7:20 Leopardstown
The 7:20 at Leopardstown is the second division of the 1878 At 3Arena Handicap over 1m1f on good ground, featuring a field of 17 that looks modest on overall KTB Fit scores. Staywitherjohnny tops the KTB rankings on a modest 55/100 while the next four principals sit between 51 and 45, underlining the limited quality on show. Recent form across the runners is largely uninspiring, though several hold placed efforts at the track and the race looks open on paper.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo with no obvious front-runner dominating. Several runners, including Queen Aethelflaed, Rockbury Lad and Famous Enough, tend to race prominently or in mid-division, while Staywitherjohnny is likely to come from further back. The key question is whether the race will be won from off the pace or if those racing up with the pace can dictate matters on this good surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Staywitherjohnny KTB Selection55/100
- 2Queen Aethelflaed51/100
- 3Rockbury Lad50/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in his last two starts and looks vulnerable from a wide draw today.
- 4Famous Enough49/100
- 5Deuteronomy45/100Deuteronomy is a limited performer who has won once from five runs at this track.
- 6Medieval Night44/100
- 7Nibras Rainbow43/100Nibras Rainbow is a limited performer who has mixed form this year and often finds a few too good.
- 8Shakita42/100
- 9Real Petite42/100
- 10Desert Of The Sea41/100
- 11Sheamus Seimhiu40/100
- 12Borora Aura40/100
- 13Private Larry38/100
- 14Virgil Tibbs37/100
- 15Sarmiento Power34/100
- 16Crypto Crash32/100
- 17Yquem32/100
The contenders
Staywitherjohnny KTB Fit 55/100
Staywitherjohnny is the KTB selection with the highest Fit score on 55/100. The four-year-old has recent form figures of 9-6395 and is drawn in stall 15. Ciaran Murphy's runner has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.5 from 63 runs while Shane Foley has an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.91 from 994 rides. He has had one run on good ground without placing and has finished fifth and sixth from two previous starts at the course without winning. The market reads 7/1 in a field of 17.
Queen Aethelflaed KTB Fit 51/100
Queen Aethelflaed has the second-highest KTB Fit score on 51/100. The four-year-old has recent form figures of 2-8021 and is drawn in stall 12. Andrew Slattery and Orla Tynan have combined for a 20% strike rate with an A/E of 2.00 and positive LSP of +£68.33, though the trainer's record at Leopardstown is a modest 6% strike rate with an A/E of 0.75 from 190 runs and the jockey is yet to score from four rides here. She has had three runs on good ground without placing and finished third on her sole course visit. The market reads 11/4 in a field of 17.
Rockbury Lad KTB Fit 50/100
Rockbury Lad has a KTB Fit score of 50/100. The seven-year-old has recent form figures of -92300 and is drawn in stall 11. M D O'Callaghan and Jamie Powell both have an 8% strike rate at Leopardstown with A/E figures of 0.73 and 0.92 respectively. He holds two wins from 17 starts on good ground with five placed efforts and has placed on five occasions from nine runs at the track without winning, including a win over this trip in the past. His last two starts have shown little spark and he looks vulnerable from his wide draw today.
Famous Enough KTB Fit 49/100
Famous Enough has a KTB Fit score of 49/100. The six-year-old has recent form figures of 16-020 and is drawn in stall 6. Patrick T Foley has an 8% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.89 from 25 runs while Rory Mulligan has a 10% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.35 from 30 rides. He holds one win from eight starts on good ground with two placed efforts and has one placed effort from three runs at the course without winning. The market reads 8/1 in a field of 17.
Deuteronomy KTB Fit 45/100
Deuteronomy has a KTB Fit score of 45/100. The seven-year-old has recent form figures of 008810 and is drawn in stall 2. R P Burns and Nicola Burns have a 12% strike rate together with an A/E of 1.56 and positive LSP of +£17.00, though the trainer's record at Leopardstown is a modest 3% strike rate with an A/E of 0.38 from 35 runs and the jockey is on 3% with an A/E of 0.33 from 30 rides. He has won once from five runs at the track, holds a win at this distance from nine attempts and steps back in trip having last run over a mile and a half. His recent form is modest.
The rest of the field
Medieval NightKTB Fit 44/100
Medieval Night has a KTB Fit score of 44/100. The four-year-old has recent form figures of 8-0808, is drawn in stall 5 and runs in first-time headgear. Denis Gerard Hogan has a 6% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.74 from 280 runs while J M Sheridan has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.87 from 162 rides. He has been placed once from two starts on good ground without winning and has one placed effort from two runs at the course.
Nibras RainbowKTB Fit 43/100
Nibras Rainbow has a KTB Fit score of 43/100. The six-year-old has recent form figures of 936013 and is drawn in stall 7. Paul W Flynn and Leigh Roche both have a 5% strike rate at Leopardstown with A/E figures of 0.77 and 0.6 respectively. He is a limited performer with mixed form this year who often finds a few too good, has placed once from two runs at the track and has placed at this trip without winning while holding one win from eight starts on good ground.
