4:30 Doncaster
This Class 6 handicap at Doncaster over an extended mile brings together a field of seven modest performers on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit ratings identify Kiss Me My Love as the top-rated on 58, with Okiru, Myrrh and The Anthony Gover closely grouped behind on 49 and 47. Dropping in class looks a positive for a couple of these, while several hold placed form at the track and the trip has produced wins or near-misses for most.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo with no obvious front-runner dominating. Kiss Me My Love from draw three and The Anthony Gover from two are likely to track the pace, while Celtic Chariot in stall one could be prominent early. Okiru, Myrrh and Norcross Brow tend to come from off the pace, posing the key question of whether the race will be run to suit those with a turn of foot or those who can get a nice position from the lower draws.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Kiss Me My Love KTB Selection58/100Modest performer who has won once at today's trip from six attempts and has placed twice from six runs on good to firm ground.
- 2Okiru49/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning in 11 starts.
- 3Myrrh47/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing third here on debut.
- 4The Anthony Gover47/100Modest performer who has shown only minor promise in five starts to date.
- 5Celtic Chariot45/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on his three starts this year without threatening to win.
- 6Princess Niyla39/100Modest performer who has been placed on both visits to this track without winning.
- 7Norcross Brow35/100Modest performer who has shown enough placed efforts at this trip to suggest he can be competitive in a Class 6.
The contenders
Kiss Me My Love KTB Fit 58/100
Kiss Me My Love is a modest performer who has won once at today's trip from six attempts and has placed twice from six runs on good to firm ground. Her recent form of 045219 includes a win two starts back but also contains several lesser efforts. The yard posts a 13% strike rate at Doncaster from 164 runs, and this will be her first run at the track. Joanna Mason, who has an 8% strike rate at Doncaster from 124 rides, takes the mount as the horse drops in class. The selection has the ability to be competitive in this field and the KTB Fit rating of 58 underlines her position at the head of the ratings.
Okiru KTB Fit 49/100
Okiru is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning in 11 starts. He has placed once from two runs on good to firm and steps up in trip again today having failed to land a blow at this distance on both previous attempts. Archie Watson has a solid 12% strike rate at Doncaster from 93 runs, though Harry Vigors is still seeking a first course winner from eight rides. Recent form of 56U572 shows steady rather than sparkling efforts. With a KTB Fit of 49 he is the second-highest rated and should be in the mix if the step back up in trip suits.
Myrrh KTB Fit 47/100
Myrrh is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing third here on debut. She drops back in trip having last run over 1m2f and is two from two when raced at this distance without winning. David O'Meara has a 9% strike rate from 802 runs at Doncaster while Daniel Tudhope operates at 13% from 582 rides here. Recent form reads 3-3468 and she has been placed on both starts on good to firm. The KTB Fit of 47 keeps her in the conversation, particularly with the course placed form on her side.
The Anthony Gover KTB Fit 47/100
The Anthony Gover is a modest performer who has shown only minor promise in five starts to date. Recent efforts have been lacklustre and he now steps back up in trip having failed to make an impact at this distance twice before. Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole hold a 14% strike rate at Doncaster from a small sample of 22 runs, while Rowan Scott has a 10% strike rate from 170 rides at the track. He drops in class today. With a KTB Fit of 47 he remains hard to fancy on what he has shown so far.
The rest of the field
Celtic ChariotKTB Fit 45/100
Celtic Chariot is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his three starts this year without threatening to win. He finished a creditable third here on his only visit to the track and is well drawn in stall one today. The trip looks about right though the yard's small sample at Doncaster from four runs makes this hard to weigh up with confidence.
Princess NiylaKTB Fit 39/100
Princess Niyla is a modest performer who has been placed on both visits to this track without winning. She drops back in trip today having last run over a mile and a quarter and has won over this distance in the past though her recent form of 365356 is ordinary. The trainer remains winless from 50 runs at Doncaster while the jockey has a solid 10% strike rate from over 500 rides at the course.
Norcross BrowKTB Fit 35/100
Norcross Brow is a modest performer who has shown enough placed efforts at this trip to suggest he can be competitive in a Class 6. Good-to-firm ground clearly suits with a win and a place from just two runs on it. The trainer has only one previous runner at Doncaster so that side remains unknown while jockey Billy Loughnane has a solid 12% strike rate here from 97 rides.
KTB verdict
Kiss Me My Love tops the KTB Fit ratings and is taken as the selection. She has a win at the trip to her name, has placed on good to firm and drops in class, all of which strengthen her claims in a modest event. The yard's record at the track adds further encouragement even though this is her first visit to Doncaster. Main dangers are Okiru, who brings consistency and a good trainer record here, and Myrrh, who has shown placed form at the course and is proven at the distance. The Anthony Gover and the remainder of the field look held on what they have shown so far.
KTB Selection Kiss Me My Love
This is the narrative read of the 4:30 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit rating and what is it?
Kiss Me My Love has the highest KTB Fit rating of 58.
How many times has Kiss Me My Love won at today's trip?
Kiss Me My Love has won once at today's trip from six attempts.
Which horse has course form at Doncaster and what is it?
Myrrh has one run here, finishing third. Celtic Chariot has one run here, finishing third. Princess Niyla has two runs here, finishing second and seventh.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Doncaster among those with meaningful data?
Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole have a 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 22 runs.
What is the going record for Norcross Brow?
Norcross Brow has a win and a place from two runs on good to firm.
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