4:19 Redcar
A Class 6 classified stakes over the minimum 5f at Redcar on good to firm ground brings together eight limited performers, most of whom have struggled to get their heads in front in recent times. The KTB Fit scores reflect a race lacking depth, with Ellie's de Vega heading the numbers on 57 while the remainder cluster between 48 and 33. With a lone-leader pace shape rated as highly likely, the ability to get an uncontested lead could prove decisive on a track where front-runners often prove hard to reel in.
How the race shapes up
The pace map points to a lone leader scenario with high confidence, as only one horse is inclined to take the race by the scruff from the front while the other seven are all held-up types who look to produce their efforts from off the pace. This sets up an uncontested lead that could be difficult for the closers to bridge, particularly over the minimum trip on good to firm. The key question is whether the prominent runner can dictate terms throughout and fend off the late challengers, or if one of the hold-up brigade can summon a telling turn of foot in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ellie's de Vega KTB Selection57/100Limited performer who has been consistent at this level without winning, placing on both runs at today's trip and on good to firm ground.
- 2Let's Go Hugo48/100Limited performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely finds the winner's circle.
- 3Gwen Tennyson44/100Limited performer who has shown just flashes of ability in eight starts this year.
- 4Pinpoint43/100Limited performer who has shown some spark at this trip, winning three times from 18 starts.
- 5Doralee41/100Doralee is a limited performer who has been consistent enough this year to place three times from her last six starts.
- 6Bust A Moon40/100Limited horse who has shown very little in 22 starts and arrives here with a recent best of only third in a weak Wolverhampton handicap.
- 7Up The Monk37/100Limited class performer who has been largely out of form this year and showed little at this track on his only previous visit.
- 8Brave Bob33/100Limited performer who has shown just one placed effort in his last five starts and remains winless after 12 runs.
The contenders
Ellie's de Vega KTB Fit 57/100
Ellie's de Vega is a limited performer who has been consistent at this level without winning, placing on both runs at today's trip and on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now tried after a string of minor efforts. The Philip Kirby yard operates at a 9% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.95 from 176 runs, while Cieren Fallon brings a strong 22% strike rate at the track from 64 rides. She tends to make the running or race prominently, which looks ideal given the projected lone-leader shape. Placed twice from two starts on good to firm, she arrives in solid enough form having shown up in six of her last seven outings, though she is yet to record a course visit.
Let's Go Hugo KTB Fit 48/100
Let's Go Hugo is a limited performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely finds the winner's circle. He has placed at this track but his seven runs here read modestly overall and the yard's poor recent record at Redcar adds little encouragement. Ollie Pears and Harry Russell combine with an 11% strike rate from 241 runners and an A/E of 1.02, though the trainer's individual 4% strike rate at the course from 233 runs is a concern. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he stays this minimum trip and has handled good to firm, recording one win from 13 starts on the surface with five places. The overall profile remains one of a consistent under-achiever.
Gwen Tennyson KTB Fit 44/100
Gwen Tennyson is a limited performer who has shown just flashes of ability in eight starts this year. She has managed a couple of placed efforts at this trip on good to firm but has been below that level on her last two outings. Gemma Tutty and William Pyle team up with a 7% strike rate from 27 runners and an A/E of 0.93, while the yard's 8% strike rate at Redcar from 51 runs and the jockey's 10% from 69 rides are both modest. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has no course form on record and will need to rediscover her best to figure prominently.
Pinpoint KTB Fit 43/100
Pinpoint is a limited performer who has shown some spark at this trip, winning three times from 18 starts. Placed on three of five runs on good to firm and finished third on his only previous visit to Redcar, he arrives with recent efforts that suggest he remains competitive at this level. Suzzanne France has a modest 3% strike rate at the track from 32 runs with an A/E of 0.62, but the 5lb claimer Tom Kiely-Marshall brings an 11% strike rate from 38 rides and an A/E of 0.94. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has the benefit of a low draw in stall two which could be useful if the race develops as expected.
The rest of the field
DoraleeKTB Fit 41/100
Doralee is a limited performer who has been consistent enough this year to place three times from her last six starts. She has won over both course and trip though her overall strike rate is modest and the yard's record here is below par with a 7% strike rate from 88 runs and an A/E of 0.6; she will need to improve on recent efforts to be competitive from stall one.
Bust A MoonKTB Fit 40/100
Bust A Moon is a limited horse who has shown very little in 22 starts and arrives here with a recent best of only third in a weak Wolverhampton handicap. First-time headgear is tried in an attempt to spark improvement but the yard and jockey are both 0% at Redcar from large samples; has won on good to firm and at this trip yet that positive is outweighed by overall modest form.
Up The MonkKTB Fit 37/100
Up The Monk is a limited class performer who has been largely out of form this year and showed little at this track on his only previous visit. Drops back to an untried 5f for the first time while wearing first-time headgear, which adds uncertainty; trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here.
Brave BobKTB Fit 33/100
Brave Bob is a limited performer who has shown just one placed effort in his last five starts and remains winless after 12 runs. He has been below form on both previous tries on good to firm ground and has failed to place in three runs at Redcar; first-time headgear is now applied but the yard and rider both have modest strike rates here.
KTB verdict
The projected uncontested lead and the pace shape make this an interesting assignment for the front-running types. Ellie's de Vega is the KTB Selection; she has been consistently placing at this level, goes well on good to firm, and now dons first-time headgear while drawn to get an uncontested lead. The selection has the strongest recent profile among a modest bunch and her prominent running style should suit the shape. Main dangers are Let's Go Hugo, who has course placings and stays the trip, and the pair of hold-up performers Pinpoint and Doralee who have both shown ability on good to firm and at Redcar.
KTB Selection Ellie's de Vega
This is the narrative read of the 4:19 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Ellie's de Vega tends to make the running or race on the pace and the pace shape is rated as a lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the field are held-up runners?
Seven of the eight runners are held-up types who usually produce their effort late.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Ellie's de Vega, Bust A Moon, Up The Monk and Brave Bob are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Redcar in this race?
Cieren Fallon has a 22% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1 from 64 rides.
Which horse has won over course and distance?
Doralee has won here over 5f.
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