2:20 Ascot
The Longines Valiant Stakes is a Group 3 contest over nearly a mile at Ascot on good to firm ground, featuring a compact but competitive field of eight. KTB's Fit Scores identify Touleen as the clear top pick on 68, with Kon Tiki, Skydance and Pina Sonata forming the principal quartet, while the remainder sit between 49 and 44. The pace shape is unclear with low confidence owing to insufficient run-style data across the runners, leaving the race's shape open to interpretation.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated unclear and low on confidence, it is difficult to be definitive about how the race will unfold. Arisaig is the only horse with a noted front-running tendency, though the evidence is limited, so he could set the tempo from stall eight. The key question is whether the race develops into a tactical affair or if the principals can slot into a rhythm that suits their proven abilities at the trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Touleen KTB Selection68/100Smart performer who has finished no worse than second in three of his last four starts and has already shown his liking for this track when runner-up here.
- 2Kon Tiki55/100Smart performer who has already shown his ability around this track, finishing fourth in a strong handicap here last season before a solid second at Group level…
- 3Skydance54/100Smart performer who has already won at this trip and showed his best form when landing a Listed race last time out.
- 4Pina Sonata50/100Pina Sonata is a useful performer who has won two of her four starts at this trip.
- 5Arisaig49/100Useful performer who has run six times at Ascot without winning yet has placed here once.
- 6Sukanya47/100Sukanya is a useful performer who has shown that level on her day but has been below form on her last two starts.
- 7Esna46/100Useful performer who has won once and been placed twice from six starts.
- 8Cheshire Dancer44/100Useful performer who has won at this track and at today's trip.
The contenders
Touleen KTB Fit 68/100
Touleen stands out as a smart performer who has finished no worse than second in three of his last four starts. He has already shown his liking for Ascot when finishing runner-up here and has won on good to firm ground while also being placed at today's trip, so the conditions look suitable. The three-year-old is drawn in stall seven. Both trainer Owen Burrows and jockey William Buick have solid records at the track, with Burrows posting a 17% strike rate and an A/E of 1.16 from 107 runs, and Buick recording 14% at an A/E of 0.92 from 857 rides. His recent form reads 15-262 and he carries the KTB Selection tag with a Fit Score of 68.
Kon Tiki KTB Fit 55/100
Kon Tiki is a smart performer who has shown his ability around Ascot, finishing fourth in a strong handicap here last season before a solid second at Group level on his most recent start. He has won on good to firm and boasts a good record at today's trip. The four-year-old's two previous course efforts, however, suggest he needs to improve to land a race of this calibre at Ascot. Trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam has a modest 7% strike rate at the track from 135 runs while jockey Ryan Moore maintains a strong 14% record from 1246 rides. His form figures read 117-24 and he is rated with a KTB Fit of 55.
Skydance KTB Fit 54/100
Skydance is a smart performer who has already won at this trip and showed his best form when landing a Listed race last time out. The three-year-old's recent form reads 3265-1. Trainer W McCreery has yet to strike at Ascot from a dozen runners, an A/E of 0, while jockey Oisin Murphy maintains a solid 11% strike rate at an A/E of 0.93 from 546 rides. He has no course form on record and is unproven on good to firm ground. Course connections add some encouragement but the small overall sample means there are still questions to answer. His KTB Fit Score is 54.
Pina Sonata KTB Fit 50/100
Pina Sonata is a useful performer who has won two of her four starts at this trip. She returns to Ascot where she has already scored this year and looks well placed from stall four. The four-year-old has no previous runs on good to firm ground, leaving her unproven on the surface. Trainer James Fanshawe has an 11% strike rate at Ascot from 398 runs while jockey Daniel Muscutt operates at a modest 2% from 90 rides. Her recent form is 106-17 and she carries a KTB Fit of 50.
The rest of the field
ArisaigKTB Fit 49/100
Arisaig is a useful performer who has run six times at Ascot without winning, though he has placed here once. He has shown fair form on good to firm with one win and four places from ten runs and has won at today's trip; the trainer's modest 3% strike rate at the track is a negative, but jockey Jamie Spencer has a solid record. His form reads 0-2483 and he tends to make the running.
SukanyaKTB Fit 47/100
Sukanya is a useful performer who has shown that level on her day but has been below form on her last two starts. She has twice run respectably at Ascot without placing, has won once from four runs on good to firm and the trip looks on the sharp side. Both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track. Her form is 29-106.
EsnaKTB Fit 46/100
Esna is a useful performer who has won once and been placed twice from six starts. Dropping back from 1m2f to 7f asks a fresh question while the yard and jockey both operate at a modest 6% strike rate at Ascot. She has no course form and the small-sample going data on good to firm leaves that side unknown. Recent form is 14-410.
Cheshire DancerKTB Fit 44/100
Cheshire Dancer is a useful performer who has won at this track and at today's trip. Recent form is modest and first-time headgear is now applied after a string of ordinary efforts. Both trainer and jockey have below-average records at Ascot. His form reads 7-0580.
KTB verdict
Touleen emerges as the KTB Selection with the highest Fit Score and a profile that fits the race well. He has already placed at Ascot, handles good to firm and the trip, and benefits from strong trainer and jockey combinations at the track. Kon Tiki brings solid Group-level form and prior course experience, while Skydance and Pina Sonata add depth as smart and useful performers respectively with recent wins in lesser company. The race's unclear pace adds an element of uncertainty, but Touleen's consistency and track affinity make him the one to beat.
KTB Selection Touleen
This is the narrative read of the 2:20 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Touleen on 68.
Has any horse shown previous form at Ascot?
Touleen was runner-up here, Kon Tiki finished fourth in a handicap and seventh here, Arisaig has placed once from six runs, Sukanya has run twice without placing, and Cheshire Dancer has won here.
Which runner is unproven on good to firm ground?
Skydance has had no runs on good to firm, Pina Sonata is unproven on the ground, and Esna has two runs on good to firm with no win or place.
Who is the only horse noted as tending to make the running?
Arisaig, though with limited evidence and low confidence.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Cheshire Dancer.
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