3:27 Nottingham
This Class 5 handicap over 2m1f208y at Nottingham features a small but competitive field of five where every runner is stepping up or dropping in class while carrying first-time headgear. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Regally Blonde and Merrijig sharing a 51 rating ahead of Simiyann on 46, underlining how little separates the principals on paper. All five are unproven on the prevailing ground, which adds a layer of uncertainty to a staying handicap that already asks fresh questions on trip for most of the runners.
How the race shapes up
With only five runners the pace shape is expected to be fairly even, though the run-styles suggest a race that could develop into a test of stamina. Merrijig and Simiyann are both likely to be held up off the pace, while Regally Blonde from stall one could attempt to make the running or sit prominently. The key question is whether the first-time headgear and the step up in trip will bring about improvement for any of the principals, or whether the race will be decided by those who settle best and handle the unknown ground most effectively.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Regally Blonde51/100Limited horse who has shown little spark in recent runs and now steps up markedly in trip for the first time.
- 2Merrijig KTB Selection51/100Modest performer who has run creditably on his last three starts including a placed effort here over shorter.
- 3Simiyann46/100Limited horse who has shown very little in recent starts and arrives in a first-time hood.
- 4Al Sayah45/100Modest performer who has been off since last summer and now tries first-time headgear.
- 5Oceanides39/100Limited performer who has shown very little in six starts with a string of modest efforts.
The contenders
Regally Blonde KTB Fit 51/100
Regally Blonde is a limited performer who has shown little spark in her recent runs on the Flat. She now steps up markedly in trip for the first time having previously shown her best form over hurdles, where she recorded a win from four visits to Nottingham. The trainer’s 18% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.76 from 11 runs is a positive, though the jockey’s 9% strike rate and A/E of 0.58 from 47 rides is less encouraging. First-time headgear is now fitted while she remains unproven on the ground. Her course record remains a plus in what looks a tight race on KTB figures.
Merrijig KTB Fit 51/100
Merrijig is a modest performer who has run creditably on his last three starts, including a placed effort here over shorter. He steps up in trip today having been tried once before at this distance without success and remains unproven on the ground. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard’s modest 4% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.44 from 95 runs offers little encouragement, although the jockey’s 16% strike rate and A/E of 1.07 from 81 rides is more positive. The selection arrives in solid recent form and his placed effort at the track suggests he can be competitive again.
Simiyann KTB Fit 46/100
Simiyann is a limited horse who has shown very little in recent starts. He now tries a first-time hood while stepping up in trip, which remains an unknown, and he has no course form on record. The yard’s 10% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.9 from 230 runs offers no particular encouragement, and the jockey is 0-12 at the track with an A/E of 0. Ground is also unproven. Overall he has plenty to prove on these terms despite a KTB Fit Score that keeps him in the conversation.
The rest of the field
Al SayahKTB Fit 45/100
Al Sayah is a modest performer who has been off since last summer and now tries first-time headgear. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has tried once without success while the going remains an unknown and the trainer is 0-10 at Nottingham.
OceanidesKTB Fit 39/100
Oceanides is a limited performer who has shown very little in six starts with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him, though the trainer’s 12% strike rate from 97 runs at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.05 offers a crumb of comfort.
KTB verdict
Merrijig is named the KTB Selection. He has run creditably on his last three starts, including a placed effort at this track over shorter, and the step up in trip is not without hope given his recent consistency. First-time headgear may help him settle and produce a career-best effort. The main dangers are Regally Blonde, who has a good record at Nottingham and the trainer’s solid course strike rate in her favour, and Simiyann, who cannot be entirely dismissed despite his modest recent efforts.
KTB Selection Merrijig
This is the narrative read of the 3:27 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course form at Nottingham?
Regally Blonde has a win over hurdles from four visits to the track and Merrijig has a placed effort here over shorter.
How many of the runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
All five runners are wearing first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Nottingham in this race?
Ben Case has an 18% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.76 from 11 runs.
What is the KTB Fit Score of the selection?
Merrijig has a KTB Fit Score of 51.
Which runners are proven on the trip or have tried it before?
Merrijig has been tried once before at this distance without success and Al Sayah has tried the trip once without success; the others are stepping up in trip for the first time.
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