4:10 Nottingham
A modest Class 6 sprint over the minimum trip at Nottingham on good to firm ground brings together six runners, most of whom carry the first-time headgear flag. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top end, with four principals all rated in the low-to-mid 50s, underlining the ordinary nature of the contest and the likelihood that the result will hinge on which horse responds best to the new headgear and the steadily-run conditions. Recent form is largely uninspiring across the board, yet several hold placed form at the track and the race looks open on paper.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Little Jaybee is the one most likely to race prominently and could therefore enjoy an advantageous position, while the three held-up runners – Star Marian, Invincible Crown and Sergeant Mayer – will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the early fractions may not be strong. The key question is whether the prominent runner can dictate matters or if the closers will be able to summon the necessary burst on this ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Hurt You Never53/100Modest performer who has won over this trip and on this ground.
- 2Little Jaybee KTB Selection53/100Modest performer who has shown a bit of ability on this track when second here on his only visit.
- 3Star Marian53/100Limited performer who has won once over today's trip but has looked out of form since early summer.
- 4Invincible Crown50/100Limited class performer who has been in and out this year but showed his best when winning over this trip in July and finishing second here last time.
- 5Sergeant Mayer48/100Sergeant Mayer is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 6Up The Monk43/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and now drops to the minimum trip for the first time.
The contenders
Hurt You Never KTB Fit 53/100
Hurt You Never is a modest performer who has won over this trip and on this ground. He has won once from two starts at Nottingham and arrives in reasonable heart having shown bits of form this year from a long handicap mark. First-time headgear is now applied. The seven-year-old typically settles in midfield. His trainer has an 11% strike rate at Nottingham from 38 runs while the jockey has a 9% strike rate here from 11 rides. He has recorded six wins from 16 starts on good to firm.
Little Jaybee KTB Fit 53/100
Little Jaybee is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability on this track when second here on his only visit. He has won over today's trip but his recent form is ordinary and first-time headgear is now applied after a string of lesser efforts. The trainer's solid 10% strike rate at Nottingham from a large sample gives some encouragement though the yard's runners often need a run or two to hit peak form. The three-year-old usually races handily, on or close to the lead. He has recorded one run on good to firm without placing and was placed but failed to win on his sole previous run at the course.
Star Marian KTB Fit 53/100
Star Marian is a limited performer who has won once over today's trip but has looked out of form since early summer. First-time headgear is now tried after a string of poor efforts and the yard's solid 11% strike-rate at Nottingham offers some encouragement. The three-year-old remains unproven on good to firm ground. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. His trainer has an 11% strike rate at the track from 89 runs and the jockey has a 14% strike rate here from 164 rides. This represents a drop in class.
Invincible Crown KTB Fit 50/100
Invincible Crown is a limited class performer who has been in and out this year but showed his best when winning over this trip in July and finishing second here last time. He has been competitive on good to firm without winning and the yard's modest 7% strike rate at Nottingham offers no strong angle. Stall two looks fine and he should go well again without being certain to reverse the placings with the one who beat him last time. The four-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. He has been placed on three of ten starts on good to firm and was placed but failed to win on his only previous run at the course.
The rest of the field
Sergeant MayerKTB Fit 48/100
Sergeant Mayer is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has won at this track and over today's trip but is now dropping back in distance from 6f having looked one-paced at longer. The yard's modest 8% strike-rate at Nottingham adds little encouragement. The five-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. He has recorded two wins from 12 starts on good to firm and has won here from two starts.
Up The MonkKTB Fit 43/100
Up The Monk is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and now drops to the minimum trip for the first time. First-time headgear is reached for after a string of modest efforts. Trainer holds a solid 15% strike rate at Nottingham from a big sample. The four-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. He has recorded three runs on good to firm without winning or placing and has no course form on record.
KTB verdict
Little Jaybee is named the KTB Selection. He showed a bit of ability when second on his only visit to Nottingham and his prominent run-style looks ideally suited to a steadily-run race that lacks an obvious leader. The first-time headgear may help him to put a sequence of ordinary efforts behind him, while the trainer's respectable record at the venue adds a layer of encouragement. Hurt You Never, Star Marian and Invincible Crown are the main dangers, with the latter in particular holding solid recent placed form at the track and on the surface.
KTB Selection Little Jaybee
This is the narrative read of the 4:10 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course winning form at Nottingham?
Hurt You Never has won once from two starts at Nottingham and Sergeant Mayer has also won here from two starts.
Who is unproven on good to firm ground in this field?
Star Marian has no runs on good to firm and remains unproven on the surface. Little Jaybee and Up The Monk have both had three runs or fewer on good to firm without placing.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Hurt You Never, Little Jaybee, Star Marian and Up The Monk are all fitted with first-time headgear.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays. Little Jaybee's prominent style therefore looks advantageous.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Nottingham among those represented?
Michael Appleby has a 15% strike rate at Nottingham from 623 runs. David Loughnane has an 11% strike rate from 89 runs.
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