7:00 Killarney
The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cairn Rouge Stakes is a Listed Class 1 event over 1m40y at Killarney, featuring a competitive field of twelve three-year-olds. Several runners are stepping up in class while others bring progressive or consistent form into the race, with first-time headgear a feature on a number of contenders. KTB's Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, underlining a race where yard form at the venue, trip suitability and the application of headgear could all prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With a mix of run-styles in the field and no dominant front-runner apparent, the pace shape looks likely to be on the steady side early on before quickening in the straight. Green Carrera from stall 11 and White Sand Beach from stall 10 may be asked to work across from wide draws, while those drawn lower such as Drop Dead Gorgeous, Pivotal Attack and Meriden could look to secure prominent positions. The key question is whether the race will develop into a test of class and adaptability to the trip or whether the application of first-time headgear on several runners sparks improved performances at a crucial stage.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Green Carrera KTB Selection65/100Useful performer who has won three of his five starts at this trip including a recent success.
- 2Sinmara64/100Useful performer who has already won at this trip and finished a solid third on her most recent start.
- 3Sky Watch60/100Sky Watch is a useful performer on his best days with solid recent form figures of 631-53.
- 4Drop Dead Gorgeous60/100Useful performer who has already won over this trip.
- 5Pivotal Attack58/100Useful performer who has shown his best form over shorter trips.
- 6Quiet Mutiny57/100Useful performer who showed smart form when second on reappearance before a lesser effort last time.
- 7Spinning Around54/100Fair performer who has won once and placed twice from eight starts.
- 8Meriden54/100Meriden is a useful sort who arrives in top form having won four of his last five starts.
- 9Cromac Quay52/100Cromac Quay is a useful performer with progressive form figures of 321 from just three starts.
- 10White Sand Beach48/100White Sand Beach has been a consistent fair performer without winning, finishing second in three of his last six starts including here over further.
- 11Wild Bessie48/100Fair performer who has shown little in two starts this year after a modest debut.
- 12Donna Time36/100Modest performer who has shown some ability in three starts.
The contenders
Green Carrera KTB Fit 65/100
Green Carrera is a useful performer who has won three of his five starts at this trip, including a recent success. He brings strong recent form figures of 14-211 into the race and now tries first-time headgear following a mixed bag of results that included a below-par effort on his only previous run at this track. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard has an 18% strike rate at Killarney from a large sample of 441 runs, while Dylan Browne McMonagle has a 17% strike rate at the venue from 121 rides. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going and making his first appearance at the course, he steps up in class from stall 11.
Sinmara KTB Fit 64/100
Sinmara is a useful performer who has already won at this trip and finished a solid third on her most recent start. She brings strong recent form figures of 3-147 and course connections through the yard into the race. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien stable has an 18% strike rate at Killarney from a large sample of 441 runs, and Declan McDonogh has a 19% strike rate at the track from 298 rides. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going and with no course form on record, she lines up from stall 7.
Sky Watch KTB Fit 60/100
Sky Watch is a useful performer on his best days with solid recent form figures of 631-53. He drops sharply back in trip to 1m today, which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is also applied as he steps up in class. The M D O'Callaghan yard has a 13% strike rate at Killarney from 38 runs and Colin Keane has an 18% strike rate at the venue from 288 rides. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going and making his first run at the track, he is drawn in stall 8.
Drop Dead Gorgeous KTB Fit 60/100
Drop Dead Gorgeous is a useful performer who has already won over this trip. She brings course connections through the yard, which has a 22% strike rate at Killarney from a large sample of 501 runs, and now tries first-time headgear after a mixed bag of form that includes a win and two placed efforts from four starts. The A P O'Brien stable has a 15% strike rate with Wayne Lordan from their combined record. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going and with no course form on record, she is drawn in stall 1.
