7:50 Epsom Downs
This Class 4 handicap over 6f at Epsom Downs brings together eight runners on good to firm ground, with the KTB Fit Scores tightly bunched between 63 and 38. The principals are headed by Rage Of Thunder on 63, followed closely by King Of Chaos on 61, Aberama Gold on 60 and Ancient Times on 58, suggesting a competitive renewal where recent form, course knowledge and trainer-jockey combinations at the track will be key. Overall the numbers point to a race that could be decided by how the pace unfolds and which horse handles the demands of Epsom best.
How the race shapes up
With several runners showing a preference for racing prominently or in mid-division, the pace shape looks likely to be on the steady side early on before quickening in the straight. Rage Of Thunder and Balon D'or are among those who can take a keen hold or race up with the pace from low draws, while others such as Ancient Times may come from further back. The key question is whether the leaders can get away with it or if the race will be won from off the pace, particularly given the undulations at Epsom.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Rage Of Thunder KTB Selection63/100Rage Of Thunder is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after a recent win and has two wins from five runs on good to firm ground.
- 2King Of Chaos61/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best when winning a handicap over this trip at Windsor last time.
- 3Aberama Gold60/100Fair sort who has won four times at this trip but has been out of sorts for much of this year and only beat a couple of rivals when sixth last time.
- 4Ancient Times58/100Ancient Times is a modest 8-year-old who has won at this track and over today's trip.
- 5Acclaimed Freedom58/100Modest performer who has shown some spark at this trip, finishing placed once in three attempts without winning.
- 6Balon D'or48/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 7Twirler45/100Modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just two visits.
- 8Harry Brown38/100Harry Brown is a limited performer who has been busy this year and showed mixed form in recent starts over 5f.
The contenders
Rage Of Thunder KTB Fit 63/100
Rage Of Thunder is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after a recent win and has two wins from five runs on good to firm ground. He has scored at today's 6f trip and the yard and jockey both hold a 15% strike rate at Epsom. The first run at the track is neutral given the high data confidence from ratings and race history. From draw 3 he should be able to race prominently in a race where his ability stands out among the principals. The trainer-jockey combination brings a combined record that reads favourably at this venue, and his recent form of 2-0051 underlines that he is on an upward curve. Stepping up in class is the only slight concern but his overall profile makes him the one to beat.
King Of Chaos KTB Fit 61/100
King Of Chaos is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best when winning a handicap over this trip at Windsor last time. He has never placed on good to firm ground from three attempts and makes his first start at Epsom. Trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate here from 28 runs while the jockey is operating at 16% from 75 rides. His recent form of 597731 demonstrates that he can produce a big effort when it matters, though the going remains a question mark. From draw 5 he should be able to get a nice position early, and the yard's record at the track adds some confidence. Stepping up in class adds another layer but he remains a live contender on his best form.
Aberama Gold KTB Fit 60/100
Aberama Gold is a fair sort who has won four times at this trip but has been out of sorts for much of this year and only beat a couple of rivals when sixth last time. First run at Epsom for a yard with a solid 12% strike-rate here from 139 attempts. Goes well on good to firm but overall profile suggests he will need to improve to be competitive from stall 4. His recent form of 416035 shows flashes of ability but also inconsistency, and at the age of nine he may find it harder to bounce back quickly. The trainer and jockey figures at the track are respectable if not outstanding, and his two wins from five on good to firm keep him in the picture on that front alone.
Ancient Times KTB Fit 58/100
Ancient Times is a modest 8-year-old who has won at this track and over today's trip. He has three wins from 13 runs on good to firm and the yard and jockey both have solid strike rates at Epsom. Recent form of 0600-0 is poor though and he has been beaten a long way on his only start this year. From draw 7 he may have to come from off the pace, but his course win gives him a clear foothold in the race. The trainer's 15% strike rate and the jockey's 22% at the venue are notable positives, and his going record of three wins from 13 on good to firm suggests conditions should suit. Stepping up in class is a concern given his modest recent efforts.
The rest of the field
Acclaimed FreedomKTB Fit 58/100
Acclaimed Freedom is a modest performer who has shown some spark at this trip, finishing placed once in three attempts without winning. Recent form of 1-8624 suggests consistency at this level but lacks a standout effort. Trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Epsom from 26 runs while jockey is operating at 13% from 160 rides here. Stepping up in class from draw 8 adds to the task.
Balon D'orKTB Fit 48/100
Balon D'or is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. Has placed once from a single run at Epsom and is competitive on good to firm ground though he is yet to win on it. Trainer has a solid 10 percent strike rate here while the jockey is operating above expectations at the track. Recent form of 06-764 offers little encouragement.
TwirlerKTB Fit 45/100
Twirler is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just two visits. Recent form is mixed with a win and a second in the last six runs but the yard and jockey both have modest strike rates here. Going form is adequate but nothing special on good to firm. From draw 6 he has a chance to utilise his course knowledge.
Harry BrownKTB Fit 38/100
Harry Brown is a limited performer who has been busy this year and showed mixed form in recent starts over 5f. He steps up to 6f today where he has won four times from 15 attempts yet his trainer has failed to land a winner from 31 runs at Epsom. The 5 lb claimer has a respectable 13 per cent strike rate here from a small sample. Recent form of 691420 highlights his limitations at this level.
KTB verdict
Rage Of Thunder stands out as the KTB Selection on a Fit Score of 63 and with the strongest blend of recent form and venue data. His win last time, two wins from five on good to firm and the 15% strike rates for both trainer and jockey at Epsom give him a clear edge. King Of Chaos and Aberama Gold are the most obvious dangers if they can reproduce their better efforts, while Ancient Times cannot be entirely dismissed on his course record despite poor recent form.
KTB Selection Rage Of Thunder
This is the narrative read of the 7:50 Epsom Downs. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom Downs racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course winning form at Epsom Downs?
Ancient Times has won here from two starts and Twirler has also won here from two visits.
How many wins has Rage Of Thunder recorded on good to firm ground?
Rage Of Thunder has two wins from five runs on good to firm.
Which trainers hold the highest strike rate at Epsom Downs in this field?
Gary & Josh Moore, Harry Eustace and George Scott all have a 15% strike rate at Epsom Downs.
Has any horse in the race won over the 6f trip before?
Rage Of Thunder, King Of Chaos, Aberama Gold and Twirler have all won over this 6f trip.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Epsom Downs among the riders in this race?
Callum Hutchinson has a 22% strike rate at Epsom Downs from 18 rides.
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