3:08 Downpatrick
The 3.08 at Downpatrick is a 12-runner Lily O'Hare Memorial Handicap Hurdle over 2m1f165y on good ground. It brings together a mix of useful and fair performers, several of whom have shown ability at the track, though the KTB Fit scores suggest a race with limited depth and several question marks over trip, ground and current form. The top-rated horse on KTB numbers stands out as the selection, while the remainder of the field features a cluster of mid-50s and lower ratings that reflect modest recent efforts or patchy course records.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay dividends. With the majority of the field, including all five principals, tending to be held up and produce their efforts late, the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from around the home turn. The key question is whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough to capitalise on the predicted steady gallop without being caught out by the lack of pace on.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Pralognan KTB Selection63/100Useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Downpatrick and returns here off a break with first-time headgear.
- 2Kalsman52/100Kalsman is a useful performer with a solid course record, having won here from eight runs, and he arrives in reasonable form after a placed effort last time.
- 3Augusta George52/100Useful performer who has won once from seven starts at Downpatrick.
- 4Tropical Twist52/100Tropical Twist is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning at this track on good ground last season.
- 5Leitzel49/100Fair performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 6Parkgarve49/100Useful performer who has been placed four times from six runs at Downpatrick without winning.
- 7Fine Print47/100Fair performer who has been out of the frame on his last four starts and now tries first-time headgear.
- 8Barrogstown Girl47/100Fair performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par on her last two starts.
- 9Granlahan44/100Granlahan is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning.
- 10Gortmore Lady40/100Fair performer who has been placed three times from seven runs at Downpatrick without winning.
- 11Mount Hotham39/100Mount Hotham is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history yet has struggled to make an impact lately with three modest efforts this season…
- 12La Rocca Lass32/100Modest performer who has been beaten a long way on all five starts this year and now tries a first-time hood.
The contenders
Pralognan KTB Fit 63/100
Pralognan is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Downpatrick and now returns off a break with first-time headgear. He drops back in trip to a distance he has already won at, though he is 0-4 on good ground and that leaves a question mark. The trainer holds a solid 13% strike rate at the track from a big sample of 263 runs and the jockey has a 20% strike rate at Downpatrick from 15 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the steadily-run affair the pace shape suggests. Recent form figures read 5/135- and he carries a KTB Fit rating of 63.
Kalsman KTB Fit 52/100
Kalsman is a useful performer with a solid course record, having won here from eight runs, and he arrives in reasonable form after a placed effort last time. He drops back in trip today to something he has never tried, which poses a fresh question, while first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate from 242 runs at Downpatrick is a clear negative, as is the jockey's 5% strike rate from 61 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has won twice from ten starts on good ground. Recent form figures read 61-903 and he carries a KTB Fit rating of 52.
Augusta George KTB Fit 52/100
Augusta George is a useful performer who has won once from seven starts at Downpatrick. He drops back in trip today having failed to place in three previous attempts at this distance and showed little on his most recent start. The trainer has a modest 2% strike rate from 46 runs at the track, though the jockey has a 17% strike rate from 59 rides here. Usually held up, though with medium confidence in the run-style, he has one win and two places from six starts on good ground. Recent form figures read 826/0- and he carries a KTB Fit rating of 52.
Tropical Twist KTB Fit 52/100
Tropical Twist is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning at this track on good ground last season. He has been below that level since returning from a break and his two previous runs over today's trip brought no joy. The yard's solid 18% strike rate at Downpatrick from 931 runs offers some encouragement, as does the jockey's 18% strike rate from 170 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has one win and one place from three starts on good ground. Recent form figures read FP-541 and he carries a KTB Fit rating of 52.
Leitzel KTB Fit 49/100
Leitzel is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has placed on good ground and at today's trip without winning either, and now makes his first start at Downpatrick. The trainer holds a 7% strike rate here from 89 runs, though the 5lb claimer has a 0% strike rate from 15 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has been competitive on good ground without winning. Recent form figures read 3000-0 and he carries a KTB Fit rating of 49.
The rest of the field
ParkgarveKTB Fit 49/100
Parkgarve is a useful performer who has been placed four times from six runs at Downpatrick without winning. He drops back in trip today having been placed three times from five starts at this distance and has shown competitive form on good ground. First-time headgear is now applied and he carries a KTB Fit rating of 49.
Fine PrintKTB Fit 47/100
Fine Print is a fair performer who has been out of the frame on his last four starts and now tries first-time headgear. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground but remains winless after 33 runs. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate here from a big sample while the drop back in trip asks a fresh question and he carries a KTB Fit rating of 47.
Barrogstown GirlKTB Fit 47/100
Barrogstown Girl is a fair performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par on her last two starts. She drops back in trip today having not tried this distance before while making her first appearance at Downpatrick. The trainer has a modest 2% strike rate from 52 runs at the track and she carries a KTB Fit rating of 47.
GranlahanKTB Fit 44/100
Granlahan is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. He drops back from 2m6f today having been placed once in two runs at the shorter distance and has handled good ground creditably with two placings from five starts. The trainer holds a 6% strike rate from 36 runs at Downpatrick while the horse makes his first appearance here and he carries a KTB Fit rating of 44.
Gortmore LadyKTB Fit 40/100
Gortmore Lady is a fair performer who has been placed three times from seven runs at Downpatrick without winning. She has shown some competitiveness on good ground and at this trip but her recent form has been patchy and the first-time headgear is now needed. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate here adds a further negative and she carries a KTB Fit rating of 40.
Mount HothamKTB Fit 39/100
Mount Hotham is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history yet has struggled to make an impact lately with three modest efforts this season. He showed nothing on his only previous run here and has been beaten on all three starts on good ground. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question while the trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Downpatrick adds little confidence and he carries a KTB Fit rating of 39.
La Rocca LassKTB Fit 32/100
La Rocca Lass is a modest performer who has been beaten a long way on all five starts this year and now tries a first-time hood. The trainer has only one run at Downpatrick so far which is too small a sample to judge while the jockey also makes his debut at the track. She steps up in trip on ground she has failed to handle in five previous attempts and carries a KTB Fit rating of 32.
KTB verdict
Pralognan stands out as the KTB Selection. A useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Downpatrick, he returns off a break with first-time headgear and drops back to a distance he has won over, with the steadily-run pace shape likely to suit his held-up style. The trainer's solid record at the track adds further encouragement. His main dangers are Kalsman, who has a good course record and arrives in reasonable form, and Tropical Twist, whose yard has a strong record here and who showed his best form when winning at the track on good ground last season. Augusta George and the remainder of the field face stiff tasks on current form and the balance of the KTB numbers.
KTB Selection Pralognan
This is the narrative read of the 3:08 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first appearance at Downpatrick?
Leitzel, Granlahan, Barrogstown Girl and La Rocca Lass are all making their first appearance at Downpatrick.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Pralognan and Kalsman are both wearing first-time headgear.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Downpatrick among the principals?
Tropical Twist's trainer Gordon Elliott has an 18% strike rate at Downpatrick from 931 runs.
Which runner has won at this track from the fewest starts?
Pralognan won here from one start.
What is the going record of the selection Pralognan?
Pralognan is 0-4 on good ground.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies