2:45 Ascot
The Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge is a competitive Class 2 handicap over 1m3f211y at Ascot on good to firm ground. A field of twelve useful performers lines up, with the KTB Fit ratings tightly bunched at the top end and several horses possessing strong course records. The numbers point to a race that will test stamina as well as class, with the strong pace anticipated likely to play a significant part in the outcome.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, including Claymore, Genealogy and Sportingsilvermine, the pace shape is strong and the race is expected to be run at a solid gallop from early on. This should set things up for the hold-up performers, several of whom are drawn towards the centre and outer, to come through late as the leaders potentially tire. The key question is whether the prominent and front-running types can dictate matters or if the race will collapse in the straight, allowing the patient riders to capitalise.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Frances Ethel KTB Selection64/100Frances Ethel is a useful performer with solid recent form including a second on her penultimate start.
- 2Fantasy Believer63/100Fantasy Believer is a fair nine-year-old who has won twice from six runs at Ascot and arrives in reasonable form having shown his best this year when fourth at…
- 3Claymore63/100Claymore is a useful performer who has won over this trip and shown his liking for Ascot with a victory from three runs here.
- 4Genealogy61/100Fair performer who has shown some ability at this track with a placed effort from one run.
- 5Insanity60/100Useful performer who has won at this trip and at this track from four runs.
- 6Night Breeze60/100Useful performer who has won two of three starts at Ascot and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with three wins from five runs.
- 7Sportingsilvermine57/100Sportingsilvermine is a useful performer with a solid recent record that includes three wins in the last six outings.
- 8Castle Stuart57/100Castle Stuart is a useful performer who has been consistent at this level lately, finishing second in two of his last three starts.
- 9Enemy54/100Enemy is a useful performer who has won twice at today's trip and shown he can be competitive on good to firm ground.
- 10Asgard's Captain50/100Useful performer who has been mixing it at this level for a while and arrives in reasonable nick judged on his recent efforts.
- 11Parlando45/100Fair performer who has been inconsistent this year and is making his first visit to Ascot.
- 12Stem44/100Fair performer who showed his best effort when second over 1m2f here last time.
The contenders
Frances Ethel KTB Fit 64/100
Frances Ethel is a useful performer with solid recent form that includes a second on her penultimate start. She steps up in trip today having not been asked to go beyond 1m2f so far, which poses a fresh question. William Haggas has a 13% strike rate at Ascot from 862 runs while C Y Ho boasts a 20% strike rate at the track from only five rides and an A/E of 1.65. She usually races handily on or close to the lead and arrives off the back of form figures of 9/952-. The mare has no experience of good to firm ground or of the Ascot course itself.
Fantasy Believer KTB Fit 63/100
Fantasy Believer is a fair nine-year-old who has won twice from six runs at Ascot and arrives in reasonable form having shown his best this year when fourth at Newmarket. He has only one win from six runs on good to firm ground and has failed to place in two starts at this trip, so both those questions remain open. Ed Walker posts a 13% strike rate at the track from 256 runs while Saffie Osborne has a 15% strike rate at Ascot from 141 rides and an A/E of 1.62. Their partnership shows a 54/333 (16%) record with an A/E of 1.07. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has course-and-distance winning form.
Claymore KTB Fit 63/100
Claymore is a useful performer who has won over this trip and shown his liking for Ascot with a victory from three runs here. He has three wins from eight starts on good to firm ground. Jane Chapple-Hyam holds a 9% strike rate at the track from 139 runs while Jerry Chau has no record at Ascot. Recent form has been patchy though and a wide draw in stall 12 will not make life easy. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and his form figures read 778518.
Genealogy KTB Fit 61/100
Genealogy is a fair performer who has shown some ability at this track with a placed effort from one run. Dropping back from 2m should suit after a couple of modest efforts this year and the first-time headgear is a possible plus. Faye Bramley has a 33% strike rate at Ascot from three runs while the horse has one win and one place from two starts on good to firm. Usually to the fore, he steps up in class having recorded form figures of /88-50.
Insanity KTB Fit 60/100
Insanity is a useful performer who has won at this trip and at this track from four runs. Recent form has been a bit patchy but the figures still stack up in this company and he handles good to firm well enough with two places from four starts. Alan King has a 13% strike rate at Ascot from 463 runs while the jockey has a 0% strike rate from six rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form reads 220-20.
The rest of the field
Night BreezeKTB Fit 60/100
Night Breeze is a useful performer who has won two of three starts at Ascot and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with three wins from five runs. Steps up in trip today having last run over a mile and a quarter yet has won six times from 13 starts at this distance so the extra yardage looks no hardship. First-time headgear is the unknown and the trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the track from 348 runs is another negative.
SportingsilvermineKTB Fit 57/100
Sportingsilvermine is a useful performer with a solid recent record that includes three wins in the last six outings. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance and holds a good record on good to firm ground with two wins and four places from six starts. The yard has an 8 percent strike rate from 50 runs at Ascot while this is the horse's first visit to the track.
Castle StuartKTB Fit 57/100
Castle Stuart is a useful performer who has been consistent at this level lately, finishing second in two of his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having shown only modest form when tried at this distance before, while the switch to Ascot marks his first run here. The Fahey team have a modest 9% strike rate at the track from 11 runs.
EnemyKTB Fit 54/100
Enemy is a useful performer who has won twice at today's trip and shown he can be competitive on good to firm ground. He has placed once from six runs at Ascot without winning and his recent form has been patchy. Ian Williams has an 8 percent strike rate here from 348 runs while this is the first time the jockey has ridden at the track.
Asgard's CaptainKTB Fit 50/100
Asgard's Captain is a useful performer who has been mixing it at this level for a while and arrives in reasonable nick judged on his recent efforts. He has run just once at Ascot and finished fifth, while the trainer operates at a 6% strike rate here from 33 runs. Drops back in trip today having won three times over this distance in the past, though he has only one win from five runs on good to firm ground.
ParlandoKTB Fit 45/100
Parlando is a fair performer who has been inconsistent this year and is making his first visit to Ascot. He has shown he can handle good to firm ground with two wins from six runs and has been placed once in four starts at today's trip. Trainer Ian Williams holds an 8% strike rate at the track from 348 runs.
StemKTB Fit 44/100
Stem is a fair performer who showed his best effort when second over 1m2f here last time. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question, though he has already tried this distance once without success. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Ascot from a big sample is another negative.
KTB verdict
Frances Ethel is the KTB Selection. She is a useful performer with solid recent form and the booking of C Y Ho, who has an excellent A/E at the track, adds to the appeal despite the step up in trip and the lack of experience on good to firm. The strong pace should suit her prominent style if she can see out the distance. Main dangers are Fantasy Believer, who loves the Ascot track, and the course winner Claymore, though both carry their own questions. Insanity and Night Breeze are others with strong claims on their Ascot records.
KTB Selection Frances Ethel
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time beyond 1m2f?
Frances Ethel
How many wins has Fantasy Believer recorded at Ascot?
Two from six runs
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Genealogy, Night Breeze and Enemy
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Ascot in the field?
Genealogy with a 33% strike rate from three runs
Who is the only horse in the race to have won over the course and distance?
Fantasy Believer
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