3:40 Nottingham
The 3:40 at Nottingham is a Class 5 Weatherbys VAT Services Nursery Handicap over 6f18y on good to firm ground, featuring a field of seven two-year-olds. KTB’s Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with the top four all rated between 47 and 59, underlining the modest standard of the race overall. The KTB numbers point to a contest where experience, trip suitability and the ability to handle an uncontested lead will be key factors.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those racing off the pace to reel in. Leucothea and Star People are the types to go forward, while Dissenter is likely to race prominently. The key question is whether the clear leader can dictate matters throughout or if the closers, including the selection Boleto, can bridge the gap in the final furlong on this sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Boleto KTB Selection59/100Modest performer who showed useful early speed to win a 6f maiden on debut but has failed to build on it in two subsequent runs.
- 2Fern Clyde56/100Fern Clyde has shown modest ability in six runs this year with a win and two placings at this trip.
- 3Leucothea55/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at 5f but was well held when last seen.
- 4Dissenter47/100Modest performer who won a 6f maiden here on good to firm last time after finishing fifth on debut.
- 5Harry's Pop45/100Harry's Pop is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts, including three efforts at this trip without getting his head in front.
- 6Star People44/100Modest performer who has shown a bit of ability on two of his three starts at this trip, finishing second on the latest one.
- 7Mobadir44/100Mobadir has shown only modest form in three runs so far, finishing no better than sixth, which matches his overall level.
The contenders
Boleto KTB Fit 59/100
Boleto is the KTB Selection. This modest performer showed useful early speed to win a 6f maiden on debut but has failed to build on it in two subsequent runs. The Clive Cox yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Nottingham from a big sample of 313 runs, while Rossa Ryan rides with a 14% strike rate at the track. The trip looks fine and the draw in stall four is reasonable, though with only three runs the full picture is not yet clear. Dropping in class is a positive and he is expected to be held up, producing his effort late.
Fern Clyde KTB Fit 56/100
Fern Clyde has shown modest ability in six runs this year with a win and two placings at this trip. The Tim Easterby yard has a 9% strike rate at Nottingham from a large sample of 618 runs, and Jake Dickson takes the ride with a 30% strike rate at the track from ten rides. First-time headgear is now applied which may help him to find a bit more. He is another who will usually be held up and produce his effort late, and the good to firm ground remains something of an unknown after just one previous run on it.
Leucothea KTB Fit 55/100
Leucothea is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at 5f but was well held when last seen. She steps up to 6f today for the first time in four runs and that trip change remains an open question. Richard Hannon has a solid 14% strike rate at Nottingham from 349 runs while Sean Levey, who has a 17% strike rate at the track, is in the saddle. Dropping in class is a positive and her front-running style could be particularly effective given the lone-leader pace shape.
Dissenter KTB Fit 47/100
Dissenter is a modest performer who won a 6f maiden here on good to firm last time after finishing fifth on debut. The Marcus Tregoning yard has a 12% strike rate at Nottingham from 74 runs while the 5 lb claimer Ashley Lewis is aboard with a 33% strike rate at the venue. Trip and ground look ideal on what is known so far. He is likely to race prominently on or close to the lead, which should suit the shape of this race, and he holds a strong recent course winning performance.
The rest of the field
Harry's PopKTB Fit 45/100
Harry's Pop is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts, including three efforts at this trip without getting his head in front. Stall one could be an advantage on a sharp track but he has yet to show he can raise his game enough to win a race of this type. The Dylan Cunha yard has a solid 20% strike-rate here from 41 runs.
Star PeopleKTB Fit 44/100
Star People is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability on two of his three starts at this trip, finishing second on the latest one. The John & Sean Quinn yard's modest record at Nottingham offers little encouragement and the colt remains lightly raced with plenty to prove. Trip and ground both unknowns at this stage.
MobadirKTB Fit 44/100
Mobadir has shown only modest form in three runs so far, finishing no better than sixth, which matches his overall level. He is trying the same trip again having failed to make an impact at it twice already. The Ed Walker yard has a solid 16% strike rate at Nottingham from a decent sample.
KTB verdict
Boleto is the KTB Selection. He showed useful early speed to win a 6f maiden on debut and, while he has failed to build on that in two subsequent runs, the yard’s solid record at Nottingham and a reasonable draw give him every chance to bounce back in this nursery. Dropping in class looks a sensible move for a horse with only three runs under his belt. The main dangers are likely to be Leucothea if she can make the most of the uncontested lead from her front-running style, and Dissenter who arrives off the back of a course and distance maiden success on good to firm ground.
KTB Selection Boleto
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to secure the uncontested lead?
Leucothea is the front-runner in the field while Star People can also go forward, but the pace shape indicates one clear leader with little pressure.
What is the significance of the first-time headgear on Fern Clyde?
First-time headgear is now applied to Fern Clyde who has shown a win and two placings at this trip from six runs.
How many runs has Boleto had and what was his debut achievement?
Boleto has had three runs, winning a 6f maiden on debut with useful early speed before failing to build on it subsequently.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Nottingham among those represented?
Dylan Cunha has a 20% strike rate at Nottingham from 41 runs, ahead of Ed Walker on 16% and Clive Cox on 15%.
Why is the trip an open question for Leucothea?
Leucothea steps up to 6f today for the first time in four runs after showing consistent placed form at 5f.
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