5:00 Ascot
The Ascot Stakes is a competitive Class 2 heritage handicap over 2m3f210y on good to firm ground, featuring a field of 20 runners where stamina and adaptability to the trip will be key. KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Beylerbeyi heading the list on 60 despite stepping up markedly in distance, while several others sit in the low 50s and are asked fresh questions about trip or track. Official ratings place most of the field in the useful category, with recent form suggesting a race that could turn on how the stamina reserves hold up in the latter stages.
How the race shapes up
The race-level pace shape points to a steady gallop with a handful of prominent runners likely to take an early lead from stalls three through to eight. Barnso from draw three and Kizlyar in six look set to contest the front, while several mid-pack types including Beylerbeyi from stall 16 and Mordor from 12 may settle in behind. The key question is whether the leaders can maintain the tempo without overdoing it on this stiff stamina test, or if the race will fall into the hands of those delivered from off the pace in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Beylerbeyi KTB Selection60/100Beylerbeyi is a useful performer with solid placed form this year but has been out of the frame on his last three starts and now steps up markedly in trip from…
- 2Mordor52/100Useful performer who arrives in solid form after a recent win.
- 3Barnso52/100Barnso is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history and has shown he can be competitive at this level.
- 4Bahadur51/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a solid sixth last time.
- 5Bunting50/100Useful performer who has been a model of consistency without winning often.
- 6Reaching High48/100Useful performer who showed little on his only previous visit to Ascot when finishing ninth.
- 7Tim Toe48/100Tim Toe is a useful performer on the back of a solid recent sequence of 131 that includes two wins.
- 8Kizlyar48/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick after winning last time.
- 9Lavender Hill Mob47/100Useful performer who has failed to land a blow in two runs at this track and looks up against it from stall two.
- 10All In You47/100Useful performer who has placed on his only previous visit to Ascot.
- 11Ismahane47/100Ismahane has built a solid profile through consistent placed efforts in four runs and holds a useful rating that makes her competitive at this level.
- 12Comfort Zone46/100Comfort Zone is a useful performer who has placed on both his previous tries at this trip and on good to firm ground.
- 13Defiantly46/100Useful performer who ran creditably when fourth on his most recent start.
- 14Siempre Arturo45/100Useful performer who ran respectably when fifth over 1m4f here last time but now steps up markedly in trip to 2m3f for the first time.
- 15Small Fry44/100Useful performer who has won three times from his last five starts though he was well below form when last seen.
- 16Annabel's Ghost44/100Useful performer who has shown decent form this year but has been below par on her last two starts.
- 17Westminster Moon42/100Westminster Moon is a useful performer on his day and arrives in decent nick after a win at the last attempt.
- 18Galileo Dame40/100Galileo Dame is a useful performer with solid recent efforts when second and fourth in competitive races.
- 19Glenroyal40/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick after winning twice on the all-weather over the winter.
- 20Puturhandstogether38/100Useful performer who has been largely consistent without winning often.
The contenders
Beylerbeyi KTB Fit 60/100
Beylerbeyi is a useful performer with solid placed form this year but has been out of the frame on his last three starts and now steps up markedly in trip from 1m2f. He showed little on his only previous visit to Ascot and the wide draw in stall 16 is another negative. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey is 8% from 107 rides. Billy Loughnane teams up with the Ian Williams stable, which shows a 35/172 record with an A/E of 1.03. Beylerbeyi has recorded two wins from six starts on good to firm and his recent form of 322360 underlines consistency at a level just below this. As the KTB selection he is taken to find the necessary improvement for the longer trip despite the negatives.
Mordor KTB Fit 52/100
Mordor is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after a recent win. He drops back from 3m to an untried 2m4f trip which poses a fresh question while the first run at Ascot is neutral rather than a negative. Trainer Gordon Elliott has a good 17% strike rate here and the horse handles good to firm ground, with one win from three starts on the surface. Jamie Spencer is in the saddle, a jockey with a 10% strike rate at Ascot from 907 rides, and the pair are part of a trainer-jockey combination that reads 3/27 with an A/E of 0.68. Recent form of 1020-1 shows clear ability and he could be suited by the drop in distance if he settles in mid-division.
Barnso KTB Fit 52/100
Barnso is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history and has shown he can be competitive at this level. He finished a respectable fourth on his only visit to Ascot and has placed once from two starts on good to firm ground. The step up to 2m3f today asks a fresh question of him while the trainer’s small sample at the track offers no clear steer. Rossa Ryan rides, a jockey with a 10% strike rate at Ascot from 223 rides, and the yard of Miss Natalia Lupini has a 0% record from two previous runs here. His form of 44460- suggests he stays well enough to be in the mix if the trip proves within range from his low draw.
Bahadur KTB Fit 51/100
Bahadur is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a solid sixth last time. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question while the first run at Ascot is neutral rather than a negative. Trainer S Woods strikes at 9% here from 86 runs and the jockey Robert Havlin at 8% from 238 rides, part of a trainer-jockey record that stands at 37/226 with an A/E of 1.13. Bahadur has placed twice from four starts on good to firm and his form of 11-651 shows progressive signs before the class rise. From draw 13 he may be ridden prominently and could go well if the extra distance brings about further improvement.
Bunting KTB Fit 50/100
Bunting is a useful performer who has been a model of consistency without winning often. Placed on his only start on good to firm and has run twice over today's trip without success, so the distance looks about right without being ideal. Mullins has a solid 17% strike rate at Ascot from 108 runs while this is the jockey's first meaningful look at the track. Harry Vigors takes the ride with a 7lb claim and the yard's record with him is part of the 17% Ascot strike rate. Recent form of 3/453- underlines his reliability and he could be thereabouts if he handles the good to firm ground as expected from a mid-draw.
