6:30 Roscommon
The 6:30 at Roscommon is a 19-runner DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle over 2m7f210y on good ground. A competitive field mixes useful and smart performers, several of whom are trying the trip for the first time while others bring strong course form. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Itsaworkinmaniam, Kalanisi Flash and Western Model heading the numbers.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone-leader pace shape, the race is set to be run with one horse clear from the start and little to challenge it early. Smackwater Jack is the obvious candidate to take that uncontested lead, while most of the field are held-up types who will be asked to close late. The key question is whether the clear leader can dictate and prove hard to peg back or whether the closers, including several first-time headgear runners, can bridge the gap on this stiff stamina test.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Itsaworkinmaniam KTB Selection67/100Useful sort who showed smart form when winning a maiden at this track last summer before finishing a close second in a handicap here.
- 2Kalanisi Flash66/100Smart performer who has been out of sorts this year with three pulled-ups from his last four starts.
- 3Western Model65/100Western Model is a useful performer who has won both starts at this trip and looks well suited by the distance again.
- 4Sound Judgement65/100Smart performer who showed his best form when winning at this trip on good ground last time.
- 5Mephisto62/100Smart performer who has run well enough in defeat on his last two starts and now tries headgear for the first time.
- 6Born Bright61/100Smart performer who has run creditably without winning on both previous visits to Roscommon.
- 7Mr Dibbs60/100Useful performer who won last time out after a string of modest efforts.
- 8She'll Be Kept60/100Useful performer who showed her best when winning at Killarney last time and has a solid 1-6 record on good ground.
- 9It's Not His Fault58/100It's Not His Fault shaped with promise on his first two starts before tailing off in two subsequent runs.
- 10Mavetherave53/100Useful sort who has shown enough in stronger races to suggest he can be competitive here.
- 11Priory Park52/100Useful performer who has been lightly campaigned in recent seasons and arrives off the back of some modest efforts.
- 12Sallap51/100Useful performer who has won two of his last four starts and arrives in decent form after a respectable fifth last time.
- 13Glitz And Glamour51/100Useful mare who has shown enough in defeat to suggest she can be competitive at this level.
- 14Starzov47/100Starzov is a useful performer on his day and showed he can handle this track when winning here on his only previous visit.
- 15Its Not Over Yet46/100Useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 16Wild Mandate46/100Useful performer who showed his best form when winning a handicap at Down Royal in May before pulling up last time.
- 17Knocknagoran Lady46/100Useful mare who has won two of her last three starts and arrives in decent form.
- 18Smackwater Jack45/100Smackwater Jack is a useful 12-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two placed efforts from his last three starts.
- 19Getaway Charlie43/100Useful performer who has shown his best form at this track with a third and a fourth from two runs here.
The contenders
Itsaworkinmaniam KTB Fit 67/100
Itsaworkinmaniam is a useful sort who showed smart form when winning a maiden at this track last summer before finishing a close second in a handicap here. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question. First-time headgear is also a new factor and the trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Roscommon. The combination of Brian M McMahon and J J Slevin carries an A/E of 1.07 overall, with both having above-average records at the track. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and arrives off the back of recent form figures of 15F26-. He is the KTB Selection.
Kalanisi Flash KTB Fit 66/100
Kalanisi Flash is a smart performer who has been out of sorts this year with three pulled-ups from his last four starts. He drops back in trip today having failed to finish his only previous try at this distance and first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate here from 166 runs while the jockey is making his first appearance at the track. With recent form figures of /3PP-P, his ability remains respected on his best days yet current form raises questions. Usually held up, he will be produced late off a potentially stiff task against the lone leader.
Western Model KTB Fit 65/100
Western Model is a useful performer who has won both starts at this trip and looks well suited by the distance again. He has already won at Roscommon from two visits and holds a solid record on good ground with a win and three places from four runs. The trainer maintains a strong 18% strike rate here from 17 runs. Recent form of 25-831 shows consistent promise, and with Donagh Meyler in the saddle the 9% course strike rate for the jockey is noted. Usually held up with high confidence, he can be expected to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may prove hard to catch.
Sound Judgement KTB Fit 65/100
Sound Judgement is a smart performer who showed his best form when winning at this trip on good ground last time. Course connections are strong and the yard has a solid 17% strike rate here from a big sample. First-time headgear is now fitted after a patchy profile that includes two pulled-ups in his last six starts. Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy boast a 19% strike rate together, and the horse’s prominent run-style means he will race handily, potentially closer to the uncontested leader than most. Recent form reads P26-31, underlining his effectiveness at the trip on good ground.
Mephisto KTB Fit 62/100
Mephisto is a smart performer who has run well enough in defeat on his last two starts and now tries headgear for the first time. He has never won over this far and was pulled up the only time he ran here, while the yard's modest 5% strike rate at Roscommon adds little encouragement. Going record is fair but not strong. With recent form of 5P-470 the nine-year-old is usually held up with high confidence in his run-style. The 5lb claimer Eoghan Finegan takes the ride and the jockey’s 14% strike rate at the track from a small sample is respectable.
The rest of the field
Born BrightKTB Fit 61/100
Born Bright is a smart performer who has run creditably without winning on both previous visits to Roscommon. He drops back from 3m1f to a trip he has won at before, and the first-time headgear is another plus on good ground where his record reads three wins from ten runs. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate here from a smallish sample.
Mr DibbsKTB Fit 60/100
Mr Dibbs is a useful performer who won last time out after a string of modest efforts. He drops back from 3m2f to a trip he has never tried while sporting first-time headgear. The trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate at Roscommon from a big sample while the 5lb claimer is taking the ride.
She'll Be KeptKTB Fit 60/100
She'll Be Kept is a useful performer who showed her best when winning at Killarney last time and has a solid 1-6 record on good ground. Brian McMahon’s 14% strike-rate at Roscommon from 28 runners is respectable and the yard has been in decent form. She steps up in trip today for the first time which remains an unknown.
It's Not His FaultKTB Fit 58/100
It's Not His Fault shaped with promise on his first two starts before tailing off in two subsequent runs. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of this useful sort. The yard's modest 8% strike-rate at Roscommon from a big sample adds a note of caution.
MavetheraveKTB Fit 53/100
Mavetherave is a useful sort who has shown enough in stronger races to suggest he can be competitive here. He has placed twice from three runs on good ground and the drop back from 3m looks a sensible move. Trainer strikes at 8% here from 12 runs while this is the horse's first visit to Roscommon.
Priory ParkKTB Fit 52/100
Priory Park is a useful performer who has been lightly campaigned in recent seasons and arrives off the back of some modest efforts. He has shown ability on good ground with a win from four starts but has failed to trouble the judge in six runs at this trip. The yard has only had one runner here so far which is too small a sample to judge.
SallapKTB Fit 51/100
Sallap is a useful performer who has won two of his last four starts and arrives in decent form after a respectable fifth last time. He drops back from three miles to an untried 2m7f today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has a solid 13 percent strike rate from 24 runs at Roscommon while the horse handles good ground.
Glitz And GlamourKTB Fit 51/100
Glitz And Glamour is a useful mare who has shown enough in defeat to suggest she can be competitive at this level. She is placed on her only previous visit to Roscommon and has a solid record on good ground including a win. She steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question.
StarzovKTB Fit 47/100
Starzov is a useful performer on his day and showed he can handle this track when winning here on his only previous visit. He has been out of form for some time though and his record on good ground is poor. The step up in trip asks a fresh question while the trainer's modest record at the course adds little encouragement.
Its Not Over YetKTB Fit 46/100
Its Not Over Yet is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. He has shown little spark in two runs this year and is 0-7 on good ground so far. First-time headgear is now reached for.
Wild MandateKTB Fit 46/100
Wild Mandate is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning a handicap at Down Royal in May before pulling up last time. He drops back in trip today with first-time headgear and has a solid record on good ground. Trainer operates at a 7% strike rate from 68 runs at Roscommon.
Knocknagoran LadyKTB Fit 46/100
Knocknagoran Lady is a useful mare who has won two of her last three starts and arrives in decent form. She is dropping back in trip having been placed without winning at this distance before, while first-time headgear is now fitted. Trainer has no recorded runs at Roscommon.
Smackwater JackKTB Fit 45/100
Smackwater Jack is a useful 12-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two placed efforts from his last three starts. He has course experience here at Roscommon where he finished a respectable fourth on his only visit, while his trainer operates at a 2% strike rate from 53 runs at the track. He steps up in trip today having already won twice at this distance, and he has shown he can be competitive on good ground without winning.
Getaway CharlieKTB Fit 43/100
Getaway Charlie is a useful performer who has shown his best form at this track with a third and a fourth from two runs here. He has placed at today's trip without winning and has been competitive on good ground though without a victory. First-time headgear is now applied while the trainer's modest record at the course is a negative.
KTB verdict
Itsaworkinmaniam is the KTB Selection. A useful sort with smart form in maidens and handicaps at this track last summer, he brings strong local trainer and jockey figures into a race where his held-up style should see him delivered late against a lone leader. The first-time headgear may help him produce a career best now stepping up in trip. Western Model and Sound Judgement head the dangers, with the former’s course-winning record and proven stamina at the trip, and the latter’s recent winning form on good ground and prominent run-style, both carrying significant threats. Kalanisi Flash and several of the field runners cannot be entirely dismissed if the headgear sparks improvement.
KTB Selection Itsaworkinmaniam
This is the narrative read of the 6:30 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Roscommon among the principals?
Western Model has won here from two visits.
How many of the top five principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Four of the top five principals are wearing first-time headgear: Itsaworkinmaniam, Kalanisi Flash, Sound Judgement and Mephisto.
Which runner is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Smackwater Jack, whose run-style is front-runner, is the most likely to take the uncontested lead given the lone-leader pace shape.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Roscommon in the entire field?
Andrew Kinirons has an 18% strike rate at Roscommon from 17 runs with Western Model.
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip having shown early promise?
It's Not His Fault steps up markedly in trip today having shaped with promise on his first two starts.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies