2:45 Ayr
A Class 6 handicap over 7f50y at Ayr on good ground brings together a field of largely modest performers where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 62 and 39. The top five in the KTB ranking are separated by only six points, underlining how competitive the race looks on paper despite the modest overall level. Black Rock Beauty heads the KTB figures and is the selection, while several others bring solid course knowledge or recent placings that keep them in the picture.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strongly positive and a strong gallop is anticipated. Carmel Valley and Kelpie Grey are both likely to contest the lead early from their respective draws, which could set the race up for those racing with cover. The key question is whether the pace collapses late on good ground, in which case the hold-up performers drawn towards the middle will be best placed to pick up the pieces.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Black Rock Beauty KTB Selection62/100Modest performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and two places from four runs on good ground.
- 2Kelpie Grey58/100Modest performer who has won twice at Ayr from 18 starts and also has three wins from 13 starts at this trip.
- 3Carmel Valley57/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency on this track, finishing placed on two of three starts here including a recent second.
- 4Catton Lady56/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with two placings from her last three starts.
- 5Pal Joey56/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 6Yaaser54/100Yaaser is a limited class performer who has been consistent enough in recent Class 6 company without winning.
- 7Novak53/100Modest performer who has been a regular at Ayr and usually gives his running, finishing second and fourth on his last two visits here.
- 8Tropez Power53/100Tropez Power is a limited performer on the balance of his 50 career runs and recent form figures of 6-6889.
- 9Gressington51/100Modest performer who has been running to a similar level this season without threatening to win.
- 10Keep Me Stable49/100Limited horse who has won once from six starts at Ayr and also has five wins from 35 runs at this trip.
- 11Joshuas Dream43/100Limited horse who has shown very little in eight runs and was well beaten on all three starts here.
- 12Stoneywell42/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and now tries headgear for the first time.
- 13Albeyours39/100Limited performer who has shown bits of ability on the all-weather but has struggled on turf.
The contenders
Black Rock Beauty KTB Fit 62/100
Black Rock Beauty is a modest performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and two places from four runs on good ground. She has won over today's trip and now tries first-time headgear after two modest efforts. The Richard and Peter Fahey yard posts a 15% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.67, though Oisin Orr's 9% strike rate at the track from 176 rides is below average. She acts on good ground with one win from four starts and two placings, while the drop in class is a positive. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is expected to benefit if the strong pace materialises as anticipated.
Kelpie Grey KTB Fit 58/100
Kelpie Grey is a modest performer who has won twice at Ayr from 18 starts and also has three wins from 13 starts at this trip. He steps up from 6f today having shown very little in recent runs with a string of modest efforts. The Jim Goldie yard has a 10% strike rate at Ayr from 3607 runs while Paul Mulrennan is 14% from 1195 rides here, both solid records at the venue. He has two wins from 12 starts on good ground with five placings and the course-and-distance profile is respected. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to set or share a strong gallop in this field.
Carmel Valley KTB Fit 57/100
Carmel Valley is a modest performer who has shown some consistency on this track, finishing placed on two of three starts here including a recent second. She has failed to land a blow in four runs at this trip and the latest form figures suggest she is vulnerable to anything improving. The Katie Scott yard has a 9% strike rate at Ayr while Jason Hart is operating at 14%, both solid established records at the track. She has been placed once from two starts on good ground without winning and her three runs at Ayr read 3rd, 2nd and 7th. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, she is sure to be prominent early.
Catton Lady KTB Fit 56/100
Catton Lady is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with two placings from her last three starts. She drops back from a mile to a trip where she has been placed three times from six attempts, while she also has a win and two places from five runs on good ground. The Michael and David Easterby yard has an 11% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.04 and Joanna Mason posts 13% from 104 rides here, both solid. With no course form on record she relies on her recent consistency. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she could be well suited if the anticipated strong pace collapses.
Pal Joey KTB Fit 56/100
Pal Joey is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He drops back to a trip he has placed at before and tries first-time headgear, while the yard and jockey both have solid records at Ayr. The Ben Haslam stable is 18% at the track with an A/E of 1.37 and Aiden Brookes is 14% from 29 rides here. He has one win from nine starts on good ground with two placings and the drop in class is a potential help. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the draw in stall 9 looks workable.
The rest of the field
YaaserKTB Fit 54/100
Yaaser is a limited class performer who has been consistent enough in recent Class 6 company without winning. He has a solid record at Ayr including two course wins from 14 runs and also holds four wins from 33 starts at this trip. Usually held up, he has three wins from 19 starts on good ground with seven placings.
NovakKTB Fit 53/100
Novak is a modest performer who has been a regular at Ayr and usually gives his running, finishing second and fourth on his last two visits here. He drops back from a mile today having won four times over this trip earlier in his career. He has been placed twice from nine starts on good ground and his nine runs at Ayr read 4th, 4th, 2nd, 5th, 4th among others.
Tropez PowerKTB Fit 53/100
Tropez Power is a limited performer on the balance of his 50 career runs and recent form figures of 6-6889. He has won at this trip but is only placed once from nine starts on good ground and now tries headgear for the first time. The yard has a 15% strike rate at Ayr while David Allan is 12% from 668 rides here.
GressingtonKTB Fit 51/100
Gressington is a modest performer who has been running to a similar level this season without threatening to win. He has won at this trip in the past and has shown some competitiveness on good ground, though the first-time headgear is now needed after a string of ordinary efforts. His sole run at Ayr resulted in a fourth.
Keep Me StableKTB Fit 49/100
Keep Me Stable is a limited horse who has won once from six starts at Ayr and also has five wins from 35 runs at this trip. Recent form is patchy but she did finish second here last time and handles good ground well with four wins from 15 starts. The trainer's modest record at the track is offset by the horse's own course connections.
Joshuas DreamKTB Fit 43/100
Joshuas Dream is a limited horse who has shown very little in eight runs and was well beaten on all three starts here. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up in trip for the first time. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Ayr.
StoneywellKTB Fit 42/100
Stoneywell is a modest performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and now tries headgear for the first time. He has placed on good ground and at this trip but remains winless after eight runs. The trainer is still seeking a first Ayr winner from seven attempts while the jockey has a solid if unspectacular record at the track.
AlbeyoursKTB Fit 39/100
Albeyours is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability on the all-weather but has struggled on turf. He drops back to a trip he has won at before while sporting first-time headgear. The trainer remains without a winner from seven runs at Ayr though Daniel Tudhope brings solid course experience.
KTB verdict
Black Rock Beauty is the KTB Selection. A modest performer with a win and two places from four runs on good ground, she drops in class, has won over the trip and now tries first-time headgear from a workable draw. The yard's solid record at Ayr adds to the appeal for a horse who is usually held up and could be ideally suited if the strong pace collapses late. The main dangers are likely to come from Kelpie Grey and Carmel Valley if the front-running pace holds up, while Catton Lady and Pal Joey are the best of the other hold-up types in a race where several can be given a chance on their best days.
KTB Selection Black Rock Beauty
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Carmel Valley and Kelpie Grey are both front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many course winners are in the field?
Kelpie Grey has won twice at Ayr, Yaaser has two course wins from 14 runs and Keep Me Stable has won once from six starts at the track.
Which runners are trying first-time headgear?
Black Rock Beauty, Pal Joey, Tropez Power, Gressington, Joshuas Dream, Stoneywell and Albeyours are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer record at Ayr according to the supplied stats?
Ben Haslam has an 18% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.37 from 57 runs.
Which horse has the most wins at this trip?
Kelpie Grey has three wins from 13 starts at this trip while several others have placed or won over the distance.
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