4:41 Lingfield
This Class 5 handicap over 1m2f at Lingfield brings together a field of ten three-year-olds with relatively limited experience and plenty of unknowns regarding trip, ground and course. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Blue Noon on 59, with Tai Hang Pegasus and Alice De Clare both on 57, while the remainder sit between 53 and 34. Overall the numbers point to a competitive heat where progressive types and those dropping in class are likely to hold the key.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed front-runner in the field, the pace shape looks likely to be on the steady side early on before the race develops in earnest from halfway. Blue Noon and Light Dreamer are expected to race prominently from their middle draws, while Oh Yes You Do from stall 1 and Last Verse from stall 2 could also be forward. The key question is whether the leaders can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the hands of those delivered from off the pace in what could become a tactical affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Blue Noon KTB Selection59/100Blue Noon has shown fair form in four runs this year and was placed without winning over today's trip on his third start.
- 2Tai Hang Pegasus57/100Tai Hang Pegasus has shown fair form without progressing in five runs and was well held in two starts this year.
- 3Alice De Clare57/100Modest performer who has improved with racing and arrives in decent form after two wins at this trip.
- 4Last Verse53/100Last Verse has shown steady placed form in three runs at a mile and looks a fair maiden at this level.
- 5Light Dreamer53/100Light Dreamer is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this level, finishing second on his most recent start over 1m.
- 6Windbreaker52/100Modest performer who has shown steady progress in three runs and finished a close third last time out.
- 7Mostaan50/100Modest performer who has shown little promise in three starts to date finishing no better than fifth.
- 8Oh Yes You Do49/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning.
- 9Molo Del Palazzo48/100Fair performer who has shown some promise in three runs this year without landing a blow.
- 10Antiquarian34/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date.
The contenders
Blue Noon KTB Fit 59/100
Blue Noon has shown fair form across his four starts this season and was placed without winning over today's trip on his third outing. He drops back from 1m2½f last time with no clear going preference established from his light career to date. The yard posts a 16% strike rate at Lingfield from 270 runs while Voikhansky has been notably effective with a 33% strike rate from his 21 rides here. Dropping in class looks a positive move and his recent form figures of 4-436 suggest he is competitive at this level. From draw 7 he should be able to secure a decent early position and his placed effort over the trip gives him a solid reference point.
Tai Hang Pegasus KTB Fit 57/100
Tai Hang Pegasus has shown fair form without progressing in five runs and was well held in two starts this year. He steps up to 1m2f for the first time today having failed to get involved on his only previous try at the trip. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Lingfield but the colt needs to improve to be competitive. His recent form figures of 336-47 underline a lack of forward momentum this season. From draw 3 he should be able to track the early pace but the step up in distance remains a significant question mark given his past efforts.
Alice De Clare KTB Fit 57/100
Alice De Clare is a modest performer who has improved with racing and arrives in decent form after two wins at this trip. The yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Lingfield while the jockey is operating below par with a 9% record here. Going suitability remains unknown on the basis of just six career runs. Her recent form figures of 974211 demonstrate clear progress and she has found a way of winning twice over 1m2f already. From draw 5 she is well placed to take a handy early position although the unknown of the good ground adds an element of risk.
Last Verse KTB Fit 53/100
Last Verse has shown steady placed form in three runs at a mile and looks a fair maiden at this level. The step up to 1m2f is an unknown that could suit or expose him. Balding has a 16% strike rate at Lingfield from 202 runs while Hutchinson is operating at 10% from 31 rides here. His form figures of 353- suggest he is consistent without being progressive at shorter trips. Dropping in class is a positive and from draw 2 he should be able to race prominently although the new trip remains the big question.
Light Dreamer KTB Fit 53/100
Light Dreamer is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this level, finishing second on his most recent start over 1m. He steps up in trip to 1m2f today having already tried the distance once without success, which asks a fresh question of his stamina. The yard holds a solid 16% strike rate at Lingfield from 270 runs while the jockey is operating at a 20% strike rate from 41 rides here. His form figures of 2572 underline his reliability in the frame. From draw 6 he should be able to race close to the pace although his previous attempt at the trip was not encouraging.
The rest of the field
WindbreakerKTB Fit 52/100
Windbreaker is a modest performer who has shown steady progress in three runs and finished a close third last time out. Haggas has a solid 21% strike rate at Lingfield from 286 runs while Keenan sits on an 8% strike rate from 84 rides here. Trip looks a fresh question having failed to trouble the judge when tried over this distance before and the going remains an unknown with so few runs on the board.
MostaanKTB Fit 50/100
Mostaan is a modest performer who has shown little promise in three starts to date finishing no better than fifth. Steps up in trip to 1m2f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer strikes at 19% here while jockey is on 13%.
Oh Yes You DoKTB Fit 49/100
Oh Yes You Do is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. Dropping back to 1m2f looks a sensible move after his last run over 1m3½f and he has been placed at today's trip from his one attempt. Trainer's 13% strike rate from 39 runs at Lingfield carries an A/E of 1.02 while jockey Dylan Hogan is operating at 10% from 30 rides here with an A/E of 0.69.
Molo Del PalazzoKTB Fit 48/100
Molo Del Palazzo is a fair performer who has shown some promise in three runs this year without landing a blow. Stepping up to 1m2f for the first time asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 10 is far from ideal. Ralph Beckett has a solid 17% strike rate at Lingfield but apprentice Jack Dace is only 6% from his 18 rides here.
AntiquarianKTB Fit 34/100
Antiquarian is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date. Finished a remote fifth on debut and has been well held in two starts since, including both runs at this trip. The yard know their way around here but the 7lb claimer has barely any track experience to call on.
KTB verdict
Blue Noon is the KTB Selection and sets a fair standard on his placed effort over this trip earlier in the season. He drops in class, has a jockey in excellent form at the track and should be able to race handily from his draw. The selection has shown enough to suggest he can build on his recent efforts now that the trip and grade look suitable. Alice De Clare is the obvious danger having won twice over the trip and arriving in good heart, while Last Verse and Light Dreamer are others who can feature if the step up in distance proves within their compass.
KTB Selection Blue Noon
This is the narrative read of the 4:41 Lingfield. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Lingfield racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent winning form at this trip?
Alice De Clare, who has two wins at 1m2f from her last six starts.
How many principals are dropping in class?
Three principals – Blue Noon, Last Verse and the non-principal Windbreaker, Mostaan, Molo Del Palazzo and Antiquarian.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Lingfield in this race?
Alec Voikhansky with a 33% strike rate from 21 rides.
Who has the highest trainer strike rate at the track among the principals?
James Fanshawe with a 19% strike rate at Lingfield from 166 runs.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time today?
Tai Hang Pegasus and Mostaan are both stepping up to 1m2f for the first time.
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