5:00 Worcester
This Class 5 handicap chase over 2m4f at Worcester on good ground features a compact field of seven. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with four principals separated by just five points, underlining a competitive contest where recent form, course knowledge and the application of first-time headgear will all play their part. Overall the numbers point to a race that should be decided by which horse handles the pace and conditions most effectively on the day.
How the race shapes up
The race-level pace shape suggests a steady gallop with several runners who like to race prominently or track the pace. Manowest and Aslukgoes are both typically forward-going, while Evening Tess and Captain Boudet can also be ridden handy. This sets up a test where the ability to conserve energy early and quicken at the right moment will be key, with the main question being whether any of the hold-up performers can bridge the gap if the leaders go hard up front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Manowest KTB Selection66/100Useful performer who has won once from four starts at Worcester and arrives in reasonable form after a solid third last time.
- 2Evening Tess64/100Smart performer who arrives in excellent order after two wins from her last three starts.
- 3Captain Boudet62/100Useful performer who has shown consistent placed form and won twice over today's trip.
- 4Aslukgoes61/100Useful performer who has won twice from four starts at Worcester and boasts a solid record on good ground with four wins from eight attempts.
- 5White Riot57/100Useful performer who showed fair form when fourth on return at this track last month.
- 6Mix Of Clover56/100Useful performer who has won twice at Worcester from 24 starts and also has a solid record on good ground with six wins from 32 starts.
- 7Boskill Borden40/100Boskill Borden is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at Worcester, finishing second and third on his last two visits here.
The contenders
Manowest KTB Fit 66/100
Manowest is a useful performer who has won once from four starts at Worcester and arrives in reasonable form after a solid third last time. The 8-year-old is dropping in class and first-time headgear is now added having failed to land the odds at this trip on four previous attempts. Olly Murphy holds a 21% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 0.93 from 140 runs, while Sean Bowen operates at 22% with an A/E of 1.07 from 422 rides at the track. He has a record of 1 win from 8 on good ground with four placed efforts and the trainer-jockey combination brings strong course form. His recent figures of 263-P3 show consistency mixed with the occasional let-down, yet the overall profile suggests he can capitalise on the drop in grade.
Evening Tess KTB Fit 64/100
Evening Tess is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order after two wins from her last three starts, with form figures of 56-221. The 4-year-old is dropping in class, has already won over today's trip and on this ground, and is lightly raced for her ability. Dan Skelton has a 17% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 0.79 from 377 runs, while Harry Skelton posts 20% with an A/E of 0.89 from 370 rides here. She holds a record of 1 win from 3 on good with three placed efforts and has no previous course form to call upon. Her progressive profile and yard strength make her a major player once more.
Captain Boudet KTB Fit 62/100
Captain Boudet is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form and won twice over today's trip. The 7-year-old has a modest Worcester record that includes a recent sixth on his only previous start here and first-time headgear is now fitted after a string of runs that included a pulled-up effort. David Pipe has a 14% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 0.85 from 529 runs, while claiming jockey Rian Corcoran posts a 27% strike rate with an A/E of 1.35 from just 11 rides at the track. He has 1 win from 3 on good ground with one placed effort and his recent form reads 2P32-6. The headgear could sharpen him up at a trip where he has previous success.
Aslukgoes KTB Fit 61/100
Aslukgoes is a useful performer who has won twice from four starts at Worcester and boasts a solid record on good ground with four wins from eight attempts. Recent form is patchy with figures of 476-4U and he has failed to place in four runs at this trip though first-time headgear may help. Mickey Bowen has a 13% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 0.59 from 31 runs, while James Bowen is operating at 22% with an A/E of 1.25 from 151 rides. The 8-year-old is dropping in class and his course record gives him obvious claims if the new headgear brings about improvement.
The rest of the field
White RiotKTB Fit 57/100
White Riot is a useful performer who showed fair form when fourth on return at this track last month. He steps up in trip today having only tried 2m4f once before without success, though the longer distance looks a logical move on pedigree, and both trainer and jockey have solid records at Worcester.
Mix Of CloverKTB Fit 56/100
Mix Of Clover is a useful performer who has won twice at Worcester from 24 starts and also has a solid record on good ground with six wins from 32 starts. He drops back in trip today having last run over further and now tries headgear for the first time, with the trainer on a 10% strike rate here from 181 runs and the jockey at 4% from 28 rides.
Boskill BordenKTB Fit 40/100
Boskill Borden is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at Worcester, finishing second and third on his last two visits here. He has been competitive on good ground and at this trip without winning, though his recent efforts have been moderate, and first-time headgear is now applied.
KTB verdict
Manowest is the KTB Selection. He brings strong course form to the table, having already won here from four starts, and the drop in class allied to first-time headgear looks a positive move for an 8-year-old who showed his wellbeing with a solid third last time. Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen both hold strong records at Worcester which adds further layers to his claims. Evening Tess is the obvious danger given her excellent recent order and progressive profile, while Captain Boudet and Aslukgoes cannot be dismissed with their own course knowledge and the possible benefits of first-time headgear.
KTB Selection Manowest
This is the narrative read of the 5:00 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best Worcester course record among the principals?
Manowest and Aslukgoes have each won twice at the track, with Manowest successful once from four starts and Aslukgoes twice from four.
How many of the runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are wearing first-time headgear: Manowest, Captain Boudet, Aslukgoes and Mix Of Clover. Boskill Borden is also in first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Worcester in this field?
Olly Murphy has a 21% strike rate at Worcester from 140 runs.
Who holds the highest jockey strike rate at Worcester among those riding today?
Rian Corcoran has a 27% strike rate at Worcester from 11 rides.
Which horse has won the most times on good ground?
Mix Of Clover has six wins from 32 starts on good ground, while Aslukgoes has four wins from eight.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies