6:00 Roscommon
The 6:00 at Roscommon is a 19-runner maiden hurdle over 1m7f110y on good ground. A competitive field mixes useful performers with modest sorts and several debutants, producing a wide spread of KTB Fit Scores from 57 down to 38. The KTB numbers highlight a clutch of hold-up performers with recent form while underlining the modest track records of several yards involved.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present and the pace shape carrying high confidence. Speisialta and Le Roi Arthur are both inclined to race on or near the lead while Whoyougonnacall likes to race prominently, setting up a test that could see the pace collapse late. That scenario would play into the hands of the numerous hold-up horses, several of whom produce their effort from off the pace, making late closing ability the key question in the race.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Direct Approach KTB Selection57/100Useful performer who has shown steady progress, finishing third in a decent handicap at Down Royal last time after a poor debut effort.
- 2Leva Deva55/100Leva Deva has shown little so far with two poor efforts and a pulled-up run this year.
- 3John Gun54/100John Gun is a debutant with no racecourse experience.
- 4Earthwatch54/100Earthwatch is a useful performer on his best days and arrives in reasonable form having shown consistency in recent starts.
- 5Clay Pigeons53/100Clay Pigeons has won both completed starts and drops back to the trip where he is one from one.
- 6Chantilly Wings53/100Useful performer who has run to form on all but one of his seven starts and finished a clear second at Ballinrobe last time.
- 7Minella Hollow52/100Minella Hollow won on his only previous visit to Roscommon and has a win at today's trip from two attempts.
- 8Whoyougonnacall50/100Useful performer who has shown some ability on his three completed starts.
- 9Speisialta49/100Speisialta has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing tailed off on his most recent outing.
- 10Saviour Blu49/100Saviour Blu has shown very little in three starts, failing to complete or place on both visits to this track.
- 11William F Browne48/100Placed once in three runs here and showed his best effort when runner-up on the last visit.
- 12Kilmond Knight46/100Kilmond Knight has shown very little so far with a recent sequence of P-U0 from just two career starts.
- 13Glenmore Graduate45/100Glenmore Graduate has shown very little so far with two pulled-up efforts on the Flat and a modest hurdling debut.
- 14Ataboymiley43/100Ataboymiley is a debutant with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 15Goeasyonme43/100Goeasyonme is a debutant so the form picture is blank and the assessment rests entirely on limited pedigree and sales information.
- 16Le Roi Arthur42/100Le Roi Arthur has shown modest form in two completed starts since a point-to-point pull-up, finishing no better than fourth.
- 17Captain Hanley41/100Useful performer who has been knocking on the door this season with a second and two sixths from his last four starts.
- 18Prophetess Miriam40/100Prophetess Miriam has shown fair form when placed twice at this trip earlier in her career but has been well below that level on both starts this season.
- 19Haughty38/100Haughty has a modest career record with two pulled-up efforts on his last two starts and steps up markedly in trip today as a fresh question.
The contenders
Direct Approach KTB Fit 57/100
Direct Approach is a useful performer who has shown steady progress, finishing third in a decent handicap at Down Royal last time after a poor debut effort. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question. Gordon Elliott has a solid 17% strike rate from 296 runs at Roscommon while Jack Kennedy is aboard with a 17% strike rate and A/E 0.92 from 65 rides at the track. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late with high confidence in that run-style. He has been placed once from four starts on good ground but remains without a win on that surface and has no course form on record. Overall the KTB Fit of 57 marks him out as the selection.
Leva Deva KTB Fit 55/100
Leva Deva has shown little so far with two poor efforts and a pulled-up run this year. The drop back in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with only two runs on the clock. Darren Collins has an 11% strike rate from nine runs at Roscommon while Jack Gilligan has limited experience here and a neutral score. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late with medium confidence in that run-style. He has had two runs on good ground without winning or placing and has no course form on record. The KTB Fit of 55 reflects the lack of encouragement from what has been seen to date.
