2:30 Thirsk
This Class 4 novice stakes over six furlongs at Thirsk brings together a field of nine two-year-olds with relatively limited experience between them. The going is good and the pace shape is unclear with low confidence, meaning the race could develop in a variety of ways. KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top end, with the principals all rated between 50 and 52, underlining that this looks an open and competitive heat for the time of year.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated unclear and low confidence owing to insufficient run-style data across the field, it is difficult to forecast how the race will unfold with any certainty. Several runners are unproven at the trip or on the ground, so the key question is which horse will handle the step up to six furlongs most effectively while adapting to the conditions. The race may be won or lost in the closing stages as the lack of established pace influences leaves scope for a variety of tactical scenarios.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Statten Island KTB Selection52/100Statten Island has shown fair form in two starts at this trip, finishing fourth on both occasions.
- 2Blessed Voyager51/100Blessed Voyager won on debut over 5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him.
- 3Blakey Ridge51/100Blakey Ridge showed fair promise when third on debut over 5f.
- 4Dodgem50/100Dodgem is a first-time runner whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 5Meccapulco45/100Meccapulco is a debutant so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background rather than racecourse evidence.
- 6Spruce44/100Spruce showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over 7f.
- 7Roman Crystal43/100Roman Crystal has shown only modest form in three runs at this trip, finishing no better than sixth.
- 8Naughty At Forty41/100Naughty At Forty is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 9Trust In Far30/100Limited performer who has shown very little in three starts at this trip.
The contenders
Statten Island KTB Fit 52/100
Statten Island has shown fair form in two starts at this trip, finishing fourth on both occasions. The colt remains open to improvement with only two runs on the board though he has yet to place. Kevin Ryan’s yard posts a 12% strike rate at Thirsk from a large sample of 807 runs while Tom Eaves has his own established record at the track. The trainer and jockey combination shows an 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.90 from 2031 runs together. With the going read showing one run on good without a win or place and no course form on record, there is still plenty of scope for the selection to build on what has been seen so far.
Blessed Voyager KTB Fit 51/100
Blessed Voyager won on debut over five furlongs and now steps up to six furlongs for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. The colt handled today’s going when scoring and is drawn in stall nine. Ralph Beckett has a 19% strike rate at Thirsk from 57 runs while Rossa Ryan’s record at the track remains too small a sample to judge with any real confidence. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 21% strike rate with an A/E of 0.96 from 1050 runs together. Having scored at a 1-1 record on good ground, Blessed Voyager arrives with the benefit of a winning run under his belt though the longer trip remains untested.
Blakey Ridge KTB Fit 51/100
Blakey Ridge showed fair promise when third on debut over five furlongs. He now steps up to six furlongs for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. Declan Carroll has a 9% strike rate at Thirsk from 425 runs while Zak Wheatley shows an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.04 from 66 rides. The trainer and jockey combination records a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.93 from 701 runs together. Dropping in class is a positive and the absence of any runs on good ground means the colt is unproven on the surface, yet his debut effort suggests he can make a solid impression if the step up in trip suits.
Dodgem KTB Fit 50/100
Dodgem is a first-time runner whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. By Palace Pier, he represents a sire with a 12% overall win rate from 402 runners. The Julie Camacho yard has a solid 10% strike rate at Thirsk from 240 runs while Ryan Sexton shows an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.99 from 57 rides. The trainer and jockey combination records a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.89 from 540 runs together. Connections will be hoping the colt shows enough on debut to build from, and the draw in stall one could prove advantageous if he breaks sharply.
The rest of the field
MeccapulcoKTB Fit 45/100
Meccapulco is a debutant so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background rather than racecourse evidence. Michael Dods has a solid 10% strike rate at Thirsk from 1140 runs and Mark Winn takes the ride.
SpruceKTB Fit 44/100
Spruce showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over seven furlongs. He now drops back to six furlongs for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. Grant Tuer’s yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Thirsk from 99 runs which adds little encouragement.
Roman CrystalKTB Fit 43/100
Roman Crystal has shown only modest form in three runs at this trip, finishing no better than sixth. He was well held when fifth on his only visit to Thirsk and remains a modest performer on the balance of what he has achieved so far. The yard’s modest record at the track adds no encouragement and the hold-up run style is noted.
Naughty At FortyKTB Fit 41/100
Naughty At Forty is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Thirsk from 107 runs and data confidence is low given the complete absence of racecourse form.
Trust In FarKTB Fit 30/100
Trust In Far is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts at this trip. The yard’s record at Thirsk is 0% from a small sample of four runs and stall four looks no help on what is known so far.
KTB verdict
Statten Island is the KTB Selection. He has posted fair form when finishing fourth in both starts at this trip and remains open to improvement with only two runs behind him. The Kevin Ryan yard’s 12% strike rate at Thirsk from a large sample gives plenty of encouragement, as does the presence of Tom Eaves in the saddle. His main dangers are likely to be Blessed Voyager, who arrives off the back of a winning debut though the step up to six furlongs is an unknown, and Blakey Ridge who showed fair promise on debut and drops in class. Dodgem cannot be entirely discounted on debut if his pedigree translates quickly to the track.
KTB Selection Statten Island
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Statten Island | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Blessed Voyager | 10/11 | Bet365 |
| Blakey Ridge | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Dodgem | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Meccapulco | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Spruce | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Roman Crystal | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Naughty At Forty | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Trust In Far | 100/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:30 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Thirsk among the principals?
Blessed Voyager’s trainer Ralph Beckett has a 19% strike rate at Thirsk from 57 runs.
Has any horse in the field won on good ground?
Blessed Voyager has one win from one run on good ground.
Which runner has course form at Thirsk?
Roman Crystal has one run at Thirsk, finishing fifth with no win or place.
What is the highest trainer and jockey combination strike rate shown in the race?
Ralph Beckett and Rossa Ryan show a 21% strike rate with an A/E of 0.96 from 1050 runs together.
Which horse is stepping up in trip from a winning debut?
Blessed Voyager won on debut over 5f and now steps up to 6f.
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