2:05 Yarmouth
This Class 4 EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f at Yarmouth on good to firm ground features a field of ten two-year-olds, the majority of whom are making their racecourse debuts. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the Charlie Appleby newcomer Dannahue heading the numbers on 57. Trainer strike rates at the track are respectable across several yards, yet the lack of previous form for most runners means pedigree, sales prices and stable confidence will carry significant weight in shaping expectations.
How the race shapes up
With so many debutants and only two previous runners in the field, the early pace shape is difficult to pin down with certainty. The run-styles suggest a handful of forward-going types could contest the lead, including those drawn low such as Downonmainstreet from stall 2 and Musical Force from stall 1, while Yumuri and Attack Attack are likely to come from further back. The key question is whether the race develops into a true test or a sprint finish, and which of the unexposed newcomers can show the requisite speed and composure on their first run.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Dannahue KTB Selection57/100Dannahue is a newcomer from the powerful Charlie Appleby yard which has a 30% strike rate at Yarmouth from 115 runs.
- 2Blue Flight51/100Blue Flight is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a steady 15% strike rate at Yarmouth.
- 3Tansy Lane51/100Tansy Lane is a newcomer from a yard that has been in excellent form and holds a solid 19% strike rate at Yarmouth from 64 runs.
- 4Faith In Florence48/100Ed Walker has a solid 19% strike rate at Yarmouth from 158 runs and sends this newcomer out on debut.
- 5Downonmainstreet48/100Downonmainstreet is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a steady 15% strike rate at Yarmouth.
- 6Yumuri47/100Yumuri showed some promise when fifth on debut over this trip.
- 7Enamored47/100Enamored is a debutant so the assessment rests on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record with juveniles.
- 8Musical Force44/100Musical Force is a debutant with very limited data to go on.
- 9Spirit Tango43/100Spirit Tango is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 14% strike rate at Yarmouth from 76 runs.
- 10Attack Attack41/100Attack Attack has only one run behind him and showed little at this trip on debut.
The contenders
Dannahue KTB Fit 57/100
Dannahue heads the KTB Fit ratings on 57 and is the clear selection. A 240,000gns yearling by Space Blues out of a mare who has already produced several winners including the useful Dhabab, this newcomer represents the powerful Charlie Appleby yard which boasts a 30% strike rate at Yarmouth from 115 runs. Connor Planas takes the mount and himself holds a 20% strike rate at the track from 35 rides, though with low data confidence this debut effort remains something of an unknown. The yard's overall trainer-jockey combination reads 6/20 with an A/E of 1.11 and positive LSP of +£18.86. Everything about the profile suggests strong stable expectation on good to firm ground.
Blue Flight KTB Fit 51/100
Blue Flight is rated second on KTB Fit with a score of 51. This newcomer from the James Fanshawe stable, which operates at a steady 15% strike rate at Yarmouth from 586 runs, brings sales and pedigree background as the main clues given the complete absence of racecourse form. Daniel Muscutt is a solid booking with a 12% strike rate at the track from 324 rides. The yard's trainer-jockey record stands at 153/1028 with an A/E of 0.83. By Blue Point, whose progeny have a 13% win rate overall, this remains a low-confidence debutant profile that will rely heavily on what the market reveals.
Tansy Lane KTB Fit 51/100
Tansy Lane matches Blue Flight on KTB Fit at 51 and represents a yard in excellent form. James Owen holds a 19% strike rate at Yarmouth from 64 runs, while the booking of Silvestre De Sousa is a positive with that jockey also striking at 19% here from 461 rides. As a newcomer by Palace Pier, whose overall win rate is 12%, the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background with no racecourse form available. The trainer-jockey combination shows 8/67 with an A/E of 0.73. Everything points to a filly who could generate plenty of market interest on good to firm ground.
Faith In Florence KTB Fit 48/100
Faith In Florence is next on the KTB Fit ratings with a mark of 48. Ed Walker has a solid 19% strike rate at Yarmouth from 158 runs and sends this Mehmas filly out on debut. George Downing takes the ride but is less prolific at the track with an 8% strike rate from 38 rides. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence, the assessment rests entirely on the sales and pedigree background. The trainer-jockey record reads 18/187 with an A/E of 0.70. By a sire with a 12% win rate overall, she is one of the more interesting debutants but carries the usual first-run uncertainties.
Downonmainstreet KTB Fit 48/100
Downonmainstreet completes the principals with a KTB Fit score of 48. This newcomer from Michael Bell's yard, which has a steady 15% strike rate at Yarmouth from 859 runs, fetched 40,000 guineas as a yearling. By No Nay Never out of a mare who has produced several winners though none at this trip, the profile is best viewed as an educational run with low data confidence. Ross Coakley rides and the pair have a 0/7 record together so far. The jockey's own Yarmouth strike rate is 9% from 47 rides with an A/E of 0.75. Drawn low, this filly may be asked to show early pace.
The rest of the field
YumuriKTB Fit 47/100
Yumuri showed some promise when fifth on debut over this trip and is dropping in class. The James Ferguson yard has a 13% strike rate at Yarmouth while Jack Mitchell operates above expectations with a 17% record here, but expectations should be kept modest as everything else is based on a single run and the filly is unproven on good to firm ground.
EnamoredKTB Fit 47/100
Enamored is a debutant so the assessment rests on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record with juveniles. Ed Dunlop has an 11% strike rate from 570 runs at Yarmouth while Marco Ghiani posts a 13% strike rate from 224 rides at the track, but with low data confidence any firm conclusions are impossible at this stage.
Musical ForceKTB Fit 44/100
Musical Force is a debutant with very limited data to go on. The Harry Eustace yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Yarmouth from 88 runs while Benoit De La Sayette has an 11% record from 142 rides here, so pedigree and sales background will carry most of the weight on good to firm ground.
Spirit TangoKTB Fit 43/100
Spirit Tango is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 14% strike rate at Yarmouth from 76 runs. The Ralph Beckett trainee has no racecourse experience and the jockey has only one ride at the track with a 0% strike rate, so pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment here.
Attack AttackKTB Fit 41/100
Attack Attack has only one run behind him and showed little at this trip on debut. The George Scott yard posts an 11% strike rate at Yarmouth from 120 runs while Liam Wright is operating at 7% from 29 rides here, and with such a thin record everything has to be taken on trust.
KTB verdict
Dannahue stands out as the KTB Selection. The powerful Appleby yard's 30% strike rate at Yarmouth, allied to an expensive sales tag and a dam who has already produced winners including the useful Dhabab, gives this newcomer a strong profile on debut. Connor Planas is a reliable rider at the track and the combination carries positive figures. The main dangers are likely to come from the other well-bred debutants, particularly Tansy Lane with the yard in excellent form and Silvestre De Sousa aboard, and Faith In Florence who represents another yard with a strong Yarmouth record. Blue Flight and Downonmainstreet round out the principals who could improve past those with limited experience such as Yumuri.
KTB Selection Dannahue
This is the narrative read of the 2:05 Yarmouth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Yarmouth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Yarmouth in this race?
Charlie Appleby with a 30% strike rate at Yarmouth from 115 runs.
How many of these runners have previous racecourse experience?
Two runners have previous experience: Yumuri who finished fifth on debut and Attack Attack who showed little on his only start.
Which sire in this field has the highest number of runners with a recorded win rate?
Mehmas with a 12% overall win rate from 7523 runners.
What is the course record for Silvestre De Sousa at Yarmouth?
19% strike rate at Yarmouth from 461 rides with an A/E of 1.03.
Which horse is dropping in class for this contest?
Yumuri is dropping in class.
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