2:00 Thirsk
This Class 3 EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 7f at Thirsk brings together a compact field of seven juveniles, most of whom arrive with limited racecourse exposure. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 56 and 46, underlining the tentative nature of the form on offer and the reliance on trainer trends and pedigree for the debutants. Good ground is forecast and the race represents an early opportunity in the Sky Bet Go-Racing-In-Yorkshire Summer Festival.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a steadily run affair with no obvious front-runner among the principals. Isabella De Vega from stall 2 and Diamond New Bay drawn on the rail are likely to track the early pace while the two previous 6f runners in Love Tanya and Diplomata can be expected to come from just off it as they step up in trip. The key question is whether any of the debutants can produce the necessary pace and tactical speed on their first run, or whether the placed and fourth-placed fillies will prove fitter and quicker to find their stride.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Isabella De Vega KTB Selection56/100Isabella De Vega is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 24% strike rate at Thirsk.
- 2Diplomata53/100William Haggas has a solid 26% strike rate at Thirsk from 200 runs.
- 3Skyglow48/100Skyglow showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over this trip at Redcar.
- 4Love Tanya47/100Love Tanya showed fair promise when third on debut over 6f and now steps up to 7f for the first time.
- 5Diamond New Bay46/100Diamond New Bay is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 12% strike rate at Thirsk from a large sample.
- 6Little Lady Karen46/100Little Lady Karen has shown fair placed form in both starts so far and is dropping back to 7f having been beaten over an extra half furlong last time.
- 7Martinet46/100Martinet showed fair promise when finishing fourth on debut over this trip.
The contenders
Isabella De Vega KTB Fit 56/100
Isabella De Vega is the KTB Selection. A newcomer by Lope De Vega, she represents a yard that has a 24% strike rate at Thirsk from 38 runs with an A/E of 1.08. The Ed Walker stable clearly knows the track well and the jockey George Downing has an excellent 25% strike rate here with an A/E of 2.33 from only 16 rides. Trainer and jockey combined show an 18% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.65. With no racecourse form to go on the pedigree and sales background must do the heavy lifting, resulting in a low confidence assessment despite the positive trainer and course trends.
Diplomata KTB Fit 53/100
Diplomata showed fair form when finishing fourth on debut over 6f and now steps up to 7f for the first time. William Haggas has a 26% strike rate at Thirsk from 200 runs with an A/E of 0.95 while Rossa Ryan posts a 28% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.15 from 18 rides. The pair have combined for a 40% strike rate from only ten runs together with an A/E of 1.58. This is a step up in class and the filly remains unproven on good ground, so the overall picture is still tentative with just one run on the board.
Skyglow KTB Fit 48/100
Skyglow showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over this trip at Redcar. The yard has a 13% strike rate at Thirsk from 16 runs with an A/E of 1.00 while Jason Hart has a 9% strike rate at the venue from a large sample of 461 rides with an A/E of 0.8. Trainer and jockey combined show a 13% strike rate from 15 runs with an A/E of 0.87. The filly is unproven on good ground and with just one run on the clock she remains very much an unknown quantity despite that initial promise.
Love Tanya KTB Fit 47/100
Love Tanya showed fair promise when third on debut over 6f and now steps up to 7f for the first time. Edward Bethell has a 13% strike rate at Thirsk from 68 runs with an A/E of 0.75 while Ryan Sexton posts an 11% strike rate at the track from 57 rides with an A/E of 0.99. This represents a step up in class and the filly is unproven on good ground. With only one run on the board the overall picture remains tentative.
The rest of the field
Diamond New BayKTB Fit 46/100
Diamond New Bay is a newcomer whose pedigree and sales background must carry the bulk of the argument given the complete absence of racecourse form. K. R. Burke has a 12% strike rate at Thirsk from 447 runs with an A/E of 0.85 while Clifford Lee has a 13% strike rate here from 132 rides with an A/E of 0.8; the pair have combined for a 16% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.92. Connections will be hoping the filly is ready to go on debut but the data available is thin.
Little Lady KarenKTB Fit 46/100
Little Lady Karen has shown fair placed form in both starts so far, finishing third then second, and is dropping back to 7f having been beaten over an extra half furlong last time. Rated a modest performer on what she has achieved, she remains lightly raced with scope to improve. K. R. Burke posts a 12% strike rate at Thirsk from 447 runs while Sam James has a 7% strike rate here from 283 rides; the pair have combined for a 16% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.89. She has had two runs on good ground without winning or placing.
MartinetKTB Fit 46/100
Martinet showed fair promise when finishing fourth on debut over this trip. The yard has a 22% strike rate at Thirsk from 123 runs with an A/E of 1.02 while Jack Gilligan has a 0% strike rate here from eight rides. Trainer and jockey combined show a 14% strike rate from 42 runs with an A/E of 0.67. He is lightly raced so further improvement is possible though the trip looks about right on what he has done so far and he is unproven on good ground.
KTB verdict
Isabella De Vega is the KTB Selection in what is essentially an open and unexposed race. The Ed Walker yard's 24% strike rate at Thirsk and George Downing's fine record at the track provide the strongest trainer-jockey combination on show, and the Lope De Vega pedigree offers plenty of encouragement for the step up to 7f on debut. The main dangers are the placed and fourth-placed fillies who bring some racecourse experience, with Diplomata from the powerful Haggas yard and the consistent Little Lady Karen the most likely to challenge if the newcomer fails to fire on her first run.
KTB Selection Isabella De Vega
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Isabella De Vega | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Diplomata | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Skyglow | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Love Tanya | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Diamond New Bay | Evens | LiveScore Bet |
| Little Lady Karen | 7/2 | LiveScore Bet |
| Martinet | 12/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Thirsk in this race?
Ed Walker with a 24% strike rate from 38 runs and an A/E of 1.08.
Which horse is stepping up in trip from a placed effort on debut?
Love Tanya, who was third over 6f on debut and now steps up to 7f.
How many of these runners are unproven on good ground?
Four runners are unproven on good ground: Diplomata, Skyglow, Love Tanya and Martinet.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Thirsk among those riding in this race?
George Downing with a 25% strike rate and an A/E of 2.33 from 16 rides.
Which horse is dropping back in trip after two starts?
Little Lady Karen, who has been placed in both starts and is dropping back to 7f after racing over an extra half furlong last time.
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