The rest of the field
Reaching HighKTB Fit 48/100
Reaching High is a useful performer who showed little on his only previous visit to Ascot when finishing ninth. He has placed once from three starts on good to firm but remains winless on that surface and has also failed to land a blow in one run at this trip. Mullins has a solid 17% strike rate here while Moore sits on 14% from 1213 rides at the track.
Tim ToeKTB Fit 48/100
Tim Toe is a useful performer on the back of a solid recent sequence of 131 that includes two wins. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over a mile and that leaves him with a big question to answer. The yard has a 9% strike-rate at Ascot while Ronan Whelan is operating at 3% here from 30 rides.
KizlyarKTB Fit 48/100
Kizlyar is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after winning last time. The step up to 2m4f poses a fresh question having last run over 1m6f. Trainer has a modest 4% strike rate here from 130 runs while jockey has struck at a 17% rate from only six rides.
Lavender Hill MobKTB Fit 47/100
Lavender Hill Mob is a useful performer who has failed to land a blow in two runs at this track and looks up against it from stall two. First-time headgear is a possible plus but he has looked limited on his last two starts and steps up in trip having never won or placed on good to firm ground. Trainer and jockey both have solid enough records here though the yard's strike rate remains modest.
All In YouKTB Fit 47/100
All In You is a useful performer who has placed on his only previous visit to Ascot. He steps up in trip today having shown nothing at this distance on his one previous attempt, while he is completely unproven on good to firm ground. The yard's modest record at the track is offset by the jockey's solid strike rate here.
IsmahaneKTB Fit 47/100
Ismahane has built a solid profile through consistent placed efforts in four runs and holds a useful rating that makes her competitive at this level. The step up to 2m3f today asks a fresh question of her stamina though her recent form suggests she should see it out well enough. Trainer Twomey has an 8% strike rate from 12 runs at Ascot while jockey Lee posts an 11% strike rate from 36 rides here.
Comfort ZoneKTB Fit 46/100
Comfort Zone is a useful performer who has placed on both his previous tries at this trip and on good to firm ground. He showed some ability when third here over shorter but his recent form of 003-0P is patchy and he now steps up markedly in distance from 1m4f. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Ascot is another negative.
DefiantlyKTB Fit 46/100
Defiantly is a useful performer who ran creditably when fourth on his most recent start. He steps up markedly in trip today and tries headgear for the first time while the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Ascot offers little encouragement. James Doyle's 12% record at the track is more positive but this remains a stiff task on balance.
Siempre ArturoKTB Fit 45/100
Siempre Arturo is a useful performer who ran respectably when fifth over 1m4f here last time but now steps up markedly in trip to 2m3f for the first time. Has a win on good to firm from four starts on the surface though the yard's 3% strike rate from 39 runs at Ascot is a negative. Jockey has a solid 9% record at the track from 138 rides.
Small FryKTB Fit 44/100
Small Fry is a useful performer who has won three times from his last five starts though he was well below form when last seen. Trainer has a modest 4% strike rate at Ascot from 130 runs while the jockey fares better with an 11% record from 509 rides. Steps up in trip today having only run once on good to firm ground.
Annabel's GhostKTB Fit 44/100
Annabel's Ghost is a useful performer who has shown decent form this year but has been below par on her last two starts. Steps up markedly in trip today having not been beyond 1m7f previously which asks a fresh question of her. Trainer and jockey both have solid 13% strike rates at Ascot while this is her first run here.
Westminster MoonKTB Fit 42/100
Westminster Moon is a useful performer on his day and arrives in decent nick after a win at the last attempt. He steps up markedly in trip today having never been beyond 1m6f and has no experience of fast ground. The trainer has an 8 percent strike rate here from 26 runs while the jockey is operating at 5 percent from 121 rides.
Galileo DameKTB Fit 40/100
Galileo Dame is a useful performer with solid recent efforts when second and fourth in competitive races. The step up in trip looks a fair question given she has placed over this distance before though she remains unproven on good to firm ground. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ascot and this is her first run here.
GlenroyalKTB Fit 40/100
Glenroyal is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after winning twice on the all-weather over the winter. Only one run at this sort of trip and just a placed effort on good to firm so far. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Ascot.
PuturhandstogetherKTB Fit 38/100
Puturhandstogether is a useful performer who has been largely consistent without winning often. Steps up in trip today with first-time headgear and has no experience of good to firm ground which adds uncertainty. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ascot.
KTB verdict
Beylerbeyi is the KTB selection in a race where several useful performers are asked to answer new questions about trip or track. His solid placed form this year and proven ability on good to firm ground give him a clear chance if the step up to 2m4f brings about the necessary improvement, despite the wide draw and modest course record for both horse and trainer. The main dangers are Mordor, who arrives in form and is helped by Elliott's strong Ascot record, and Barnso, who has shown he can be competitive at this level and has placed form at the track. Bahadur and Bunting are also likely to be in the mix if their respective trip queries are answered positively.
KTB Selection Beylerbeyi
This is the narrative read of the 5:00 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and is the selection?
Beylerbeyi with a KTB Fit Score of 60/100.
How many runners have no previous form at Ascot?
Ten runners have no course form on record.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Ascot in this field?
Gordon Elliott has a 17% strike rate at Ascot from 35 runs.
How many horses are stepping up markedly in trip according to the KTB Intelligence?
Eight horses are stepping up markedly in trip.
Who rides the horse with first-time headgear from draw two?
Cieren Fallon rides Lavender Hill Mob, who wears first-time headgear.
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