6:20 Leopardstown
This 1m rated race at Leopardstown on good ground brings together nine three-year-olds, several of whom arrive in decent nick. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Halon Bay heading the numbers on 61, followed by Shaftesbury Avenue on 57, God Of Power on 55 and Red Autumn on 51. Course form is limited for most of the field, though the selection has already tasted success here, and the race looks open with several lightly raced types still open to improvement.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo with no obvious front-runner dominating. Several runners, including Shaftesbury Avenue, God Of Power and Red Autumn, have shown the ability to race prominently or in the first half of the field, while Halon Bay and Krasimir are more likely to come from mid-division. The key question is whether the step up to 1m will expose stamina limitations in those who have thrived over shorter, or whether the prominent types can dictate matters and fend off late challengers from wider draws.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Halon Bay KTB Selection61/100Halon Bay showed fair form when winning here over 7f on good ground last time and that success from one run at the track is a plus.
- 2Shaftesbury Avenue57/100Shaftesbury Avenue has shown fair form in three runs and already has a win at this trip to his name.
- 3God Of Power55/100God Of Power is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including a win and a second from his last two starts.
- 4Red Autumn51/100Red Autumn is a fair 3 year old with consistent placed form this year yet has failed to land a blow in three runs at Leopardstown.
- 5Krasimir51/100Krasimir has shown consistent form, finishing in the first three in all four starts including when runner-up on return at Naas.
- 6Sir Benji47/100Sir Benji showed fair form when winning on debut before finishing third next time up.
- 7Golddream45/100Golddream is a fair 3-year-old who showed useful improvement when winning a 1m maiden on his second start before finishing a respectable third over 1m2.5f last…
- 8Glitter And Glory42/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency this year with a win and two placed efforts from five starts.
- 9Johnny Soda38/100Johnny Soda is a fair 3 year old who has shown his best form when winning over this trip earlier in the season.
The contenders
Halon Bay KTB Fit 61/100
Halon Bay showed fair form when winning here over 7f on good ground last time and that success from one run at the track is a plus. He steps up to 1m today which asks a fresh question and his sole previous try at the trip brought no joy. The trainer holds a 10% strike rate from 63 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey is operating at 7% from 362 rides here. Ben Coen takes the ride on the three-year-old who has recent form figures of 841. With a KTB Fit Score of 61 he tops the numbers in a race where his course win carries extra weight.
Shaftesbury Avenue KTB Fit 57/100
Shaftesbury Avenue has shown fair form in three runs and already has a win at this trip to his name. The yard's 20% strike rate from almost 3000 runs at Leopardstown is solid though the A/E of 0.88 suggests they are slightly underperforming here, while apprentice Jack Cleary has a respectable 10% record from 69 rides at the track. First-time headgear is now added to a horse who remains lightly raced on ground that cannot be properly judged from such a small sample. His recent form reads 316 and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 57. From draw 4 he looks sure to be involved in the early action.
God Of Power KTB Fit 55/100
God Of Power is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including a win and a second from his last two starts. He has placed once in three runs at this trip though he is yet to win over it and the lightly-raced profile means his effectiveness on good ground remains untested. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at Leopardstown with the trainer on 6% from 190 runs and the jockey on 7% from 177 rides here. Recent form figures stand at 49-12 and he is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 55. Drawn low in stall 2, he should be able to secure a good early position.
Red Autumn KTB Fit 51/100
Red Autumn is a fair 3 year old with consistent placed form this year yet has failed to land a blow in three runs at Leopardstown. He drops back to a trip where he is 1 from 4 and has won on this good ground, both positives in a race where his yard fires at a solid 17% strike rate. The jockey's 8% record at the track is more modest. His form reads 525-44 and the KTB Fit Score is 51. From draw 3 he is another who should be handy in the early stages under Chris Hayes.
The rest of the field
KrasimirKTB Fit 51/100
Krasimir has shown consistent form, finishing in the first three in all four starts including when runner-up on return at Naas. He steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has an 11% strike rate from 1164 runs at Leopardstown while jockey Gary Carroll is 7% from 618 rides here. His recent form is 323-2 and the KTB Fit Score is 51.
Sir BenjiKTB Fit 47/100
Sir Benji showed fair form when winning on debut before finishing third next time up. He drops back to an untried 1m today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Leopardstown while Whearty is operating at just 2% here from 85 rides. Recent form figures are 13 and the KTB Fit Score stands at 47.
GolddreamKTB Fit 45/100
Golddream is a fair 3-year-old who showed useful improvement when winning a 1m maiden on his second start before finishing a respectable third over 1m2.5f last time. He drops back to a trip he has already won over from stall 7, though the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Leopardstown offers little encouragement. Jockey Robbie Colgan is also operating at a 4% strike rate here from 410 rides. Form is 613 and the KTB Fit Score is 45.
Glitter And GloryKTB Fit 42/100
Modest performer who has shown some consistency this year with a win and two placed efforts from five starts. Steps up to 1m for the first time having been placed both previous runs at the trip though his latest effort was over 7f. Has run just once here when well held and the yard and jockey both have modest records at Leopardstown. Recent form is 33-215 with a KTB Fit Score of 42.
Johnny SodaKTB Fit 38/100
Johnny Soda is a fair 3 year old who has shown his best form when winning over this trip earlier in the season. He ran respectably over 1m1f last time but drops back to 1m from stall 1 today, a move that should suit. The yard's modest record here and his lack of experience on good ground add some uncertainty. Form reads -03157 and the KTB Fit Score is 38.
KTB verdict
Halon Bay is the KTB Selection. He showed fair form when winning here over 7f on good ground last time and that success from one run at the track is a plus, even if the step up to 1m asks a fresh question after his previous effort at the trip brought no joy. The combination of course form, a recent win on the going and a KTB Fit Score that leads the field gives him the strongest profile. Main dangers are Shaftesbury Avenue, who brings a win at the trip and first-time headgear, and God Of Power, who arrives in good heart with solid recent form, while Red Autumn is consistent and suited by the drop back in distance and the ground.
KTB Selection Halon Bay
This is the narrative read of the 6:20 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won at Leopardstown?
Halon Bay won here over 7f on good ground last time out from one run at the track.
Who is wearing first-time headgear?
Shaftesbury Avenue is fitted with first-time headgear.
Which runners have previous winning form at this 1m trip?
Shaftesbury Avenue, Golddream and Johnny Soda have all won over 1m previously.
How does the trainer of the selection fare at Leopardstown?
Ciaran Murphy has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.5 from 63 runs.
Which horse is unproven on good ground?
Johnny Soda has had no runs on good ground.
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