7:51 Worcester
This Class 5 handicap hurdle at Worcester over 2m4f on good ground brings together a field of ten where the KTB numbers identify a clear top horse. Lacrima heads the Fit rankings on 80 with recent course success and a sensible drop back in trip, while the next four principals sit in the mid-50s to mid-60s and all carry first-time headgear. The race features several runners with Worcester form and others stepping back in distance, creating an interesting mix of class droppers and those returning from breaks.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a truly run race with a mix of prominent racers and hold-up types. Present Fair and Scintillante are likely to be forward while Lacrima can race prominently off a strong recent win. The key question is whether the first-time headgear on several runners, including the selection, will sharpen them sufficiently to make the most of the drop back to 2m4f in a race where those with proven course form could hold an edge.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Lacrima KTB Selection80/100Lacrima is a useful performer who has won over this trip and on this ground.
- 2Present Fair65/100Useful performer who has placed on both starts at Worcester and returns from a break in first-time headgear.
- 3Scintillante59/100Useful performer who has won twice at Worcester from 11 runs and brings solid recent form with a third and a sixth.
- 4Bashful Boy58/100Useful performer who has been a regular at Worcester and finished second here on his only previous visit.
- 5Faded Fantasy53/100Useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 6Harry Gulliver49/100Harry Gulliver is a fair performer who has won at this trip and shown his only good-ground success came from five attempts.
- 7County Champs49/100Useful performer who arrives in decent form after two placed efforts over longer trips.
- 8Boston Savr48/100Useful performer who has been well below form in five runs since joining this yard.
- 9Could Be You47/100Could Be You is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but has failed to complete in three of his last four starts and showed little sp…
- 10Illico De Montave40/100Modest performer who has shown very little in his last three starts and was well held both previous visits to Worcester.
The contenders
Lacrima KTB Fit 80/100
Lacrima is a useful performer who has won over this trip and on this ground. She showed her best form when scoring at Worcester last time and returns to the same track with first-time headgear. The drop back from 2m7f looks a sensible move though the yard's small sample here makes it hard to gauge their local strength. The 5-year-old has recorded a win from three starts on good ground and boasts a course record of one win from two runs. Trainer Nick Scholfield posts a 33% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 5.21 from three runs while jockey Jack Stenhouse has a 50% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 4.11 from two rides.
Present Fair KTB Fit 65/100
Present Fair is a useful performer who has placed on both starts at Worcester and returns from a break in first-time headgear. He drops back to a trip he has won over though he was well held when last seen over further. Trainer Donald McCain holds a solid 13% strike-rate at the track from a big sample of 313 runs with an A/E of 0.81. The 7-year-old has one win from six starts on good ground with three placings and has course form of fifth and third from two visits, showing he can act around the track. Jockey Mr Harry Brown has no record at Worcester.
Scintillante KTB Fit 59/100
Scintillante is a useful performer who has won twice at Worcester from 11 runs and brings solid recent form with a third and a sixth. He steps up to 2m4f for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge on his two previous attempts at the trip. Trainer Alastair Ralph holds a 10% strike rate here from 181 runs with an A/E of 0.72 while Jonathan Burke has an 11% strike rate at Worcester from 204 rides with an A/E of 0.75. The 6-year-old has three wins from 24 starts on good ground with nine placings and is dropping in class.
Bashful Boy KTB Fit 58/100
Bashful Boy is a useful performer who has been a regular at Worcester and finished second here on his only previous visit. He steps up in trip today having won twice at this distance in the past though his recent form is modest and the first-time headgear is an unknown. The yard's solid 14% strike rate at the track from 529 runs with an A/E of 0.85 gives some encouragement. Trainer David Pipe and jockey Rian Corcoran combine with a 28% strike rate and A/E of 1.46 from 71 runs. The 10-year-old has two wins from 19 starts on good ground with four placings.
Faded Fantasy KTB Fit 53/100
Faded Fantasy is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form has been patchy and the yard's modest record here offers little encouragement, while first-time headgear is an unknown on a horse that has looked on the decline. Christian Williams has a 4% strike rate at Worcester from 113 runs with an A/E of 0.5 while Jack Tudor posts a 6% strike rate from 144 rides with an A/E of 0.56. The 7-year-old has four wins from 20 starts on good ground with seven placings and a course record of one win from six runs. He is dropping in class.
The rest of the field
Harry GulliverKTB Fit 49/100
Harry Gulliver is a fair performer who has won at this trip and shown his only good-ground success came from five attempts. He has course experience but could only finish sixth here on his sole visit. The yard posts a solid 15% strike-rate at Worcester from 119 runs with an A/E of 1.19.
County ChampsKTB Fit 49/100
County Champs is a useful performer who arrives in decent form after two placed efforts over longer trips. He drops back to 2m4f today where he is 0-4 and was never a factor on his previous tries at the distance. This is his first run at Worcester for a trainer with no previous runners here.
Boston SavrKTB Fit 48/100
Boston Savr is a useful performer who has been well below form in five runs since joining this yard. He drops back from 3m to 2m4f today having failed to make the frame at the shorter trip on his only previous attempt. First-time headgear is reached for while the yard's modest 8% strike rate at Worcester from 100 runs offers little encouragement.
Could Be YouKTB Fit 47/100
Could Be You is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but has failed to complete in three of his last four starts and showed little spark when last seen. He has been tried over today's trip three times without success and remains lightly raced overall so his effectiveness on good ground is still unknown. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at Worcester from 512 runs.
Illico De MontaveKTB Fit 40/100
Illico De Montave is a modest performer who has shown very little in his last three starts and was well held both previous visits to Worcester. He drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance either and goes in headgear for the first time. The trainer has a modest 9% strike rate here from 54 runs.
KTB verdict
Lacrima stands out as the KTB Selection. She arrives in excellent order after a Worcester success last time, returns to the same venue having already shown she handles the track and the ground, and the first-time headgear combined with a drop back from 2m7f to her winning distance looks an ideal setup. The 80 Fit score sets her apart from the rest of the field. Present Fair and Scintillante are the main dangers, both with solid Worcester form and the benefit of headgear, while Bashful Boy's previous placing here cannot be ignored despite modest recent efforts.
KTB Selection Lacrima
This is the narrative read of the 7:51 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Lacrima has the highest KTB Fit Score on 80.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Six runners are wearing first-time headgear: Lacrima, Present Fair, Bashful Boy, Faded Fantasy, Boston Savr and Illico De Montave.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Worcester in this field?
Nick Scholfield has the strongest strike rate at Worcester on 33% with an A/E of 5.21 from three runs.
Has the selection won over the course and distance before?
Lacrima has won at Worcester and over this trip though not necessarily in the same race.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Scintillante and Faded Fantasy are both dropping in class.
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