2:41 Perth
This Class 4 Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Handicap Chase over 2m at Perth on good ground brings together a compact but competitive field of six. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 61 and 52, underlining how little separates the principals on current ratings. Three of the top four are dropping in class while all six runners sport first-time headgear, adding an extra layer of unpredictability to a race that features several course regulars.
How the race shapes up
With a pace shape that suggests a truly-run affair, the race is likely to be contested at a strong gallop from the outset. Conquer The Breeze and Tree Top Tyson are both prominent runners who should be towards the front early, while Hypotenus and Kinbara Firstdraft are expected to track the pace. The key question is whether the leaders can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the hands of a strong traveller coming from just off the speed on this sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Conquer The Breeze KTB Selection61/100Smart performer who has won three of his last four starts and looks well treated on that form.
- 2Tree Top Tyson57/100Smart performer who has already shown his liking for Perth by finishing second here on his only completed start at the track.
- 3Hypotenus56/100Smart performer who has run respectably in both starts at Perth without winning.
- 4Kinbara Firstdraft56/100Useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 5Ras Kassar54/100Smart performer who has won three of his five starts and arrives in excellent order after two recent victories.
- 6Garde Des Champs52/100Smart performer who has won twice here and knows his way around Perth.
The contenders
Conquer The Breeze KTB Fit 61/100
Conquer The Breeze arrives in excellent order having won three of his last four starts. A smart performer who looks well treated on that recent form, he is dropping in class here which should suit. He has a solid record on good ground including two successes at this trip and has been placed on both previous visits to Perth without winning. The first-time headgear is an unknown but the combination of recent wins, trip suitability and the trainer's 13% strike rate at Perth from 30 runs with an A/E of 1.12 makes him the one to beat. Ryan Mania takes the ride for a trainer-jockey combination that shows 13/60 (22%) with an A/E of 1.07 and +£6.15 LSP.
Tree Top Tyson KTB Fit 57/100
Tree Top Tyson is a smart performer who has already shown his liking for Perth by finishing second here on his only completed start at the track. He has won on good ground and at this trip though his recent efforts have been mixed. First-time headgear is now applied in a bid to sharpen him up. The trainer Patrick Neville has a solid 15% strike rate at Perth from 81 runs with an A/E of 0.95 while Brian Hughes is in the saddle with a 15% strike rate at the track from 884 rides and an A/E of 0.88. Overall the trainer and jockey record stands at 20/84 (24%) with an A/E of 1.19 and +£2.23 LSP.
Hypotenus KTB Fit 56/100
Hypotenus is a smart performer who has run respectably in both starts at Perth without winning. He is dropping in class which could bring improvement and has shown he can win on good ground at this trip though his overall record at the distance is modest. First-time headgear is now tried as he seeks to find an edge. Neil Mulholland has a 20% strike rate at Perth from 89 runs with an A/E of 1.04 while Richie McLernon rides with a 2% strike rate at the venue from 91 rides and an A/E of 0.23. The trainer and jockey combination reads 42/347 (12%) with an A/E of 1.01 and -£21.65 LSP.
Kinbara Firstdraft KTB Fit 56/100
Kinbara Firstdraft is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. His Perth record reads well with one win from seven starts here. Recent form has been ordinary but the drop back from 2m4f looks a plus. Leonard Kerr has a 10% strike rate at Perth from 49 runs with an A/E of 1.11 while Conor Rabbitt claims 3lb with a 13% strike rate at the track from 56 rides and an A/E of 1.3. The trainer and jockey record stands at 0/8 (0%).
The rest of the field
Ras KassarKTB Fit 54/100
Ras Kassar is a smart performer who has won three of his five starts and arrives in excellent order after two recent victories. Dropping back from 2m3½f to an untried 2m poses a fresh question while first-time headgear adds another unknown. The trainer has no previous runners at Perth and the jockey has a 0% strike rate at the track from one ride.
Garde Des ChampsKTB Fit 52/100
Garde Des Champs is a smart performer who has won twice here and knows his way around Perth. Recent form is solid enough without being spectacular and he drops back to a trip he has won over in the past though he has been running over further lately. First-time headgear is an unknown on ground he handles. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Perth from 86 runs with an A/E of 0.63.
KTB verdict
Conquer The Breeze stands out as the KTB Selection. He has won three of his last four starts, looks well treated dropping in class and possesses a solid record on good ground at this trip. His placed efforts at Perth add to the appeal and the first-time headgear may only help him focus further. The main dangers are Tree Top Tyson, who has shown his liking for the track, and Hypotenus, who has run respectably here before, while Kinbara Firstdraft cannot be entirely dismissed given his course record.
KTB Selection Conquer The Breeze
This is the narrative read of the 2:41 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won three of its last four starts?
Conquer The Breeze
How many times has Garde Des Champs won at Perth?
Twice
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
All six runners: Conquer The Breeze, Tree Top Tyson, Hypotenus, Kinbara Firstdraft, Ras Kassar and Garde Des Champs
Which horse is dropping back from 2m4f?
Kinbara Firstdraft
What is the trainer's strike rate at Perth for the yard of Hypotenus?
20% from 89 runs
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