4:00 Ripon
This Class 3 novice stakes over a mile at Ripon features a small but competitive field of seven, with several lightly raced three-year-olds taking each other on under good ground. The KTB Fit ratings point to a tight contest at the top, headed by Eklleem on 55, with Ervani, Ceinture d'Orion and Jetpack Jimmy all within touching distance in the 45-49 bracket. Trainer and jockey combinations at the track add further layers, with William Haggas boasting a 29% strike rate at Ripon from 267 runs and several others holding respectable but less potent records.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo up front with no obvious front-runner dominating. Eklleem from draw 3 and Ervani from draw 5 are likely to track the pace, while Ziggy Bay and others may settle towards the rear. The key question is whether the step up to a mile will expose stamina limitations in those with limited experience at the trip or if the race will be decided by those showing the best early promise and adaptability on the good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Eklleem KTB Selection55/100Eklleem showed fair form when second on debut and fourth last time after a break.
- 2Ervani49/100Ervani has shown fair form in two starts so far, finishing second on debut then fourth next time up, and has already placed at this trip.
- 3Ceinture d'Orion48/100Ceinture d'Orion has shown only modest form in two starts so far with a fourth and sixth on turf.
- 4Jetpack Jimmy45/100Jetpack Jimmy is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
- 5Stolen Kisses44/100Stolen Kisses has only one run on the board and that came when finishing fifth on this trip.
- 6Ziggy Bay43/100Ziggy Bay has shown very little in two starts to date and was well held when sixth on this track last time.
- 7Carnival Of Light42/100Carnival Of Light is a debutant with no racecourse form to assess.
The contenders
Eklleem KTB Fit 55/100
Eklleem has shown fair form with a second on debut and a fourth last time out after a break. He now steps up to 1m for the first time, which asks a fresh question of his stamina and overall ability. William Haggas brings a 29% strike rate at Ripon from 267 runs and teams up with Jason Hart, who has a 14% strike rate at the track from 316 rides. The combination of Haggas's 6/28 record with Hart and an A/E of 1.08 gives solid support, while the horse has placed once from one run on good ground. Stepping up in class adds another test but the profile remains one of the more convincing in the line-up.
Ervani KTB Fit 49/100
Ervani has displayed fair form across two starts, finishing second on debut and fourth next time while already having placed over this trip. The drop in class should suit, though with only two runs and limited data on good ground the profile remains one that needs treating with caution. K R Burke brings a 13% strike rate at Ripon from 444 runs and pairs with Shane Gray, who has an 11% record from 152 rides at the track. Their overall trainer-jockey figures stand at 28/149 with an A/E of 1.11. The combination offers some encouragement but the low-confidence aspects around going and experience keep expectations measured.
Ceinture d'Orion KTB Fit 48/100
Ceinture d'Orion has shown only modest form in two starts on turf, recording a fourth and a sixth. Dropping back to 1m from 1m2f poses a fresh question while the small sample leaves little known about his ideal conditions, including on good ground where he remains unproven. David O'Meara holds a 16% strike rate at Ripon from 774 runs and teams with Mark Winn, who posts a 10% record from 61 rides here. Their trainer-jockey line reads 52/457 with an A/E of 0.94. The modest ability and unknowns on the ground and trip make this a difficult profile to assess with confidence.
Jetpack Jimmy KTB Fit 45/100
Jetpack Jimmy is a debutant with no racecourse form on which to rely. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at Ripon from 49 runs offers limited encouragement for a first-timer at this level. Simon Whitaker and Sean Kirrane combine with a 0/10 record and an A/E of 0.00. By Masar, whose progeny have a 12% win rate overall from 1023 runners, the pedigree will need to be strong to overcome the low data confidence. With no course win on record and stepping into a Class 3 contest, this looks a tough ask on debut.
The rest of the field
Stolen KissesKTB Fit 44/100
Stolen Kisses has only one run to his name, finishing fifth over this trip. Tim Easterby has a 10% strike rate at Ripon from 2364 runs while David Allan posts 13% from 1130 rides here. Stepping up in class and unproven on good ground adds to the caution required with such a small sample.
Ziggy BayKTB Fit 43/100
Ziggy Bay has shown very little in two starts and was well held when sixth over this course last time. Michael Dods operates at a 9% strike rate here from 384 runs and Connor Beasley at 10% from 246 rides. Stepping up to a mile poses a fresh question for a horse with just two runs behind him and stepping up in class.
Carnival Of LightKTB Fit 42/100
Carnival Of Light is a debutant with no racecourse form to assess. By Night Of Thunder, whose progeny hold a 16% win rate from 5070 runners, the pedigree offers the main clue but low data confidence makes conclusions tentative. Charlie Johnston has an 11% strike rate at Ripon from 94 runs while Oliver Stammers is still seeking his first winner from 37 rides here.
KTB verdict
Eklleem stands out as the KTB Selection. He has shown fair form with a second on debut and a fourth last time, and the Haggas yard's strong 29% strike rate at Ripon combined with Hart's solid track record adds significant appeal despite the step up to 1m. The selection has already placed on good ground and the overall profile looks the most polished in a race where several rivals bring modest form or limited experience. Ervani is the most obvious danger having already placed at the trip and dropping in class, while Ceinture d'Orion and the debutants carry more question marks around ability and conditions.
KTB Selection Eklleem
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Eklleem has the highest KTB Fit Score on 55/100.
How many runs has William Haggas had at Ripon and what is his strike rate?
William Haggas has a 29% strike rate at Ripon from 267 runs.
Which horse is dropping in class and has already placed at this trip?
Ervani is dropping in class and has already placed at this trip.
What is the going record for Ceinture d'Orion?
Ceinture d'Orion has no runs on good ground and remains unproven on the surface.
Which jockey is still seeking a first winner at Ripon from 37 rides?
Oliver Stammers is still seeking his first winner at Ripon from 37 rides.
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