1:53 Redcar
This Class 4 Racing TV Free Trial EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes over 7f at Redcar features a field of 14 two-year-olds, several of whom are still relatively unexposed. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Mojito Madness heading the list on 55, followed closely by Gerry's Darling, Coul Blue, Bedwyr and Nosey Book. Conditions are good to firm, which introduces an element of uncertainty for those yet to race on such ground, while the lack of course form for most runners adds to the open nature of the contest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even spread with no dominant front-runners, though several runners are likely to be forward enough to ensure a genuine gallop. Mojito Madness and Hey Up Ronnie are expected to track the pace, while those drawn high such as Gerry's Darling and Coul Blue may need to find a position without using too much early energy. The key question is whether the race will be decided by the more experienced principals improving their form or one of the well-bred newcomers finding the necessary acceleration from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mojito Madness KTB Selection55/100Mojito Madness has shown fair form in two starts, finishing third then fifth, and has already placed at this trip.
- 2Gerry's Darling54/100Gerry's Darling has shown little in two starts so far, finishing 8th and 7th at this trip.
- 3Coul Blue53/100Coul Blue is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 4Bedwyr49/100Bedwyr has only one run behind him so the form is hard to weigh up.
- 5Nosey Book47/100Nosey Book is a debutant with low data confidence so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background.
- 6Bonjour Belle45/100Bonjour Belle has shown only modest form in two runs at this trip so far and needs to improve markedly to figure.
- 7Hey Up Ronnie44/100Hey Up Ronnie showed fair initial promise when fifth on debut over 6f.
- 8Bollin Marsha44/100Bollin Marsha has shown little in two runs at this trip so far.
- 9Thai Paddy44/100Tim Easterby is operating at an 8% strike rate from over 2,000 runs at Redcar.
- 10Kompozitor44/100Kompozitor is a newcomer with nothing on the board so his ability is completely unknown.
- 11Tommo's Queen43/100Tommo's Queen is a newcomer from the Easterby yard which has a modest 5% strike rate from 152 runs at Redcar.
- 12Dave's Matey42/100Dave's Matey has shown very little in two starts to date and finished a remote 13th on his only visit to Redcar.
- 13Hicko's Lad41/100Hicko's Lad showed little in two starts so far, finishing seventh on this track last time.
- 14Be More Ruthless41/100Be More Ruthless showed little on debut over this trip and has to improve markedly from a wide draw.
The contenders
Mojito Madness KTB Fit 55/100
Mojito Madness has shown fair form in two starts, finishing third then fifth, and has already placed at this trip. The small sample means it is too early to judge whether the good-to-firm ground will suit. Trainer Arnolda has no recorded runners at Redcar while jockey Dawson's record at the track is also limited. He is the KTB Selection and sits top of the Fit ratings on 55. From a workable draw in stall 8 he should be thereabouts if he can build on what he has shown so far. The 7f trip looks suitable on the evidence to date.
Gerry's Darling KTB Fit 54/100
Gerry's Darling has shown little in two starts so far, finishing 8th and 7th at this trip. The yard posts a solid 13% strike rate from 209 runs at Redcar. With only two career runs on the board the form is hard to weigh up. Dropping in class may help him show more, though his record on good to firm offers no encouragement. Kevin Stott teams up with the yard that has produced an 11% strike rate together, giving the combination some hope from stall 13 if he can find the required improvement.
Coul Blue KTB Fit 53/100
Coul Blue is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate from a huge sample at Redcar so no strong home advantage there. Pedigree and sales background will carry most of the weight here but with low data confidence this one remains very much an unknown. The trainer and jockey combination posts a 19% strike rate with a positive A/E of 1.68, which is the strongest such figure in the field. Mark Winn is in good form at the track with an 18% strike rate, so any market support for this Gregorian colt would be worth noting from his wide draw.
Bedwyr KTB Fit 49/100
Bedwyr has only one run behind him so the form is hard to weigh up. The yard have a solid 20% strike rate at Redcar from 25 runs. Trip looks fine on what little he has shown. He remains unproven on good to firm, which adds an element of risk. The trainer and jockey partnership has so far failed to strike from 12 rides, though the yard's local record offers some hope. Cam Hardie is aboard from stall 9 and this lightly raced sort could be capable of better if the first run taught him plenty.