John Gun KTB Fit 54/100
John Gun is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues to his ability and the low data confidence means any firm conclusions are impossible. Kieran Purcell has a solid 10% strike-rate from 29 runs at Roscommon. By Bathyrhon, he has a 12% overall win rate in his sire's progeny from 1020 runners. He has no course win on record. The KTB Fit of 54 reflects the complete absence of form lines.
Earthwatch KTB Fit 54/100
Earthwatch is a useful performer on his best days and arrives in reasonable form having shown consistency in recent starts with form figures of 4-4C4. He has a solid record on good ground with a win and a placing from six attempts but drops back in trip today to something he has never tried, which asks a fresh question. Denis Gerard Hogan has a modest 5% strike-rate from 207 runs at Roscommon while Darragh O'Keeffe has a 12% strike rate and A/E 0.99 from 93 rides at the track; the pair are 1-5 together. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late with high confidence in that run-style. He has no course form on record. The KTB Fit of 54 leaves him in the mix but the trainer's local record is a negative.
Clay Pigeons KTB Fit 53/100
Clay Pigeons has won both completed starts and drops back to the trip where he is one from one with form figures of 11/12-. Willie Mullins posts a solid 22% strike rate at Roscommon from 292 runs while Brian Hayes has a 7% strike rate and A/E 0.88 from 73 rides at the track; the pair are 63-562 together with an A/E of 0.84. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late with medium confidence in that run-style. First-time headgear is now fitted on a horse with only three career runs and he has no runs on good ground so remains unproven on the surface. He has no course form on record. The KTB Fit of 53 reflects a picture that is still tentative.
The rest of the field
Chantilly WingsKTB Fit 53/100
Chantilly Wings is a useful performer who has run to form on all but one of his seven starts and finished a clear second at Ballinrobe last time with form figures of 4345-2. He has already placed over this trip and was a solid third here on his only previous visit to Roscommon. First-time headgear is an unknown and the trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at the track from 27 runs is another negative. Usually held up with medium confidence, he has been placed once from two runs on good ground.
Minella HollowKTB Fit 52/100
Minella Hollow won on his only previous visit to Roscommon and has a win at today's trip from two attempts with form figures of 14/43-. He also has a solid record on good ground with a win and a place from two starts and drops back in distance after his latest run over further. The yard has a fair 17% strike-rate at the track from 24 runs. Usually held up with low confidence given limited evidence.
WhoyougonnacallKTB Fit 50/100
Whoyougonnacall is a useful performer who has shown some ability on his three completed starts with form figures of 8-F43. He ran respectably when fourth over this course and trip on his most recent outing yet has failed to place in two previous attempts at today's distance. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Roscommon from 103 runs adds a note of caution. Usually races prominently with medium confidence.
SpeisialtaKTB Fit 49/100
Speisialta has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing tailed off on his most recent outing with form figures of 4-R0. He now drops back in trip with first-time headgear applied but the small sample makes it impossible to gauge whether the changes will help. Trainer and jockey both have too few runs at Roscommon to form any reliable view. Tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
Saviour BluKTB Fit 49/100
Saviour Blu has shown very little in three starts, failing to complete or place on both visits to this track with form figures of 0-U0. The first-time headgear is an obvious attempt to spark some improvement in a horse that remains low on hard evidence. Trainer strike-rate here is modest from 59 runs and the small-sample data means any judgement has to be cautious. He has had two runs on good ground without placing.
William F BrowneKTB Fit 48/100
William F Browne has been placed once in three runs here and showed his best effort when runner-up on the last visit with form figures of 7R5. He drops back in trip today having been running over 2m plus lately, which asks a fresh question of him. First-time headgear is another unknown on a horse whose modest record on good ground from 12 starts leaves him with plenty to find. Usually held up with medium confidence.
Kilmond KnightKTB Fit 46/100
Kilmond Knight has shown very little so far with a recent sequence of P-U0 from just two career starts. The drop back in trip to an untried 1m7½f poses a fresh question. Trainer has only one run at Roscommon which is too small a sample to judge while data confidence remains low given the limited evidence. Usually held up with low confidence.
