3:10 Thirsk
This Class 5 fillies' nursery over 7f at Thirsk on good ground brings together a compact field of seven two-year-olds, most of whom are dropping in class after modest performances. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 58 and 44, reflecting a race where recent progress, course knowledge and trip suitability will be key rather than any standout ability. Bymiddaytomorrow tops the KTB rankings on the back of a recent win and holds the strongest recent race history in the line-up.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with only medium confidence. Gerry's Darling is the most likely to take the field along from stall five having shown front-running tendencies, while Bymiddaytomorrow is expected to race prominently from the inside draw. The remainder of the field, including Love Tanya, Consultation, Bonjour Belle, Priscilla's Hope and Spirit of Mary, are all held-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the early gallop will be strong enough to give the closers a realistic chance or whether the prominent runners can dictate matters on this relatively sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Bymiddaytomorrow KTB Selection58/100Modest performer who has already won once over this trip from a single attempt.
- 2Love Tanya53/100Modest performer who has shown some ability in two starts, finishing third on debut then second over this trip at this track last time.
- 3Gerry's Darling52/100Modest performer who showed clear improvement when winning a similar race here last time.
- 4Consultation51/100Modest performer who has shown consistent form in three runs over 6f, finishing third on each occasion.
- 5Bonjour Belle50/100Limited performer who has shown little in three runs at this trip.
- 6Priscilla's Hope48/100Priscilla's Hope is a limited filly who has shown ordinary form across her five runs, most recently finishing fifth of eight.
- 7Spirit of Mary44/100Spirit of Mary has shown fair placed form on her last two starts including a third here over 6f.
The contenders
Bymiddaytomorrow KTB Fit 58/100
Bymiddaytomorrow is a modest performer who has already won once over this trip from a single attempt. Her recent form of 6581 shows steady improvement capped by a success last time, while the yard posts a solid 24% strike rate at Thirsk from 41 runs. Stall one looks ideal and the horse brings the strongest recent race history to the table. Ed Walker and Ashley Lewis combine with a 12/52 (23%) record and A/E 1.09, though the jockey is still seeking a first Thirsk winner from just one previous ride. She is unproven on good ground and has no previous course form, yet the drop in class and prominent run-style from a good draw make her the one to beat.
Love Tanya KTB Fit 53/100
Love Tanya is a modest performer who has shown some ability in two starts, finishing third on debut then second over this trip at this track last time. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate here from a decent-sized sample. Trip seems to suit but the going remains an unknown with so few runs behind her. Edward Bethell and Oisin Orr have a 6/31 (19%) record together with an A/E of 1.19. She is dropping in class from stall seven and will be held up to produce her effort late. A placed effort on her only previous visit to Thirsk adds a positive note to her claims.
Gerry's Darling KTB Fit 52/100
Gerry's Darling is a modest performer who showed clear improvement when winning a similar race here last time. That success came on this going and at this trip, so the conditions look ideal. Trainer's modest record at the track is a slight negative. Roger Fell and Kevin Stott team up with a 6/57 (11%) record and A/E 0.73. She tends to make the running or race on the pace, though evidence for that is limited. The filly is dropping in class from draw five and has shown she can act on good ground with one win from one attempt.
Consultation KTB Fit 51/100
Consultation is a modest performer who has shown consistent form in three runs over 6f, finishing third on each occasion. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer James Fanshawe has a solid 22% strike rate at Thirsk from 105 runs while jockey Kaiya Fraser is unproven at the track. The pair combine with an 8/48 (17%) record and A/E 0.89. He will be held up in rear and is placed on his only start on good ground so far. Dropping in class from stall six, he remains a largely consistent but unproven quantity at the new trip.
The rest of the field
Bonjour BelleKTB Fit 50/100
Bonjour Belle is a limited performer who has shown little in three runs at this trip. The yard has a solid 10% strike-rate at Thirsk from a big sample. Lightly raced so going suitability remains unknown.
Priscilla's HopeKTB Fit 48/100
Priscilla's Hope is a limited filly who has shown ordinary form across her five runs, most recently finishing fifth of eight. She steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question. The trainer holds a 20% strike rate at Thirsk from five runs.
Spirit of MaryKTB Fit 44/100
Spirit of Mary has shown fair placed form on her last two starts including a third here over 6f. She steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of this limited performer. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Thirsk from 130 runs offers no particular encouragement.
KTB verdict
Bymiddaytomorrow is the KTB Selection. She arrives with the strongest recent race history after a clear last-time-out success over today's trip, is dropping in class, and has the ideal prominent style from stall one for a yard that operates at a 24% strike rate at Thirsk. The drop back to this level should suit after her progressive form figures of 6581. Main dangers are Love Tanya, who has shown promise in both starts including a second over course and distance, and Gerry's Darling, who won a similar event here last time on this ground. Consultation cannot be entirely dismissed if the step up to 7f brings further improvement from his consistent placed efforts.
KTB Selection Bymiddaytomorrow
This is the narrative read of the 3:10 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent form in the race?
Bymiddaytomorrow, whose figures of 6581 are capped by a win last time and represent the strongest recent race history.
How does the pace shape look for this 7f nursery?
Pace is tentative with only medium confidence. Gerry's Darling may go forward while Bymiddaytomorrow races prominently; the rest are held-up types.
Which runners are proven on good ground?
Gerry's Darling has one win from one run on good, Consultation is placed once from one run on good, and Spirit of Mary is placed once from two runs on good. The remainder are unproven.
Who holds the strongest trainer record at Thirsk in this field?
Ed Walker with a 24% strike rate from 41 runs; James Fanshawe is next best on 22% from 105 runs.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Consultation, Priscilla's Hope and Spirit of Mary are all moving up to 7f having raced exclusively over 6f so far.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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