3:43 Downpatrick
The 3:43 at Downpatrick is a mares handicap hurdle over an extended two and a half miles on good ground. A field of twelve runners lines up, with the KTB numbers highlighting a competitive but rather one-sided pace profile that could make things difficult for those racing from off the pace. Samba Train heads the Fit ratings at 68 and is the clear KTB Selection, though several others sit close behind on figures and bring strong course or trip credentials.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one horse getting an uncontested lead that will be hard for closers to reel in. Cobra Queen is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and should be allowed to bowl along in front. The remainder, including the selection Samba Train, are almost all held-up types who will be produced late, so the key question is whether any of them can close the gap on a clear leader on this stiff track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Samba Train KTB Selection68/100Smart performer who won a maiden hurdle at Punchestown last time before unseating in a stronger race.
- 2Shannon Bank66/100Useful performer who showed his best form when winning at this track last time.
- 3Joya Del Mar63/100Smart performer with solid course connections, having won twice here from seven runs and showing consistent form this year with two wins and a third from her la…
- 4Cobra Queen61/100Smart performer who has placed here before and holds strong claims on ratings.
- 5Billie Frechette61/100Smart performer who has been a model of consistency round here and ran a solid second over 2m on his only previous visit to Downpatrick.
- 6Camlin Park61/100Camlin Park is a smart performer who won on his only previous visit to Downpatrick and has scored once from two runs on good ground.
- 7Gangster Granny59/100Smart performer with a solid record here, having won two of five starts at Downpatrick including a recent success.
- 8Poetic Twist58/100Smart performer with a solid recent record of 22-212 and strong ratings to match.
- 9Theflyingbee55/100Theflyingbee is a smart performer with strong course connections, having won his only start here.
- 10Oh Janey52/100Oh Janey is a useful performer who has already won over this course and looks suited by the track.
- 11Miss Lia42/100Miss Lia is a useful performer who has placed at this track and at today's trip, though she is yet to win at either.
- 12Steps In The Sand40/100Useful performer who has run well enough in recent starts without winning.
The contenders
Samba Train KTB Fit 68/100
Samba Train is a smart performer who won a maiden hurdle at Punchestown last time before unseating in a stronger race. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question though he has already shown he handles good ground. The trainer strikes at 20% here from 49 runs while the jockey also knows the track well. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the leader to come back to him in a race with an uncontested pace. His recent form of 614-1U underlines progressive ability and he arrives with a KTB Fit of 68 as the selection.
Shannon Bank KTB Fit 66/100
Shannon Bank is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning at this track last time. He has a solid 38% strike-rate with trainer Andrew Kinirons at Downpatrick yet is 0-5 on good ground and was well held when tried over this sort of distance previously. Jockey Daniel King has limited experience here. Usually held up, he will be giving the clear leader a significant start and must hope the pace collapses. With a KTB Fit of 66 he remains a major player on his course win but the going and trip both raise doubts.
Joya Del Mar KTB Fit 63/100
Joya Del Mar is a smart performer with solid course connections, having won twice here from seven runs and showing consistent form this year with two wins and a third from her last four starts. She has also won at today's trip and handles good ground, though her overall strike rate on it is modest. First-time headgear is now added. Usually held up, she will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get away. Her course record and recent form make her a serious contender with a KTB Fit of 63.
Cobra Queen KTB Fit 61/100
Cobra Queen is a smart performer who has placed here before and holds strong claims on ratings. Three wins from four starts at today's trip is a clear plus while she also has a solid record on good ground. First-time headgear is the unknown today. The only front-runner in the field, she is set to get an uncontested lead according to the pace shape and that could prove decisive at this track. With a KTB Fit of 61 she is well equipped to make full use of the run-style advantage.
Billie Frechette KTB Fit 61/100
Billie Frechette is a smart performer who has been a model of consistency round here and ran a solid second over 2m on his only previous visit to Downpatrick. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him and the first-time headgear is another unknown. Noel Meade has a strong 23% strike rate at the track while the 7 lb claimer is less established here. Usually held up, he will need the leader to come back in a race with a clear pace advantage to the front. His KTB Fit of 61 keeps him in the mix on course form.
The rest of the field
Camlin ParkKTB Fit 61/100
Camlin Park is a smart performer who won on his only previous visit to Downpatrick and has scored once from two runs on good ground. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m, which asks a fresh question of him, while first-time headgear is also applied. The yard holds a 12% strike rate here from a large sample.
Gangster GrannyKTB Fit 59/100
Gangster Granny is a smart performer with a solid record here, having won two of five starts at Downpatrick including a recent success. Four wins from nine runs on good ground and two from five at today's trip underline his effectiveness under these conditions. First-time headgear is the unknown and the trainer's modest 8% strike-rate at the track is a negative.
Poetic TwistKTB Fit 58/100
Poetic Twist is a smart performer with a solid recent record of 22-212 and strong ratings to match. Steps up in trip today having already won at this distance on his only attempt, and the good ground looks ideal given his 1-from-1 record on it. Gordon Elliott has an 18% strike rate here from a huge sample while Jack Kennedy is aboard.
TheflyingbeeKTB Fit 55/100
Theflyingbee is a smart performer with strong course connections, having won his only start here. He arrives in solid form after a recent second and boasts a consistent recent record, though he has yet to win or place in four runs on good ground. Stepping up in trip for the first time in a while asks a fresh question of him.
Oh JaneyKTB Fit 52/100
Oh Janey is a useful performer who has already won over this course and looks suited by the track. She has been competitive on good ground without winning and is now tried in first-time headgear after two modest runs this season. The trip remains a question as she has failed to place in her only attempt at this distance.
Miss LiaKTB Fit 42/100
Miss Lia is a useful performer who has placed at this track and at today's trip, though she is yet to win at either. She has been out of form on her last two starts and is 0-5 on good ground. First-time headgear is now tried while dropping back in trip from her latest run.
Steps In The SandKTB Fit 40/100
Steps In The Sand is a useful performer who has run well enough in recent starts without winning. Has won once from four runs at Downpatrick and the trainer has a modest 3% strike rate from 33 runs here. Steps up in trip today having been unsuccessful in two previous attempts at this distance.
KTB verdict
Samba Train is the KTB Selection. A smart performer who won a maiden at Punchestown last time before unseating, he handles good ground and benefits from a trainer with a 20% strike rate at Downpatrick. The step up in trip is the main question but his held-up style should see him delivered at the right time if the leader falters. Cobra Queen looks the chief danger with an uncontested lead and a strong trip record, while Joya Del Mar, Shannon Bank and Poetic Twist are the other main threats on course form and recent consistency.
KTB Selection Samba Train
This is the narrative read of the 3:43 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Who is likely to make the running?
Cobra Queen is the only front-runner and should get an uncontested lead according to the lone-leader pace shape.
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Downpatrick?
Shannon Bank’s trainer has a 38% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 2.96 from 16 runs.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Six runners are fitted with first-time headgear: Joya Del Mar, Cobra Queen, Billie Frechette, Camlin Park, Gangster Granny and Oh Janey. Miss Lia is also in first-time headgear.
Which horses have previously won at Downpatrick?
Joya Del Mar has won twice here, Camlin Park won on his only visit, Gangster Granny has won twice here, Theflyingbee won his only start here, Oh Janey has won here and Steps In The Sand has won here once.
Which horse has the best recent form at the trip?
Cobra Queen has three wins from four starts at today’s trip.
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