2:50 Ripon
A competitive Class 5 handicap over 1m1f170y at Ripon on good ground brings together a field of seven, with the KTB numbers highlighting a group where progressive three-year-olds rub shoulders with seasoned handicappers. What's The Plan tops the KTB Fit ratings on 58 while Qitaal, Saxophonist and Poet's Dawn follow closely, suggesting the principals hold the key. The lightly-raced types bring potential against more exposed runners, and with several dropping in class the race looks likely to be decided by who handles the step up in trip or the track best.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a steadily-run affair with no obvious front-runner, though several hold-up performers mean the race could develop into a sprint for the line from the turn in. What's The Plan and Saxophonist are both likely to be held up off the pace while Qitaal and Poet's Dawn can race handily. The key question is whether the step up in trip for a few of these will play to their strengths or expose stamina limitations on this good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1What's The Plan KTB Selection58/100What's The Plan has shown fair form and looks to have more to come after finishing third in both starts this season.
- 2Qitaal55/100Qitaal is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning of late and arrives here in reasonable form after a second last time out.
- 3Saxophonist50/100Modest performer who has shown consistent form in three runs this year, finishing third on each occasion.
- 4Poet's Dawn48/100Poet's Dawn is a modest 11-year-old with a solid course record here at Ripon including one win from 15 runs.
- 5King Of Fury48/100Modest performer who has been on the go for a while and arrives in ordinary form after a string of modest efforts.
- 6Roc De Fer47/100Modest performer who showed ordinary form when finishing fourth on both starts at maiden level last autumn.
- 7Yermanthere38/100Modest performer who has been below form in two starts this season and was well held when sixth on his only previous visit to Ripon.
The contenders
What's The Plan KTB Fit 58/100
What's The Plan has shown fair form and looks to have more to come after finishing third in both starts this season. He has already placed at today's trip on his only attempt and the yard's solid 18% strike rate at Ripon adds some encouragement. The 7 lb claimer takes the ride on what remains a lightly-raced sort with limited going data. Arron D'Arcy is neutral at the track while the trainer's 18% strike rate from 121 runs here is a positive. The recent form of 104-43 underlines steady progress and with a KTB Fit of 58 he is the one to beat from draw 6.
Qitaal KTB Fit 55/100
Qitaal is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning of late and arrives here in reasonable form after a second last time out. He steps up in trip having won over this distance in the past though his record on good ground shows two placed efforts from ten starts without a victory. The trainer holds an 11% strike rate at Ripon from 94 runs while the jockey is on 10% from 246 rides here. Dropping in class is a positive and the recent form of 747425 shows he remains competitive. With a KTB Fit of 55 from draw 1, Connor Beasley should be able to position him well in what is likely to be a steadily-run race.
Saxophonist KTB Fit 50/100
Saxophonist is a modest performer who has shown consistent form in three runs this year, finishing third on each occasion. He steps up in trip for the first time today having last run over 1m, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has a solid 16% strike rate at Ripon from a large sample while the jockey is operating at 10%. The form of 383-33 reflects his reliability at this level though the longer distance is an unknown on just one previous run on good ground. From draw 2 with a KTB Fit of 50, he should be involved if the trip suits.
Poet's Dawn KTB Fit 48/100
Poet's Dawn is a modest 11-year-old with a solid course record here at Ripon including one win from 15 runs. He has won twice at today's trip though he drops back from 1m2½f last time and holds a steady rather than progressive profile judged on his 491416 recent form. The yard's 10% strike-rate from over 2300 runs at the track is matched by the jockey's 12% from 84 rides while the horse himself is 3-19 on good ground. Dropping in class should help and his course win adds appeal from draw 5 with a KTB Fit of 48.
The rest of the field
King Of FuryKTB Fit 48/100
King Of Fury is a modest performer who has been on the go for a while and arrives in ordinary form after a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip for the first time in a while with no previous success at this distance and his only run on good ground brought a placed effort but no win. The trainer has a 9% strike rate here while the jockey fares better at 14%.
Roc De FerKTB Fit 47/100
Roc De Fer is a modest performer who showed ordinary form when finishing fourth on both starts at maiden level last autumn. He steps up in trip today and that is an unknown for a Prescott juvenile who has only had three runs. The yard has a solid 27% strike rate at Ripon but the jockey is operating below the course average.
YermanthereKTB Fit 38/100
Yermanthere is a modest performer who has been below form in two starts this season and was well held when sixth on his only previous visit to Ripon. He has won once from 12 runs on good ground and steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in one previous attempt at this distance. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track though the yard's 10% strike rate from over 2,000 runs shows they need things to fall right.
KTB verdict
What's The Plan looks the most solid option in a race where several runners have questions to answer. His placed efforts this season, prior experience at the trip and the yard's encouraging record at Ripon all point to him being the one to beat. Qitaal brings consistency and a previous win at the distance while Saxophonist and Poet's Dawn cannot be ruled out if the race falls their way. The selection has the best blend of form, scope and course relevance according to the KTB numbers.
KTB Selection What's The Plan
This is the narrative read of the 2:50 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course winning form at Ripon?
Poet's Dawn has a win from 15 runs at the track.
Who is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Saxophonist and Roc De Fer are both stepping up in trip for the first time today.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Ripon in this field?
Sir Mark Prescott has a 27% strike rate at Ripon from 84 runs.
How many runs has What's The Plan had at this trip?
What's The Plan has had one previous attempt at today's trip on which he placed.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Qitaal, Poet's Dawn and Roc De Fer are all dropping in class.
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