7:15 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 6 handicap over 1m4f51y at Wolverhampton on standard ground brings together a field of largely unproven or limited three-year-olds. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Bumaan and Mick The Hat sharing a 51 rating, just ahead of Ada Rose and Last Flight on 50 and Al Amirah on 49. Several runners are dropping in class while others step up markedly in trip, and the first-time headgear on the selection adds an extra layer of interest in a race where many profiles remain modest.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner among the declared runners the pace shape is likely to be on the steady side early. Several horses have shown a preference for racing prominently or in midfield, which could see the race develop into a test of stamina as they turn for home. The key question is whether any of the more exposed types can finally break their maiden tag or if one of the less-exposed runners stepping up in distance can find the necessary improvement from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Bumaan KTB Selection51/100Bumaan has shown only limited ability in three starts to date and steps up markedly in trip today as a fresh question.
- 2Mick The Hat51/100Limited horse who has shown only modest form in four runs and was well held when fifth on his only previous visit here.
- 3Ada Rose50/100Limited filly who has shown her best at this track with a placed effort from two runs here.
- 4Last Flight50/100Last Flight has shown little in three starts to date and looks limited on what he has produced.
- 5Al Amirah49/100Al Amirah has shown only limited ability in six runs and has failed to place in three starts at this track.
- 6Ethereal Charm44/100Ethereal Charm has shown only limited ability in five runs to date and failed to build on a fair seventh on handicap debut when well held at this track last tim…
- 7Risk Averse Rebel43/100Limited and largely exposed after nine runs this year this 3-year-old has been placed on four of his last five starts yet remains a maiden.
- 8Keep It Classic42/100Limited horse who has shown only modest form in seven runs and was well held when sixth at Kempton last time.
- 9Panthere Noir36/100Panthere Noir has shown modest form at best in 13 runs this year and looks limited at this level.
- 10Lady Lauren32/100Limited filly who has been placed three times but showed little spark when finishing sixth on her latest start.
The contenders
Bumaan KTB Fit 51/100
Bumaan has shown only limited ability in three starts to date and steps up markedly in trip today as a fresh question. The first-time headgear is an unknown that could help him settle better off a wide draw. Trainer George Boughey and jockey Jack Callan both have solid records at Wolverhampton but this looks a stiff task on what we have seen so far. The yard's 17% strike rate at the track from 488 runs and the jockey's 16% from 44 rides provide some encouragement. Dropping in class is another positive factor. Overall the KTB Fit score of 51 marks him out as the selection in a race full of modest profiles.
Mick The Hat KTB Fit 51/100
Mick The Hat is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in four runs and was well held when fifth on his only previous visit here. He has at least managed a place over today's trip and the yard's solid record at the track offers some hope he can improve. Ralph Beckett's 18% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 508 runs is respectable while Jack Dace takes off 5 lb. This still looks a stiff task from stall 10 though. The KTB Fit score of 51 puts him squarely in the mix with the selection. Dropping in class is a positive but the wide draw remains a concern.
Ada Rose KTB Fit 50/100
Ada Rose is a limited filly who has shown her best at this track with a placed effort from two runs here. She steps up in trip again having been placed without winning over today's distance last time and that looks the right move on balance. Kevin Philippart De Foy and Jack Mitchell both operate at a solid level around here though the yard's recent form is quiet. The trainer's 19% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 200 runs and the jockey's 17% from 1031 rides are both useful. She has been competitive on standard ground without winning. The KTB Fit score of 50 leaves her with place claims at best.
Last Flight KTB Fit 50/100
Last Flight has shown little in three starts to date and looks limited on what he has produced. The step up to 1m4f is a fresh question having last run over 1m2f. James Ferguson has a solid 22% strike rate here from 130 runs while Liam Wright is operating at a modest 8% from 86 rides. Dropping in class may help but the overall profile remains modest. The KTB Fit score of 50 reflects a horse with plenty to find. No course form on record adds to the unknowns on standard ground.
Al Amirah KTB Fit 49/100
Al Amirah has shown only limited ability in six runs and has failed to place in three starts at this track. The yard holds a solid 18% strike rate here from a big sample but the 5lb claimer is operating below par with a 6% record from 71 rides. A stiff 1m4f looks an open question after just one previous try at the trip. Ismail Mohammed's record at Wolverhampton is positive yet the jockey stats are a negative. The KTB Fit score of 49 sums up a filly who struggles to make an impact. Course efforts of fifth, ninth and sixth tell their own story.
The rest of the field
Ethereal CharmKTB Fit 44/100
Ethereal Charm has shown only limited ability in five runs to date and failed to build on a fair seventh on handicap debut when well held at this track last time. The step up to an untested 1m4f asks a fresh question while the yard's record here is modest. The 5lb claimer has a solid strike rate at Wolverhampton but the overall profile remains modest with a KTB Fit of 44.
Risk Averse RebelKTB Fit 43/100
Risk Averse Rebel is limited and largely exposed after nine runs this year and has been placed on four of his last five starts yet remains a maiden. He has shown consistent form around here over this trip on standard ground but has never looked like winning. The yard's poor 2% strike-rate at the track adds to the negatives and the KTB Fit score of 43 reflects a horse who finds winning elusive.
Keep It ClassicKTB Fit 42/100
Keep It Classic is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in seven runs and was well held when sixth at Kempton last time. William Haggas has a solid 21% strike rate at Wolverhampton but Darragh Keenan is operating at just 5% here. Stepping up to an untried 1m4f presents a fresh question while the small-sample going record remains unknown. The KTB Fit of 42 confirms a modest profile.
Panthere NoirKTB Fit 36/100
Panthere Noir has shown modest form at best in 13 runs this year and looks limited at this level. He has failed to place in five runs on the standard surface and could only manage fourth on his one previous visit here. The step up in trip is an unknown and the trainer's modest record at the track adds little confidence. The KTB Fit score of 36 underlines limited appeal.
Lady LaurenKTB Fit 32/100
Lady Lauren is a limited filly who has been placed three times but showed little spark when finishing sixth on her latest start. She steps up markedly in trip today for a yard with a modest record here and a jockey who is even quieter at the track. First run on the all-weather adds to the unknowns. The KTB Fit of 32 marks her down as the lowest rated in the field.
KTB verdict
Bumaan is the KTB Selection. He has shown only limited ability in three starts but the first-time headgear could help him settle better off a wide draw while the drop in class is another plus. Both trainer and jockey have respectable records at Wolverhampton and the step up in trip is at least an interesting new question. Mick The Hat and Ada Rose look the main dangers on the strength of their slightly better course efforts and placed form over the trip, though both carry their own negatives. The race looks an open affair among largely modest types.
KTB Selection Bumaan
This is the narrative read of the 7:15 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start in headgear?
Bumaan is wearing first-time headgear.
How many previous runs has Risk Averse Rebel had this year?
Risk Averse Rebel has had nine runs this year.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Wolverhampton among those represented?
James Ferguson has a 22% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 130 runs.
Which runners are stepping up markedly in trip?
Bumaan, Last Flight, Keep It Classic and Lady Lauren are all stepping up markedly in trip.
How many placed efforts has Ada Rose recorded at Wolverhampton?
Ada Rose has a placed effort from two runs at Wolverhampton.
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