5:15 Nottingham
This Class 5 handicap over 6f18y at Nottingham on good to firm ground brings together eight runners, most of whom are modest performers seeking to rediscover their best. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Southern Warrior heading the numbers on 64 despite being unproven on the surface, followed closely by Emperor Caradoc on 62, Sixtygeesbaby on 59 and Hoodie Hoo on 57. Recent form is mixed across the field, several horses arrive with first-time headgear, and a few are dropping in class, all of which adds layers to a race where the KTB numbers suggest a competitive but unexceptional contest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a contested lead with several runners who like to race prominently or up with the pace. Southern Warrior and Hoodie Hoo are expected to be forward from their low draws, while Jenever from stall one and Emperor Caradoc should also be involved early. This sets up a race where the ability to secure a good early position could be decisive, and the key question is whether any of the hold-up performers can weave their way through a field that is likely to bunch up in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Southern Warrior KTB Selection64/100Modest performer who won a 6f maiden on this track last summer and has placed twice more over the trip since.
- 2Emperor Caradoc62/100Emperor Caradoc is a fair performer who has won twice from three runs at Nottingham and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with three wins from eight s…
- 3Sixtygeesbaby59/100Fair performer who has won twice at this trip but arrives in ordinary form having failed to place in any of his last six starts.
- 4Hoodie Hoo57/100Modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with form figures of 6-2445.
- 5Jenever56/100Jenever is a modest performer who has won once from three starts at Nottingham and also has two wins from 18 runs at this trip.
- 6Logi Bear50/100Modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par on his last two starts.
- 7Loquella50/100Modest performer who won over this trip on debut but has failed to build on it in four starts since.
- 8Dark Kestrel33/100Limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and has never won in 50 starts.
The contenders
Southern Warrior KTB Fit 64/100
Southern Warrior is a modest performer who won a 6f maiden on this track last summer and has placed twice more over the trip since. Dropping back from 7f should suit and the yard’s 13% strike rate at Nottingham is solid. The trainer and jockey combination holds an 8% strike rate with an A/E of 0.74, while the trainer alone is 13% at the track with an A/E of 1.72 from 16 runs and the jockey is 11% with an A/E of 1.49 from 9 rides. He is lightly raced on good to firm so the ground remains an unknown, and he has no course form beyond that maiden success. His recent form figures read 541350 and he is drawn in stall 3 as a 3-year-old.
Emperor Caradoc KTB Fit 62/100
Emperor Caradoc is a fair performer who has won twice from three runs at Nottingham and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with three wins from eight starts. He has also won at this trip though his recent form has been mixed and he now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer holds a 13% strike rate here from 223 runs with an A/E of 0.96, while the overall trainer-jockey record stands at 11% with an A/E of 0.82. His recent form reads 013562 and at the age of 7 he is drawn in stall 6. The combination of course prowess, going affinity and the first-time headgear makes him a major player in a race where his experience counts for plenty.
Sixtygeesbaby KTB Fit 59/100
Sixtygeesbaby is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip but arrives in ordinary form having failed to place in any of his last six starts. First-time headgear is tried today and the yard's modest 10% strike-rate at Nottingham offers no particular encouragement. He goes well enough on good to firm with one win from six starts and is dropping in class, yet this looks a stiff task from stall eight. The trainer and jockey record stands at 15% with an A/E of 0.89, the jockey alone is 15% at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.92 from 253 rides, and his recent form figures read 805085. As a 4-year-old he carries the hopes of connections who will be hoping the new headgear sparks a revival.
Hoodie Hoo KTB Fit 57/100
Hoodie Hoo is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with form figures of 6-2445. Placed on his only run here and on one of two starts on good to firm so the conditions look suitable enough while the first-time headgear is an interesting addition. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over though the yard's 12% strike rate at Nottingham from 173 runs offers only modest encouragement. The trainer and jockey record is 15% with an A/E of 1.05, the jockey is 16% at the track with an A/E of 1.1 from 85 rides, and he is drawn in stall 2 as a 4-year-old. His placed effort over course and distance earlier in the year gives him a clear foothold in the race.
The rest of the field
JeneverKTB Fit 56/100
Jenever is a modest performer who has won once from three starts at Nottingham and also has two wins from 18 runs at this trip. He drops back from 7f today having shown little spark in recent runs and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate from 32 runs at the track adds no real encouragement.
Logi BearKTB Fit 50/100
Logi Bear is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par on his last two starts. He has won over today's trip but is 0-3 on good to firm ground and the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Nottingham adds no encouragement. First run here so course form is unknown.
LoquellaKTB Fit 50/100
Loquella is a modest performer who won over this trip on debut but has failed to build on it in four starts since. Dropping back from 7f looks a plus given the earlier 6f success yet the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Nottingham offers little encouragement. Rowan Scott takes the ride on a horse whose lightly-raced profile leaves going suitability unclear.
Dark KestrelKTB Fit 33/100
Dark Kestrel is a limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and has never won in 50 starts. At Nottingham he ran respectably once without threatening to win and the trainer's record here is poor at 2% from 46 runs. First-time headgear is now tried on good to firm ground where he has been competitive once but remains winless at this trip.
KTB verdict
Southern Warrior is the KTB Selection and shapes as the one to beat having won a 6f maiden here last summer and placed twice more over the trip. Dropping back from 7f is a positive and the yard’s solid 13% strike rate at Nottingham adds to his claims, even with the ground an unknown. His principal dangers are Emperor Caradoc, who boasts two wins from three course starts and a good record on good to firm, and the first-time headgear pair Sixtygeesbaby and Hoodie Hoo, both of whom are dropping in class and have shown enough to suggest they can be competitive if the new headgear brings improvement.
KTB Selection Southern Warrior
This is the narrative read of the 5:15 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Nottingham?
Emperor Caradoc has won twice from three runs at Nottingham.
How many of the runners are trying first-time headgear?
Four runners are trying first-time headgear: Emperor Caradoc, Sixtygeesbaby, Jenever and Dark Kestrel. Hoodie Hoo is also noted with first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Nottingham among those represented?
Olly Williams has a 13% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.72 from 16 runs.
Who has won over the course and distance before?
Southern Warrior won a 6f maiden on this track last summer.
Which runners are dropping in class for this race?
Sixtygeesbaby, Hoodie Hoo, Logi Bear and Loquella are all dropping in class.
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