Nosey Book KTB Fit 47/100
Nosey Book is a debutant with low data confidence so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background. Tim Easterby has an 8 percent strike rate from 2315 runs at Redcar. Oisin McSweeney takes the ride but no course-specific jockey data is available to judge. The Belardo pedigree offers some hope at this trip and the yard's modest record here is at least backed by a huge sample of runners. Drawn in stall 4 he could get a nice position early, though as a first-timer he will need to be good enough on the day.
The rest of the field
Bonjour BelleKTB Fit 45/100
Bonjour Belle has shown only modest form in two runs at this trip so far and needs to improve markedly to figure. The Brian Ellison yard posts a 7 percent strike rate from 444 runs at Redcar which is nothing to shout about. Ben Robinson has limited experience here so the pair carry low expectations on this lightly raced filly's third start.
Hey Up RonnieKTB Fit 44/100
Hey Up Ronnie showed fair initial promise when fifth on debut over 6f. The step up to 7f today asks a fresh question of this lightly-raced colt and the small sample means any assessment must be cautious. Trainer Ollie Pears has a modest 4% strike rate from 231 runs at Redcar while jockey Harry Russell's record at the track is not supplied.
Bollin MarshaKTB Fit 44/100
Bollin Marsha has shown little in two runs at this trip so far. The Tim Easterby yard records an 8 percent strike rate from 2315 runs at Redcar. With only two career starts the form must be treated with real caution.
Thai PaddyKTB Fit 44/100
Tim Easterby is operating at an 8% strike rate from over 2,000 runs at Redcar. Thai Paddy has a single run under his belt at this trip and showed little on debut. With only one piece of form to go on and a wide draw in stall 12 the colt remains hard to assess.
KompozitorKTB Fit 44/100
Kompozitor is a newcomer with nothing on the board so his ability is completely unknown. The Barron yard has a modest 7 percent strike rate from 87 runs at Redcar and Lewis Edmunds has limited experience here too. Pedigree and sales background will have to do the talking on debut.
Tommo's QueenKTB Fit 43/100
Tommo's Queen is a newcomer from the Easterby yard which has a modest 5% strike rate from 152 runs at Redcar. The pedigree and sales information offers the only real clues here but with low data confidence any assessment has to be tentative. Billy Garritty takes the ride on a filly whose ability remains completely unknown.
Dave's MateyKTB Fit 42/100
Dave's Matey has shown very little in two starts to date and finished a remote 13th on his only visit to Redcar. The Tim Easterby yard posts an 8% strike rate from over 2300 runs at the track while apprentice Jake Dickson has limited experience here. With such a poor start to his career and only low-confidence data available any promise remains well hidden.
Hicko's LadKTB Fit 41/100
Hicko's Lad showed little in two starts so far, finishing seventh on this track last time. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Redcar from a big sample offers no encouragement. With only two runs on his record any firm conclusions are premature.
Be More RuthlessKTB Fit 41/100
Be More Ruthless showed little on debut over this trip and has to improve markedly from a wide draw. The yard's modest 3% strike rate at Redcar from 88 runs offers no encouragement. With only one run on the clock and too few data points to judge the going, this remains very much an unknown.
KTB verdict
Mojito Madness is the KTB Selection. He has the best Fit Score in the race and has already shown fair form in two starts while placing at this trip, which gives him a solid platform. The small sample on good to firm is the main unknown but his overall profile looks the most straightforward. Main dangers are the well-related newcomer Coul Blue, who could be anything on pedigree and benefits from a strong trainer-jockey combination, and Hey Up Ronnie who showed initial promise on debut. Bedwyr and Nosey Book are next in the Fit order and could improve past some of the more exposed runners if the race develops favourably.
KTB Selection Mojito Madness
This is the narrative read of the 1:53 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer and jockey combination record at Redcar?
Coul Blue's trainer and jockey partnership posts a 19% strike rate with an A/E of 1.68.
How many runners in the field have previous course form at Redcar?
Only two runners have previous course form: Dave's Matey finished 13th on his only visit and Hicko's Lad finished 7th last time out here.
Which horse has the highest trainer strike rate at the course?
Bedwyr's yard has a 20% strike rate at Redcar from 25 runs.
What is the KTB Fit Score of the selection and the second highest rated horse?
Mojito Madness is rated 55 while Gerry's Darling is next on 54.
How many of the principals are debutants?
Three of the top five principals are debutants: Coul Blue, Bedwyr and Nosey Book.
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