from three attempts, though he has no course form on record. The four-year-old is stepping up in class which represents a new test, and he is unproven on good to firm ground. Trainer William Haggas has a 13% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.88 from 831 runs, while James Doyle is on 12% with an A/E of 1.01 from 599 rides. The wide draw in stall 14 is the main negative on this big-field card.
Enemy KTB Fit 60/100
Enemy is a useful performer with a solid record here including a win from six runs at Ascot. He steps up in trip today having last run over a mile and three furlongs though he has won over this distance in the past. The nine-year-old has a modest record on good to firm with one win from 13 starts and four places. Trainer Ian Williams has a 9% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.94 from 383 runs, while Cieren Fallon has a solid 12% strike rate from 106 rides here. Recent efforts of -13109 show mixed form but his course knowledge is a plus from a wide draw in stall 18.
Stressfree KTB Fit 59/100
Stressfree is a useful performer who has been competitive in recent starts without winning, as shown by his form figures of 355-27. He steps up in trip today having already placed twice at this distance though never scored, and his record on good to firm is solid if winless with two places from three starts. The six-year-old has only run once at Ascot and finished well beaten. Trainer David O'Meara has a modest 4% strike rate here from a huge sample of 436 runs with an A/E of 0.64, while Daniel Tudhope is on 8% with an A/E of 0.99 from 300 rides. The combination of trip and track asks a question of him.
The rest of the field
GamraiKTB Fit 58/100
Gamrai is a useful performer who has shown a solid level of consistency with form figures of 124-12. He steps up in trip to 1m6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer John & Thady Gosden holds a 14% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.85 from 281 runs while jockey Oisin Murphy has an 11% record from 509 rides here.
Real DreamKTB Fit 57/100
Real Dream is a useful performer who has won at this track from just two runs and also has a win over today's trip on his record. He has been out of form this year though with a string of ordinary efforts and steps up in distance from 1m3f. The trainer has a solid 9% strike rate at Ascot from a big sample while the jockey is less effective here at 5%.
Hallelujah UKTB Fit 57/100
Hallelujah U is a useful performer who has mixed form this year and was well held when last seen over 2m. He has run just once at Ascot and never won at today's trip from two attempts, though he did win on good to firm ground earlier in his career. The yard has a 7% strike rate here from 30 runs while Luke Morris is on 7% from 261 rides at the track.
YashinKTB Fit 55/100
Yashin is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at Ascot itself. He has been out of sorts in recent starts though and the first-time headgear is now reached for off the back of a poor return. Both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track.
Paddy The SquireKTB Fit 54/100
Paddy The Squire is a useful performer who arrives in solid form having won twice last season. He acts on good to firm ground with two wins from four starts on it but steps up in trip today having only run once before at this distance without success. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from ten runs at Ascot while the jockey is 3% from 40 rides here.
Sing Us A SongKTB Fit 49/100
Sing Us A Song is a useful performer who has shown solid form this year with placed efforts on his last two starts. He won when tried over today's trip earlier in his career but was well held on his only previous run at Ascot and has yet to show his best on good to firm ground. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 437 runs at the track while the jockey is operating at 7% from 91 rides here.
Green CapeKTB Fit 49/100
Green Cape is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race record with two wins from nine starts. He steps up in trip today having not yet been asked this far and has no experience of good to firm ground. The Crisford yard and De Sousa both operate at modest strike rates here.
IncensedKTB Fit 45/100
Incensed is a useful performer who arrives in decent form after two placed efforts this year. The step up to 1m6f asks a fresh question as he has been beaten both previous starts at the trip and his only good-to-firm placing came over shorter. Trainer Amanda Perrett has a modest 7% strike rate at Ascot from a large sample while jockey Kieran Shoemark records a solid 9% strike rate here.
DurajiKTB Fit 44/100
Duraji is a useful performer who ran creditably when third at Sandown last time after a break. He drops back from 2m2f to a trip he has tried three times without success while the yard and jockey both have poor records at Ascot. Unproven on good to firm ground adds to the unknowns.
AeronauticKTB Fit 44/100
Aeronautic is a useful performer who has run to a similar level on both starts this year without progressing. He has shown he stays this trip but has only managed fifth on his one visit to Ascot and has failed to place on his sole run on good to firm ground. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track adds to the negatives.
Ernst BlofeldKTB Fit 41/100
Ernst Blofeld is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning at Kempton last time but that was over 1m4f and he now steps up in trip for the first time. He has been well beaten on his only previous visit to Ascot and has failed to place in two runs on good to firm ground. Hamad Al Jehani has a modest 6% strike rate here from 17 runs while Billy Loughnane is 8% from 107 rides at the track.
KTB verdict
Ascending stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 69 and a proven record at this venue where he has won once from two starts. His solid good-to-firm form, favourable draw and drop in class all add up to a strong profile for a race that should be run at a true gallop, allowing him to come from mid-pack to best effect. The main dangers are headed by Daiquiri Bay, who arrives in peak form after his Sandown success and has the benefit of strong trainer and jockey stats at the track, while Valiancy cannot be dismissed despite the wide draw given his excellent recent winning sequence.
KTB Selection Ascending
This is the narrative read of the 6:10 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent winning record?
Valiancy has won four of his last five starts.
How many horses are unproven on good to firm ground?
Valiancy, Green Cape and Duraji have no runs on good to firm, while several others have limited experience.
Who has the strongest trainer-jockey combination at Ascot?
William Haggas and James Doyle hold 13% and 12% strike rates respectively from very large samples at the track.
Which runners have previous wins at Ascot?
Ascending, Enemy, Real Dream and Yashin have all won at the track.
What is the widest draw among the principals?
Enemy is drawn in stall 18.
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