2:23 Redcar
This Class 5 restricted maiden for three-year-olds at Redcar over 7f on good to firm ground features a compact field of just six runners, several of whom arrive with limited experience. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 51 and 43, underlining the modest level of the contest and the open nature of the race. With most horses unproven on the surface and several making their first visit to the track, the KTB numbers point to a race that will be decided as much by who handles the conditions best as by established form.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a steadily run affair with no obvious front-runner among the principals. Feliz Navidad and Derrygarran Lad are likely to settle in mid-division or just off the pace, while Indefensible tends to race prominently and could again take up a forward position from draw 2. Twilight Baby and the two debutants may track the leaders or come from further back, meaning the race could be won or lost in the final two furlongs once the tempo lifts. The key question is whether the drop in trip suits those who have tried a mile, or if the step up from 6f plays into the hands of the more experienced Indefensible.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Feliz Navidad KTB Selection51/100Feliz Navidad showed some promise when fifth on debut over 1m at this track.
- 2Derrygarran Lad48/100Derrygarran Lad has shown placed form in both starts so far including a solid second last time out.
- 3Indefensible45/100Modest performer who has been consistent without winning, placing in five of nine starts including three of five at this trip.
- 4Twilight Baby45/100Twilight Baby has shown very little in two starts at this trip and remains hard to fancy on such limited evidence.
- 5Ben Travato44/100Brian Ellison is 7% at Redcar from a big sample and Ben Robinson adds nothing special here.
- 6Triple P43/100Tim Easterby is no stranger to Redcar with an 8% strike rate from over 2300 runs but this is a debutant with low data confidence.
The contenders
Feliz Navidad KTB Fit 51/100
Feliz Navidad showed some promise when fifth on debut over 1m at this track. The drop back to 7f poses a fresh question for a horse with only one run in the book. Trainer David O'Meara has a 15% strike rate from 752 runs at Redcar while Daniel Tudhope is on board. The combination of O'Meara and Tudhope carries a solid record at the venue, with the trainer on 15% and the jockey on 18%. The KTB Fit rating of 51 is the highest in the field and the selection carries the vote on the back of that debut effort. Unproven on good to firm ground remains the main unknown.
Derrygarran Lad KTB Fit 48/100
Derrygarran Lad has shown placed form in both starts so far including a solid second last time out. He now drops back from a mile to 7f having already tried the trip once without success. The yard's modest 9% strike rate at Redcar from a large sample adds a note of caution with this lightly raced sort. Julie Camacho and Ryan Sexton team up with a combined record that offers little encouragement at the track. The KTB Fit of 48 places him right in the mix but the drop in class is offset by the trip concerns and the trainer's modest local figures.
Indefensible KTB Fit 45/100
Indefensible is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, placing in five of nine starts including three of five at this trip. Steps up from 6f today which looks a fair question given his placed efforts over 7f already. Trainer's 4% strike rate from 231 runs at Redcar is a clear negative while the yard's horse makes its first appearance here. Ollie Pears and Harry Russell have a combined strike rate of just 4-5% at the venue according to the card figures. The KTB Fit of 45 reflects a horse who has been competitive at a low level but lacks a winning edge, and the good to firm going has seen him place once in two attempts.
Twilight Baby KTB Fit 45/100
Twilight Baby has shown very little in two starts at this trip and remains hard to fancy on such limited evidence. The yard records a modest 11 percent strike rate at Redcar from 64 runs. With only two career runs overall the picture is tentative at best and the going remains an unknown. Gay Kelleway and Shane Gray both have modest records at the track according to the supplied stats. The KTB Fit of 45 matches that of Indefensible but the lack of any encouraging form leaves this one with plenty to find.
The rest of the field
Ben TravatoKTB Fit 44/100
Ben Travato is a debutant fitted with first-time headgear which is often a negative sign at this stage. Brian Ellison is 7% at Redcar from a big sample and Ben Robinson adds nothing special here, while the KTB Fit of 44 reflects low data confidence with no racecourse form to go on.
Triple PKTB Fit 43/100
Triple P is a debutant with low data confidence. Tim Easterby is no stranger to Redcar with an 8% strike rate from over 2300 runs but the modest yard record at the track and the KTB Fit of 43 mean this one has to be taken on trust.
KTB verdict
Feliz Navidad is the KTB Selection. He showed some promise on debut over a mile here and the drop to 7f, while a question, comes in a race where several others also have trip doubts or modest local records. The combination of David O'Meara and Daniel Tudhope at Redcar adds further appeal on a day when the yard's 15% strike rate at the venue stands out. Main dangers are Derrygarran Lad, who brings placed form but has his own trip queries, and the consistent but winless Indefensible who steps up in trip having been placed over 7f before.
KTB Selection Feliz Navidad
This is the narrative read of the 2:23 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit rating?
Feliz Navidad with a KTB Fit of 51.
How many of Indefensible's starts have resulted in a placing?
Five of nine starts.
What is the trainer strike rate at Redcar for David O'Meara?
15% strike rate at Redcar from 752 runs.
Which runner is stepping up from 6f to 7f?
Indefensible.
How many runs has Derrygarran Lad had?
Two runs, both producing placed form.
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