Glenmore GraduateKTB Fit 45/100
Glenmore Graduate has shown very little so far with two pulled-up efforts on the Flat and a modest hurdling debut with form figures of PP-790. The drop back from 2m7f to an untried 1m7½f poses a fresh question while the small sample means both going and overall ability remain unknown. Trainer Peter Maher has a 0% strike rate from 20 runs at Roscommon. Typically settles in midfield with low confidence.
AtaboymileyKTB Fit 43/100
Ataboymiley is a debutant with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The yard's record at Roscommon is modest with a 3 percent strike rate from 172 runs. Data confidence is low given the complete lack of prior form. By Pearl Secret, he has a 10% overall win rate in his sire's progeny from 869 runners.
GoeasyonmeKTB Fit 43/100
Goeasyonme is a debutant so the form picture is blank and the assessment rests entirely on limited pedigree and sales information. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate from 103 runs at Roscommon which adds no encouragement. Connections will be hoping the horse shows enough on this first start to build from. By Montmartre, he has a 12% overall win rate in his sire's progeny from 2368 runners.
Le Roi ArthurKTB Fit 42/100
Le Roi Arthur has shown modest form in two completed starts since a point-to-point pull-up, finishing no better than fourth with form figures of P/439-. He drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact over this distance on his only previous attempt. Both trainer and jockey have too few runs at Roscommon to draw any firm conclusions. Tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence and has been placed once from one run on good ground.
Captain HanleyKTB Fit 41/100
Captain Hanley is a useful performer who has been knocking on the door this season with a second and two sixths from his last four starts with form figures of 2U26. He has shown little on his only previous visit to Roscommon and is yet to win or place on good ground from six attempts. First-time headgear is now reached for as he drops back in trip. Usually held up with high confidence.
Prophetess MiriamKTB Fit 40/100
Prophetess Miriam has shown fair form when placed twice at this trip earlier in her career but has been well below that level on both starts this season with form figures of 224-89. She now drops back from 2m5f with first-time headgear applied. The trainer has a modest 4% strike-rate from 27 runs at Roscommon. Usually held up with low confidence and remains unproven on good ground.
HaughtyKTB Fit 38/100
Haughty has a modest career record with two pulled-up efforts on his last two starts and steps up markedly in trip today as a fresh question with form figures of PP/. He has shown ability on good ground with a win and two places from nine runs but the yard has a poor 0% strike rate from 15 runs at Roscommon. This first appearance at the track carries no strong pointers either way. Usually held up with high confidence.
KTB verdict
Direct Approach is the KTB Selection. A useful performer who has shown steady progress and finished a clear third in a decent handicap at Down Royal last time, he represents a yard with a solid record at Roscommon and has the run-style to benefit if the anticipated strong pace collapses late. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question but his overall profile fits the race best. Main dangers include the lightly raced Clay Pigeons from the Mullins yard, the consistent Earthwatch, and the course winner Minella Hollow who has the right run-style for the shape.
KTB Selection Direct Approach
This is the narrative read of the 6:00 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runners are likely to set or contest the strong pace?
Speisialta and Le Roi Arthur tend to make the running or race on the pace while Whoyougonnacall usually races prominently.
How many horses are dropping back in trip to a distance they have never tried?
Direct Approach, Leva Deva, Earthwatch, William F Browne, Kilmond Knight, Glenmore Graduate and Captain Hanley are all dropping back in trip to a distance they have never tried.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Clay Pigeons, Chantilly Wings, Speisialta, Saviour Blu, William F Browne, Captain Hanley, Prophetess Miriam and Haughty are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which horse has the best trainer strike-rate at Roscommon among the principals?
Clay Pigeons represents W P Mullins who has a 22% strike rate at Roscommon from 292 runs.
Which horses have previous placed form at Roscommon?
Chantilly Wings has been placed once here, Minella Hollow has won here, Whoyougonnacall has been fourth here, William F Browne has been placed once here, Saviour Blu has been unplaced on both visits here and Captain Hanley has been fifth here.
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