ShakitaKTB Fit 42/100
Shakita has a KTB Fit score of 42/100. The four-year-old has recent form figures of 8988-0 and is drawn in stall 3. Thomas Mullins has an 8% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.99 from 441 runs while Jack Cleary has a 10% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.92 from 69 rides. She has had three runs on good ground without winning or placing and has shown no win or place from two starts at the course.
Real PetiteKTB Fit 42/100
Real Petite has a KTB Fit score of 42/100. The four-year-old has recent form figures of 90-016 and is drawn in stall 1. Thomas Mullins has an 8% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.99 from 441 runs while Jimmy Dalton has a 0% strike rate here with an A/E of 0 from eight rides. She has had two runs on good ground without winning or placing and finished 19th on her sole course visit.
Desert Of The SeaKTB Fit 41/100
Desert Of The Sea has a KTB Fit score of 41/100. The five-year-old has recent form figures of 4-2327 and is drawn in stall 9. T G McCourt has a 5% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.76 from 432 runs while Sadhbh Tormey has a 17% strike rate here with an A/E of 3.5 from six rides. He has been placed once from three starts on good ground without winning and has no course form on record.
Sheamus SeimhiuKTB Fit 40/100
Sheamus Seimhiu has a KTB Fit score of 40/100. The four-year-old has recent form figures of 00860- and is drawn in stall 8. Chris Timmons has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0 from 33 runs while Gary Carroll has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.86 from 618 rides. He has had two runs on good ground without winning or placing and finished 18th on his sole course visit.
Borora AuraKTB Fit 40/100
Borora Aura has a KTB Fit score of 40/100. The three-year-old has recent form figures of 7936 and is drawn in stall 10. Michael Mulvany has a 6% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.8 from 181 runs while Wesley Joyce has a 5% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.85 from 61 rides. He has no runs on good ground and therefore remains unproven on the surface with no course form on record.
Private LarryKTB Fit 38/100
Private Larry has a KTB Fit score of 38/100. The three-year-old has recent form figures of 0-0008 and is drawn in stall 16. Alan McIntyre has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0 from seven runs while Gavin Ryan has a 6% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.63 from 267 rides. He has no runs on good ground and therefore remains unproven on the surface with no course form on record.
Virgil TibbsKTB Fit 37/100
Virgil Tibbs has a KTB Fit score of 37/100. The three-year-old has recent form figures of 67870- and is drawn in stall 4. John C McConnell has a 4% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.77 from 338 runs while Donagh O'Connor has a 4% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.59 from 145 rides. He has had two runs on good ground without winning or placing and has no course form on record.
Sarmiento PowerKTB Fit 34/100
Sarmiento Power has a KTB Fit score of 34/100. The five-year-old has recent form figures of -58000 and is drawn in stall 14. Matthew J Smith has a 5% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.51 from 83 runs while Robbie Colgan has a 4% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.66 from 410 rides. He has had two runs on good ground without winning or placing and has no course form on record.
Crypto CrashKTB Fit 32/100
Crypto Crash has a KTB Fit score of 32/100. The five-year-old has recent form figures of 60409- and is drawn in stall 13. David Kenneth Budds has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0 from 11 runs while Declan McDonogh has a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.73 from 1488 rides. He has been placed once from ten starts on good ground without winning and has three placed efforts from four runs at the course.
YquemKTB Fit 32/100
Yquem has a KTB Fit score of 32/100. The four-year-old has recent form figures of 9-3589 and is drawn in stall 17. Richard Brabazon has a 9% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.77 from 65 runs while Chris Hayes has an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.78 from 1197 rides. He has had four runs on good ground without winning or placing and has no course form on record.
KTB verdict
Staywitherjohnny is the KTB Selection. He tops the Fit rankings in a modest race and brings course experience along with the highest trainer A/E at the track among the principals. His recent efforts suggest he can be competitive in a race of this nature from stall 15. The main dangers are Queen Aethelflaed, who arrives in form and has already shown ability at the track, and Rockbury Lad, who has placed several times here despite looking vulnerable from his wide draw. Famous Enough and Deuteronomy add further depth but look held on the balance of KTB numbers.
KTB Selection Staywitherjohnny
This is the narrative read of the 7:20 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best trainer record at Leopardstown among the principals?
Staywitherjohnny, whose trainer Ciaran Murphy has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.5 from 63 runs.
How many wins has Deuteronomy recorded at this track?
Deuteronomy has won once from five runs at this track.
Which runner is making its debut in headgear?
Medieval Night is running in first-time headgear.
Which horse is completely unproven on good ground?
Borora Aura and Private Larry both have no runs on good ground and are therefore unproven on the surface.
Who has the strongest jockey course record among the principals?
Shane Foley has an 11% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.91 from 994 rides.
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