3:40 Thirsk
This Class 5 5f handicap at Thirsk on good ground features a small but competitive field of six modest performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with J Street and Military Girl both on 53, followed by Qila on 50 and Vince L'Amour on 49, indicating little to separate the principals on pure numbers. Recent form is mixed across the board, with several runners dropping in class and others sporting first-time headgear in what looks an open affair.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to Azuinthejungle being allowed an uncontested lead from his front-running style. The other five runners are all held-up types who produce their effort late, meaning the race is likely to develop into a test of whether the leader can get away or if the closers can reel him in. The key question is whether that clear advantage up front will prove decisive on this track, especially with so many horses waiting to pounce from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1J Street KTB Selection53/100Modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed his best at this trip when winning earlier in the season.
- 2Military Girl53/100Modest performer who has won once from three runs at Thirsk and holds a solid 4-3-1 record at this trip.
- 3Qila50/100Modest performer who showed a bit more when second on reappearance at this trip last month before a lesser effort at Musselburgh.
- 4Vince L'Amour49/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 5Glory Fighter42/100Modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 6Azuinthejungle39/100Modest performer who has been in decent heart of late with two wins in the last four starts.
The contenders
J Street KTB Fit 53/100
J Street is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year yet showed his best at this trip when winning earlier in the season. He is held up and usually produces his effort late, a style that could be disadvantaged by the expected uncontested lead up front. The Easterby yard posts an 8% strike rate at Thirsk from 119 runs with an A/E of 0.85, while Billy Garritty has an 11% strike rate at the track from 92 rides with an A/E of 0.98. He has only run once at Thirsk, finishing fifth, and has failed to win or place in three attempts on good ground. Recent form of 351414 underlines his patchy profile, but he is the KTB Selection and enters with a Fit Score of 53.
Military Girl KTB Fit 53/100
Military Girl is another modest performer who has won once from three runs at Thirsk and holds a solid 4-3-1 record at this trip. She arrives in decent form having placed in her last two starts and acts on good ground with one win from eight attempts and three places. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need to bridge the expected gap to the clear leader. Trainer Michael Dods has a 10% strike rate at Thirsk from a large sample of 1147 runs with an A/E of 0.87, though the trainer-jockey combination shows 11% from 2101 rides with an A/E of 0.79. Her recent form of 4-3112 gives her strong claims and she shares a KTB Fit Score of 53 with the selection.
Qila KTB Fit 50/100
Qila is a modest three-year-old performer who showed a bit more when second on reappearance at this trip last month before a lesser effort at Musselburgh. Dropping in class now, first-time headgear is fitted in a bid to spark improvement. Run-style is held up with medium confidence, again leaving him with work to do if the leader gets an easy time. The Brian Ellison yard has a 10% strike rate at Thirsk from 331 runs with an A/E of 1.05, though Ben Robinson is on 5% from 178 rides with an A/E of 0.66. He is unproven on good ground with no runs on the surface and has no course form on record. Recent form reads 54-20 and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 50.
Vince L'Amour KTB Fit 49/100
Vince L'Amour is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has won at this trip but his record on good ground is only moderate with two wins from 20 attempts and six places, while he has shown little at Thirsk in two runs. Usually held up with medium confidence, first-time headgear is now applied as he drops in class. Tim Easterby has an 8% strike rate at the track from a huge sample of 2156 runs with an A/E of 0.75, and David Allan posts 11% from 989 rides with an A/E of 0.92. Recent form of 006790 tells its own story and he has a KTB Fit Score of 49.
The rest of the field
Glory FighterKTB Fit 42/100
Glory Fighter is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track with one win from five runs here. Recent form of 831506 is patchy but he has shown enough on good ground in the past, with three wins from 19 attempts and four places, to stay competitive at this level. Usually held up, the Paul Midgley yard has an 8% strike rate at Thirsk from 510 runs with an A/E of 0.86 and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 42.
AzuinthejungleKTB Fit 39/100
Azuinthejungle is a modest performer who has been in decent heart of late with two wins in the last four starts and holds winning form at this trip. Usually a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is the one set to enjoy the uncontested lead according to the pace shape. He has only modest form on good ground with two places from nine runs and was well held when tried here once before. Nigel Tinkler's record at Thirsk is a modest 5% from 623 runs with an A/E of 0.69 and the KTB Fit Score is 39.
KTB verdict
The race revolves around whether the expected lone leader can capitalise on an easy lead or if one of the held-up performers can close the gap on good ground at Thirsk. J Street is the KTB Selection; although he has only run once at the track and is yet to win or place on good ground, his ability at this trip when on song and the way the race is likely to be run from the front make him the one to beat on the numbers. Military Girl is the obvious danger given her course record, solid recent form and proven ability on the surface, while Qila and Vince L'Amour both drop in class with first-time headgear and cannot be entirely dismissed despite their respective drawbacks.
KTB Selection J Street
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to get the uncontested lead?
Azuinthejungle, as the sole front-runner in a pace shape rated with high confidence as a lone leader.
How many of the six runners are rated as held-up types?
Five of the six runners are held up and produce their effort late.
Which runner is dropping in class and wearing first-time headgear?
Both Qila and Vince L'Amour are dropping in class and are fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse has the best recent course record at Thirsk?
Military Girl, who has won once from three runs here.
On what ground is Qila unproven?
Good ground, with no runs on the surface recorded.
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