4:02 Nottingham
This Class 5 confined handicap over 6f18y at Nottingham brings together eight three-year-olds who have won no more than once. The KTB Fit Scores point to a fairly modest bunch overall, headed by Night Mission on 61, with the next three principals closely grouped between 48 and 53. All runners are unproven on the surface and the going, adding layers of uncertainty to a race where trainer strike rates at the track will be scrutinised closely.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even spread with no obvious overload at the front or rear. Night Mission and Robert Anstruther are likely to be ridden with some patience from their middle to high draws, while Ballybunion from stall 2 and Whizzy Dizzy on the rail could be more forward. The key question is whether those held up can weave a path through as the field bunches in the final two furlongs on this straight track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Night Mission KTB Selection61/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on turf, finishing placed twice at this trip from five attempts though without winning.
- 2Ballybunion53/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing placed on two of his three starts last year including at this trip.
- 3Robert Anstruther52/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in 2025 yet retains some hope on his placed effort at this trip last year.
- 4Whizzy Dizzy48/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in recent starts over 5f.
- 5Slot46/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with a string of placed efforts including a second over 5f last time.
- 6Black Missile44/100Black Missile is a modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability in five runs, finishing no better than third.
- 7Rousham44/100Modest performer who has shown a bit of promise at this trip without winning.
- 8Liquid Cooled40/100Liquid Cooled is a limited performer who has shown some spark this year with a win and two placings from his three runs.
The contenders
Night Mission KTB Fit 61/100
Night Mission is a modest performer who has shown some ability on turf, finishing placed twice at this trip from five attempts though without winning. He drops back from 7f today which looks a sensible move given his placed efforts over 6f. The Michael Appleby yard brings a 15% strike rate at Nottingham from 619 runs with an A/E of 1.25, a solid record that offers encouragement. Alistair Rawlinson takes the ride, the pair combining with the trainer's overall 11% strike rate. Drawn in stall 8, his best efforts have come when not forced to make the running. The selection brings the strongest KTB Fit rating of 61 and looks to have the most going for him.
Ballybunion KTB Fit 53/100
Ballybunion is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing placed on two of his three starts last year including at this trip. He was well below that level on his return though and needs to bounce back quickly from stall 2. Dropping in class is a positive and the Michael Bell stable posts a 12% strike rate at Nottingham from 614 runs with an A/E of 0.9. Ross Coakley is aboard but is unproven at the track with a 9% strike rate from 55 rides. His recent form of 722-0 underlines the need for improvement on reappearance. The KTB Fit Score of 53 keeps him firmly in the picture if he can rediscover last year's spark.
Robert Anstruther KTB Fit 52/100
Robert Anstruther is a modest performer who has shown little spark in 2025 yet retains some hope on his placed effort at this trip last year. This is his first run at Nottingham and he is unproven on the surface, though the Henry Candy yard has a solid 12% strike rate here from 311 runs with an A/E of 0.99. Joanna Mason takes the ride and the horse's best recent efforts have come when ridden more patiently, which fits with a middle draw of 5. His form reads 7-4773 and the KTB Fit Score of 52 reflects a chance if the first-time track visit goes smoothly. The unknowns around the venue and going temper confidence somewhat.
Whizzy Dizzy KTB Fit 48/100
Whizzy Dizzy is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in recent starts over 5f. He steps up to 6f for the first time in a while having failed to land a blow at the trip on both previous attempts. Clive Cox has a solid 15% strike rate at Nottingham from 311 runs with an A/E of 1.03 and Harry Davies is in the saddle, though their combined record reads 0 from 11 with an A/E of 0.00. Drawn in stall 1 he could be forward early. Recent form of 27-446 suggests he needs to find extra and the KTB Fit rating of 48 places him towards the lower end of the principals.
The rest of the field
SlotKTB Fit 46/100
Slot is a modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with a string of placed efforts including a second over 5f last time. He steps up to 6f today having failed to land a blow in three previous tries at the distance and the yard's poor 2% strike rate at Nottingham from 44 runs with an A/E of 0.26 offers little encouragement. Recent form reads 3-5442 and the KTB Fit Score is 46.
Black MissileKTB Fit 44/100
Black Missile is a modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability in five runs, finishing no better than third. He has twice been tried over today's trip without success and first-time headgear is now applied in a bid to spark improvement. The Julie Camacho yard has a 9% strike rate from 58 runs at Nottingham. His form is 344-55 and the KTB Fit Score reads 44.
RoushamKTB Fit 44/100
Rousham is a modest performer who has shown a bit of promise at this trip without winning. Dropping back from 7f should suit and the first-time headgear is an interesting move given the recent form of 072104. Nigel Tinkler has an 8% strike rate from 463 runs at Nottingham while jockey Faye McManoman has limited experience at the track with a 3% strike rate. Stepping up in class and a KTB Fit Score of 44 complete the picture.
Liquid CooledKTB Fit 40/100
Liquid Cooled is a limited performer who has shown some spark this year with a win and two placings from his three runs. He drops back to 6f today having won at the trip earlier in his career though his most recent effort came over a mile. The Ben Haslam yard has a 0% strike rate from 18 runs at Nottingham. Stepping up in class with form 70-143 and a KTB Fit Score of 40.
KTB verdict
Night Mission stands out as the KTB Selection with the highest Fit Score and a trainer who operates at a profitable level at Nottingham. His placed efforts at this trip last season give him a clear foothold in the race and the drop back from 7f looks well judged. Ballybunion is the most obvious danger if he can bounce back from a lacklustre return, while Robert Anstruther's patient style could see him finishing with some purpose if the race sets up for those coming from off the pace. Whizzy Dizzy and the remainder of the field look held on balance.
KTB Selection Night Mission
This is the narrative read of the 4:02 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is dropping back to 6f a positive move for Night Mission?
Night Mission has shown placed efforts over 6f previously and his recent form includes runs over 7f where he has been less effective.
What does the first-time headgear mean for Black Missile and Rousham?
First-time headgear is applied to both in a bid to spark improvement from modest and limited recent form.
How does the trainer record at Nottingham influence the principals?
Michael Appleby has a 15% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.25, Clive Cox 15% with an A/E of 1.03, Henry Candy 12% with an A/E of 0.99 and Michael Bell 12% with an A/E of 0.9.
Which runners are stepping up or dropping in class?
Ballybunion is dropping in class, while Rousham and Liquid Cooled are stepping up in class.
What is the best recent run-style for Robert Anstruther?
Robert Anstruther's best recent efforts have come when ridden more patiently.
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