5:33 Leopardstown
This Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden at Leopardstown over 7f57y on good ground brings together a dozen two-year-olds, several of whom are still unproven at the trip or on the surface. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive affair at the top of the field, headed by Sea Of Rain on 57, with Armarone's Girl, Churchill Bond, Lily Bear and Citrus Springs completing the principals. Experience at the track and trip is limited for many, so the race is likely to revolve around those with placed form and the debutants from the stronger yards.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo with several runners likely to be forward or prominent early. Sea Of Rain has shown a tendency to race prominently or in mid-division, while several debutants could settle midfield or be held up. The key question is whether the race will be decided by those with previous experience at Leopardstown or if one of the well-bred newcomers can land a blow on debut.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sea Of Rain KTB Selection57/100Sea Of Rain has shown consistent form, finishing in the first four on all four starts including two placed efforts here at Leopardstown.
- 2Armarone's Girl55/100Cian Hughes has a solid 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from six runs.
- 3Churchill Bond52/100Churchill Bond is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 4Lily Bear49/100Lily Bear showed very little at Leopardstown on debut and is now fitted with first-time headgear.
- 5Citrus Springs47/100Citrus Springs showed only modest form when sixth on debut over 6½f.
- 6Sherry Eyed47/100Sherry Eyed is a newcomer from a yard that has a 10 percent strike rate at Leopardstown from 1827 runs.
- 7Coastal Wonder44/100Coastal Wonder is a debutant with no racecourse experience.
- 8Miss Twilight44/100Miss Twilight is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 9Villaray44/100Villaray is a newcomer from the G M Lyons yard which has a solid 11% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample.
- 10Ballymackney44/100Ballymackney has shown little in two starts to date, finishing seventh then ninth.
- 11Lusted42/100Lusted is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 12Violet Be Humble42/100Violet Be Humble showed some promise when fourth on debut over a mile.
The contenders
Sea Of Rain KTB Fit 57/100
Sea Of Rain has shown consistent form, finishing in the first four on all four starts including two placed efforts here at Leopardstown. He is a fair colt who has been placed three times at this trip without winning, though the good ground remains an unknown with so few runs behind him. The Bolger yard has a solid 14% strike rate at the track while McDonogh is an experienced rider here with a 9% strike rate. Connections hold a 13/144 record together. The colt has been placed on all three starts on good ground and holds the highest KTB Fit rating.
Armarone's Girl KTB Fit 55/100
Armarone's Girl is a debutant who brings a useful pedigree and sales background but arrives with no racecourse experience to judge her readiness. Cian Hughes has a solid 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from a small sample of six runs and Ben Coen takes the ride on ground that should be fine. The yard's trainer-jockey record stands at an impressive A/E of 1.93 at the track. With the highest Fit rating among the debutants she is entitled to plenty of respect despite the 40/1 market position.
Churchill Bond KTB Fit 52/100
Churchill Bond is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background are not supplied here so the assessment rests entirely on the yard's solid Leopardstown record and the booking of W J Lee. P Twomey strikes at 26% at the track with an A/E of 1.11 from 78 runs and the trainer-jockey combination shows a strong 28% strike rate together. Connections are clearly giving this debutant every chance on a track where the trainer is held in high regard.
Lily Bear KTB Fit 49/100
Lily Bear showed very little at Leopardstown on debut and is now fitted with first-time headgear. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate here from 76 runs. She has no experience of good ground and her sole start resulted in a seventh-place finish at this track. Trainer and jockey show a combined 9% strike rate with an A/E just above 1.00. Everything else is based on a single run so must be read with caution despite the KTB Fit of 49.
Citrus Springs KTB Fit 47/100
Citrus Springs showed only modest form when sixth on debut over 6½f. He now steps up in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard holds a 13% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample of 1047 runs and Dylan Browne McMonagle has a 13% strike rate at the track. The colt has one run on good ground without placing and the trainer-jockey record stands at 19% together.
The rest of the field
Sherry EyedKTB Fit 47/100
Sherry Eyed is a newcomer from a yard that has a 10 percent strike rate at Leopardstown from 1827 runs. The trainer and jockey combination carries obvious respect but with no racecourse form to go on the level of ability remains guesswork.
Coastal WonderKTB Fit 44/100
Coastal Wonder is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 20 runs at Leopardstown so any conclusions rest mainly on pedigree and sales background.
Miss TwilightKTB Fit 44/100
Miss Twilight is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. Her pedigree and sales background are the only clues available and the low data confidence means any assessment has to stay tentative.
VillarayKTB Fit 44/100
Villaray is a newcomer from the G M Lyons yard which has a solid 11% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample. The jockey Colin Keane is aboard but with low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on the sales and pedigree background.
BallymackneyKTB Fit 44/100
Ballymackney has shown little in two starts to date, finishing seventh then ninth. The step up from 5f to 7f asks a fresh question of a horse with only two runs in the book and the yard has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown.
LustedKTB Fit 42/100
Lusted is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 10 runs at Leopardstown.
Violet Be HumbleKTB Fit 42/100
Violet Be Humble showed some promise when fourth on debut over a mile. She now drops back in trip to a distance she has never tried, which asks a fresh question of her with only one run on the board.
KTB verdict
Sea Of Rain is the KTB Selection. He has shown consistent form with four runs under his belt, including placed efforts at this track and trip, and the Bolger-McDonogh combination brings plenty of local know-how. The good ground is the main remaining question but his placed efforts on that surface add confidence. The main dangers are the debutants Churchill Bond from the strong Twomey yard and Armarone's Girl, along with the promising but inexperienced Villaray from the Lyons stable.
KTB Selection Sea Of Rain
This is the narrative read of the 5:33 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the most placed form at Leopardstown?
Sea Of Rain, who has finished third and second in two runs at the track.
What is the strongest trainer strike rate at Leopardstown among the principals?
P Twomey with a 26% strike rate at the track.
Which runner is stepping up in trip from a debut sixth over 6½f?
Citrus Springs.
Who is wearing first-time headgear in this race?
Lily Bear.
Which horse has been placed on all three starts on good ground?
Sea Of Rain.
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