Pivotal Attack KTB Fit 58/100
Pivotal Attack is a useful performer who has shown his best form over shorter trips. He ran well when third here over 7f last month but was below that level on his only attempt at this distance, with recent form figures of 162-38. The Joseph G Murphy yard has a 13% strike rate at Killarney from 139 runs and Gary Carroll has an 8% strike rate at the venue from 197 rides. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going and with no course form on record, he lines up from stall 2.
The rest of the field
Quiet MutinyKTB Fit 57/100
Quiet Mutiny is a useful performer who showed smart form when second on reappearance before a lesser effort last time, with recent form figures of 1-240. Trainer P Twomey has a 37% strike rate at Killarney from 49 runs while W J Lee is a good fit in the saddle. The trip looks a fresh question having failed to land a blow in one previous attempt at this distance and the going remains an unknown with only four runs on the board.
Spinning AroundKTB Fit 54/100
Spinning Around is a fair performer who has won once and placed twice from eight starts, with recent form figures of 01-418. Trainer Donnacha Aidan O'Brien holds a 32% strike rate at Killarney from 28 runs and first-time headgear is tried on ground that remains unproven as he steps up in class.
MeridenKTB Fit 54/100
Meriden is a useful sort who arrives in top form having won four of his last five starts, with recent form figures of 061111. He steps up in trip today and has no experience of this ground which adds some unknowns. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Killarney from a big sample of 235 runs.
Cromac QuayKTB Fit 52/100
Cromac Quay is a useful performer with progressive form figures of 321 from just three starts. He steps up to 1m today having been placed both times he has tried the trip without winning. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 494 runs at Killarney while the jockey is aboard for the first time.
White Sand BeachKTB Fit 48/100
White Sand Beach has been a consistent fair performer without winning, finishing second in three of his last six starts including here over further. He drops back to a trip at which he has placed but never scored, while the first-time headgear is an unknown on ground he has never tried. The yard's 22% strike rate at Killarney gives some encouragement from stall 10.
Wild BessieKTB Fit 48/100
Wild Bessie is a fair performer who has shown little in two starts this year after a modest debut, with recent form figures of 8-10. The trip looks on the sharp side judged on what she has produced so far and the small amount of form available makes her hard to weigh up with confidence. Trainer Henry De Bromhead has a 17% strike rate at Killarney from 386 runs.
Donna TimeKTB Fit 36/100
Donna Time is a modest performer who has shown some ability in three starts, with recent form figures of 762. She was placed without winning over today's trip on her most recent run but has been beaten a long way on both previous outings. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 13 runs at Killarney.
KTB verdict
Green Carrera stands out as the KTB Selection. He has won three of his five starts at this trip including a recent success and the yard's solid 18% strike rate at Killarney from a large sample adds to his claims, with first-time headgear now fitted. Sinmara brings strong recent form and useful form at the trip, while Sky Watch, Drop Dead Gorgeous and Pivotal Attack are all respected for their ability on best days despite the questions they face over trip or with headgear applied. The race looks set to revolve around how these principals handle the step up in class and any pace-related demands on the day.
KTB Selection Green Carrera
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Killarney. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Killarney racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in class while wearing first-time headgear and coming off recent wins at the trip?
Green Carrera, who has recent form figures of 14-211 and is the KTB Selection.
How many runners in the field are trying first-time headgear?
Six runners are fitted with first-time headgear: Green Carrera, Sky Watch, Drop Dead Gorgeous, Spinning Around, Meriden is not but wait – actually Green Carrera, Sky Watch, Drop Dead Gorgeous, Spinning Around and White Sand Beach.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Killarney in this race?
P Twomey with a 37% strike rate at Killarney from 49 runs.
Which horse has course form at Killarney and is dropping back in trip?
White Sand Beach, who finished second here over further and has been placed at this trip without winning.
Who has the highest trainer strike rate at Killarney among the principals?
A P O'Brien with a 22% strike rate at Killarney from 501 runs for Drop Dead Gorgeous.
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