5:40 Ballinrobe
This maiden over 1m1f135y at Ballinrobe on good ground brings together an 11-runner field where official ratings and recent form are largely modest. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Taj Crown on 55, with several others within a few points and many making their first attempt at this trip. Trainer and jockey records at the track vary markedly, from strong figures for Joseph Patrick O’Brien and Dylan Browne McMonagle to modest ones for some of the bigger yards, while the lack of course form across the entire field adds an extra layer of uncertainty.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated unclear and low confidence, the race lacks a dominant front-running type and several runners are noted as held up. Taj Crown, Tyraxes and others are likely to be produced late, which could mean the race is decided from off the pace if the leaders go hard enough. The key question is whether the step up in trip for so many will produce improved performances or simply stretch them beyond their comfort zone on this tight track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Taj Crown KTB Selection55/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency this year but has failed to land a blow in his last four starts.
- 2Tyraxes54/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 3Shay's Dream52/100Shay's Dream has been well beaten in three starts to date and arrives here with a bare 0-00 record.
- 4Countertop50/100Countertop has shown very little in five starts to date with a string of poor efforts including a last-place finish on return.
- 5Churchfield Lady47/100Churchfield Lady has shown little in two starts to date and is hard to fancy on what she has produced so far.
- 6Half Cut45/100Half Cut has only two runs on the board and both were poor.
- 7Avec Grand Plaisir44/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on his last two starts, finishing third and seventh in competitive maidens.
- 8Guinelot43/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year and a modest 54 form line so far.
- 9Contrite42/100Contrite has shown little in two starts so far and now tries first-time headgear.
- 10Noble Venture38/100Noble Venture has shown little in two starts to date, finishing seventh of 14 then last of 10.
- 11Stabannon37/100Stabannon has been beaten a long way in both starts so far and the drop back from 1m4f looks an unknown rather than an obvious plus.
The contenders
Taj Crown KTB Fit 55/100
Taj Crown is a modest performer who has shown some consistency this year but has failed to land a blow in his last four starts. He steps up in trip for the first time today and that asks a fresh question of him while first-time headgear is also applied. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 84 runs and the jockey is on 10% from 202 rides at the track. He has been placed once from three starts on good ground and is held up, usually producing his effort late. With a recent form line of -52862 and an official rating in keeping with the race, he is the KTB selection.
Tyraxes KTB Fit 54/100
Tyraxes is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip for the first time in first-time headgear while making his debut at this track. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 202 runs and the jockey is on 12% from 43 rides here. He has had two runs on good ground without winning or placing and is held up, usually producing his effort late. His recent form reads 203045 and he is closely matched on KTB Fit with the selection.
Shay's Dream KTB Fit 52/100
Shay's Dream has been well beaten in three starts to date and arrives here with a bare 0-00 record. The yard posts a solid 17% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 161 runs and the jockey has an excellent 41% strike rate from 34 rides at the track. Stepping up markedly in trip for the first time poses a fresh question while the small amount of form available means the assessment must be treated with caution. He has had one run on good ground without placing and is likely to be held up. The recent form figures are 0-00.
Countertop KTB Fit 50/100
Countertop has shown very little in five starts to date with a string of poor efforts including a last-place finish on return. The step up in trip poses a fresh question and could help but there is not much encouragement in the form so far. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at the track from 53 runs though the jockey is only 5% from 21 rides here. He has had one run on good ground without placing. His recent form is 0700-0 and he carries a 3lb claim.
Churchfield Lady KTB Fit 47/100
Churchfield Lady has shown little in two starts to date and is hard to fancy on what she has produced so far. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while the small sample means her effectiveness on good ground remains unknown. The trainer has a 16% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 250 runs and the jockey is on 14% from 168 rides at the track. She is from a powerful yard and jockey combination but her recent form of 78 leaves plenty to find. The KTB Fit score is 47.
The rest of the field
Half CutKTB Fit 45/100
Half Cut has only two runs on the board and both were poor. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 61 runs but the jockey is operating at just 4% from 23 rides here. Dropping back from 1m4f to an untried 1m1f today asks a fresh question of a horse with very little else to go on.
Avec Grand PlaisirKTB Fit 44/100
Avec Grand Plaisir is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his last two starts, finishing third and seventh in competitive maidens. He steps up in trip today having failed to land a blow at this distance on his previous attempt. The trainer has a 7% strike rate from 76 runs at Ballinrobe and he has been placed once from one start on good ground.
GuinelotKTB Fit 43/100
Ginelot is lightly raced with just two runs this year and a modest 54 form line so far. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also an unknown. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 84 runs here.
ContriteKTB Fit 42/100
Contrite has shown little in two starts so far and now tries first-time headgear. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while the small sample means both going and overall ability remain unknown. The trainer has a solid 20% strike rate at the track from 243 runs.
Noble VentureKTB Fit 38/100
Noble Venture has shown little in two starts to date, finishing seventh of 14 then last of 10. The step up in trip raises a fresh question while the wide draw is far from ideal. The trainer strike rate here is 4% from 26 runs and the jockey is still seeking a first Ballinrobe winner from 17 rides.
StabannonKTB Fit 37/100
Stabannon has been beaten a long way in both starts so far and the drop back from 1m4f looks an unknown rather than an obvious plus. The trainer is 0-5 at the track while the jockey has a modest 3% strike-rate from 176 rides here. With only two runs on the board this one has to be treated with caution.
KTB verdict
Taj Crown is the KTB selection. A modest performer who has shown consistency this year without winning, he now steps up in trip for the first time with the added help of first-time headgear and is produced late from a decent draw. The trainer and jockey both have respectable records at Ballinrobe and the placed effort on good ground offers some encouragement. His main dangers are Tyraxes, who shares a similar held-up profile and has solid yard and jockey figures at the track despite a modest recent record, and Shay's Dream from the powerful O’Brien yard with an outstanding jockey booking. The race is open and the lack of pace data and course form for all runners makes it difficult to be certain how things will unfold.
KTB Selection Taj Crown
This is the narrative read of the 5:40 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start in headgear?
Taj Crown, Tyraxes, Guinelot and Contrite are all wearing first-time headgear.
How many runners are stepping up in trip for the first time?
Taj Crown, Tyraxes, Shay's Dream, Countertop, Avec Grand Plaisir and Noble Venture are all stepping up in trip.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Ballinrobe in this race?
Dylan Browne McMonagle has a 41% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 34 rides.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at the track among those represented?
D K Weld has a 20% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 243 runs.
Which horses are held up according to the run-style data?
Taj Crown and Tyraxes are noted as held up and usually producing their effort late.
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